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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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As others have mentioned. Miserable runs this morning. Like previous mild winters, any forecast amplification is rapidly watered down. 

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21 minutes ago, IDO said:

It is a bit of an oxymoron as a pressure rise over Europe per se is more likely to bring milder temps. We would need a Scandi high to get colder temps so I assumed when you said "hope for coldies" that was what you were implying?

For example: 1860372693_gfsnh-0-384(10).thumb.png.53f060a2ed4291cec317734061275c94.pnggfsnh-15-384.thumb.png.12bed3e09da7931db2d10217cf5c5456.png

*Admittedly an extreme example and unlikely but you get my point!

Agreed, but as i suggested, its the building of higher pressure through northern Europe, Polewards, that is the point of interest. That is currently absent, so to see that pressure expected to rise is the first step towards a Scandi high is it not?

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2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

These runs generally look really bad for cold weather in the UK. Out of the 18Z GFS, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECM the 18Z GFS probably looks the best of a bad selection

03/01/2020 18Z GFS +384 hours

h850t850eu.thumb.png.cff332522314c2d98408491dfb9c06fa.png

Although mild for UK and western Europe there is a big area of high pressure over Russia and a deep cold pool there. All it needs is for that high to push west or the Azores high to move to Scandinavia but more likely the cold pool over Canada will dominate and force more low pressure through the UK and keep that cold over Russia instead

04/01/2020 00Z GFS +384 hours

758303654_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.421bf80e6b1dd96a62d5053fde7765a7.png

This midnight GFS run just looks dire for any cold prospects really over the whole of Europe. Apart from Iceland in the -5C isotherm the rest of Europe is ridiculously warm with those greens and yellows everywhere. It looks like only NW Scotland is below 0C at 850hpa and the "heatwave" continues across most of Europe.

04/01/2020 00Z ECM +240 hours

ecmt850_240.thumb.png.4571c493dc0d25046ee25775951f4196.png

Although at a different time to the GFS runs this ECM run also looks dire for cold in the whole of Europe. Even Iceland is above 0C at 850hpa. Looks like the UK is the mildest compared with average with those yellow colours showing up.

Although less stormy than 2013-2014 winter so far this one is panning out in a very similar way with all the cold locked up in Greenland and Canada "blowing up" the jet stream and sending one low pressure after another towards NW Europe and keeping a Euro high really in place too. If this carries on we could be contesting one of the mildest winters on record, if not even going for the record itself.

Finally 06Z GFS run complete. The +384 hours chart on this one looks like it could evolve into a colder pattern.

h850t850eu.thumb.png.109f1b34dc0d63f7ff6da5d362596618.png

Notice the beginnings of what could turn out to be WAA pushing northwards towards Greenland. That should mean all that cold air over Greenland and the Arctic will be pushed out. Most likely around the High to the east which should also push northwards with the WAA to sit over Scandinavia. Although it looks like a mild chart again this one is much better than the 00Z GFS chart as it has potential to bring in cold east or NE winds a few days on from this if it evolves correctly.

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

. Scandi high signal has also dropped significantly.

Completely disagree with this, hence the posts made by myself and others displaying the anomaly chart predictions. They clearly suggest a rising in pressure over northern Europe/Scandinavia northwards. The trend suggests an evolving pressure rise in those regions. This is why you should look to the Anomaly charts to spot any emerging trend, that way you wont get lead up the garden path between the wildly changing op runs.

Successive NOAA anomaly chart runs over the last 3 days have clearly signalled increased pressure over those regions. No Scandi high yet, and indeed one might not build, but the point is that IMHO these charts are suggesting one is likely, IF they continue the current evolution of strengthening it.

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6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Agreed, but as i suggested, its the building of higher pressure through northern Europe, Polewards, that is the point of interest. That is currently absent, so to see that pressure expected to rise is the first step towards a Scandi high is it not?

Yes, in theory, but not seeing any forcing, just highs moving in the flow and therefore unlikely to sustain even if they reach as far as Scandi, which seems of low probability with that angry tPV? But as you say, glass half-full optimism in the midst of some pretty dire wintry charts is not a bad thing! Just wish I could be that hopeful!

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, in theory, but not seeing any forcing, just highs moving in the flow and therefore unlikely to sustain even if they reach as far as Scandi, which seems of low probability with that angry tPV? But as you say, glass half-full optimism in the midst of some pretty dire wintry charts is not a bad thing! Just wish I could be that hopeful!

Agreed.... the path to a Scandi high might well never be completed, but IMHO the signs are that the first steps are likely to be taken. Of course only time will tell, but for "coldies" (i am not one btw) there is some gathering evidence to be hopeful about. We will see.

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Posted (edited)

I think smelling salts might be needed to view the GEFS!

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a wretched set of ensembles for cold . Normally you can rely on those well into FI to throw up something .

Things can only get better !

Edited by nick sussex

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12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Agreed.... the path to a Scandi high might well never be completed, but IMHO the signs are that the first steps are likely to be taken. Of course only time will tell, but for "coldies" (i am not one btw) there is some gathering evidence to be hopeful about. We will see.

Or, in the PC terms I'm more familiar with...'marginally less suicidal'?:oops:

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Morning peeps 😊

Happy new year to everyone, rather cloudy at the moment here in East London but feels less cold than it did yesterday mainly due to the wind.

A new year and a new chase here we are back waiting for any signs of proper winter. To me from the latest runs looks like the outlook is still mild and wet at times more specially in the north where it could be quite gusty as well. I know a lot of recent posts have touched on the Euro high and it's positioning and there is a lot of speculation at the moment, from my eyes ( I am no weather expert) I think 3 things are going to be important to get this high to Scandinavia for us to have an opportunity for us coldies. 

Firstly some kind of trough low pressure has to form to the south or southeast of us as this will then exert energy to push the high north. Without this it's difficult to shift as the high has no push on it and we end up in the same position as we started.

Secondly there is a lot of energy running over the top of us ( i.e. A lot of low pressure pushing from west to east hence the northern parts getting rain and the wind. Till we don't get any break from this the high pressure is not going to find a place to move north in situation as there is too much energy. 

The two situations above are like the jigsaw and have to happen at the perfect time with each other. It's then we will have a chance for migration to Scandinavia of the high. This is what's been difficult so far and it would be something like the above we need to look at happening as we go forward.

The 3rd important element is the cold in Europe. To be honest where is it? there is nothing there that will lift the eyebrows. This is another. Important  part of the jigsaw if we are to import winds from a E or N/E element then the source from where this air is coming from has to be cold to an extent that when it reaches us we can benefit as well.

So this is my thinking going forward keep an eye on European temperatures and see where they are heading also keep an eye on the energy both to the south and north.

At the moment if I put my hand on my heart I am not convinced yet of anything wintry coming. Having said that patterns have changed suddenly and can do anytime. Let's not loose hope or be downbeat it will come eventually and I am sure the waiting will pay off the only question that remains is when?

hope you all have a great Saturday 

THE 2020 SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND  IS ON

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

All the best 

regards 😊😊😊😊

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50 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Completely disagree with this, hence the posts made by myself and others displaying the anomaly chart predictions. They clearly suggest a rising in pressure over northern Europe/Scandinavia northwards. The trend suggests an evolving pressure rise in those regions. This is why you should look to the Anomaly charts to spot any emerging trend, that way you wont get lead up the garden path between the wildly changing op runs.

Successive NOAA anomaly chart runs over the last 3 days have clearly signalled increased pressure over those regions. No Scandi high yet, and indeed one might not build, but the point is that IMHO these charts are suggesting one is likely, IF they continue the current evolution of strengthening it.

I don't think I can see any Scandinavia high in the coming days. Rather the opposite too much low pressure running over the top of us. That is unless there is some dramatic change 😊

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Completely disagree with this, hence the posts made by myself and others displaying the anomaly chart predictions. They clearly suggest a rising in pressure over northern Europe/Scandinavia northwards. The trend suggests an evolving pressure rise in those regions. This is why you should look to the Anomaly charts to spot any emerging trend, that way you wont get lead up the garden path between the wildly changing op runs.

Successive NOAA anomaly chart runs over the last 3 days have clearly signalled increased pressure over those regions. No Scandi high yet, and indeed one might not build, but the point is that IMHO these charts are suggesting one is likely, IF they continue the current evolution of strengthening it.

I understand what you are suggesting mushy, you may be right. True the NOAA chart for 6-10 days ahead as trended to more suggestion of a ridge in the NE Europe/Scandinavia area. I am less sure that what you suggest is likely to happen. Put in betting terms I would say 15-20% of this doing as you suggest. Interesting though.

You are correct about using the 500 mb pattern predictions though for a better and a less volatile idea on what the upper air is likely to show in the 6-10 day time frame. Me=Sitting on the fence for the moment!

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As I usually say - those noaa charts are always a day old. Yesterday the signal was much stronger than today....the gfs ensemble mean in Oslo is only at 1020mb later on in the run, so there are plenty of ensemble members not backing it too (more than half in fact).

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18 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I understand what you are suggesting mushy, you may be right. True the NOAA chart for 6-10 days ahead as trended to more suggestion of a ridge in the NE Europe/Scandinavia area. I am less sure that what you suggest is likely to happen. Put in betting terms I would say 15-20% of this doing as you suggest. Interesting though.

You are correct about using the 500 mb pattern predictions though for a better and a less volatile idea on what the upper air is likely to show in the 6-10 day time frame. Me=Sitting on the fence for the moment!

Yep, thats understood, and on my page this morning i rated the chances of a cold evolution at 20% , but that up from 0% 3 days ago! We will have to wait and see if this progresses any further but its something to watch, and is in line with the Buchan spell for late Jan/early Feb..

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I think for any cold pattern to establish in the next 15-20 days we will need to see a reversal of the last 2 GEFS suites which have trended away from the idea where as last nights 18z threw up an almost unanimous suite in terms of cold POTENTIAL.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think for any cold pattern to establish in the next 15-20 days we will need to see a reversal of the last 2 GEFS suites which have trended away from the idea where as last nights 18z threw up an almost unanimous suite in terms of cold POTENTIAL.

Frustration all round, I'm like many here hanging on every run for patterns +10 days away. Glass half full now starting to look half empty, desperate times call for a sudden warming. 

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28 minutes ago, Griff said:

Frustration all round, I'm like many here hanging on every run for patterns +10 days away. Glass half full now starting to look half empty, desperate times call for a sudden warming. 

That’s winter 2019/20 for you!

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uncle barty loves to party.

i can see records for warmth being broken this month really reminds me of winter 1998 after the super el nino.

139918999_ECM1-240(6).thumb.gif.ca9f278368b4438b19a616dd739110ea.gif

ive got a feeling this winter will come down to so close but yet so far.

that vortex is on steroids relentless but not as wet as it has been down here in the sunny costa del southcoast.

it would seem most of the seasonal models have been correct.

im not sure that bloody northeastern pacific ridge does us much favours everytime i see it there every winter then my hopes are dashed.

if we go back to 09/10 winter the north pacific sst were cold the warm pdo is not great thing at all.

looks like glacier point was spot on with his indain ocean dipole ideas.

hats of there.

as posted above there's always some hope, but this will take something pretty strong to shift this current pattern.

 

 

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Well let's stick the clusters in too. 

To me, D10 looks a bit of a tipping point 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010400_240.

Progress by D15:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010400_360.

What we're seeing in the chance of the Atlantic getting stuck to our west. Quite a good chance. 

If that is achieved then what would follow is either:

- a succession of long drawn mild southerlies if the ridge extends well south into Europe - or - 

- a slow intrusion of colder and colder air initially from the south-east

However the line between these two scenarios in winter is extremely tight, once the Atlantic is shut out by an Eastern block. 

So I think coldies have a least got a shot from the set-up as we get into the second half of January. Still probably asking a lot for a strong easterly though, best chance of snow * if any * will be battleground type snow. 

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It is a right old rut at the moment, we only get tentitve signs of height rises to the NE but then a few runs later its gone again. 

I can't see much sign of a pattern change of a zonal jet right over us. We can't even get much polar air at the moment as the jetstream angle is unfavourable. 

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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well let's stick the clusters in too. 

To me, D10 looks a bit of a tipping point 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010400_240.

Progress by D15:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020010400_360.

What we're seeing in the chance of the Atlantic getting stuck to our west. Quite a good chance. 

If that is achieved then what would follow is either:

- a succession of long drawn mild southerlies if the ridge extends well south into Europe - or - 

- a slow intrusion of colder and colder air initially from the south-east

However the line between these two scenarios in winter is extremely tight, once the Atlantic is shut out by an Eastern block. 

So I think coldies have a least got a shot from the set-up as we get into the second half of January. Still probably asking a lot for a strong easterly though, best chance of snow * if any * will be battleground type snow. 

I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ? 

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Hi peeps 😊

Dear oh dear just had a read on Gavs January outlook and a sneak preview on February. It's best if you don't look at it although that far ahead is just for fun anything past 5 or six days is gospel but just a general trend outlook. Anyway looks as if this pattern is going to continue although after mid January it may be that high pressure gives us some frosts. Just the slightest chance high may drift to Scandinavia, however the chance of it staying there are slim as low pressure pressure to our north will flatten it.

Just to add salt to the wounds sneak preview into February shows  no sign at the moment of a pattern change continuation of south westerlies and rain.

Whether the above will pan out we shall see but it does not make exciting reading 😪😪

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3 members viewing the thread says it all.

Its difficult to post anything that doesn't fall into the moan category.

The clusters suggest there will be some kind of attempt at a seceuro but until the flat and rampant jet slows down there is next to zero hope of a high lat block gaining traction.

The wait goes on.

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