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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Strong Winds slowly easing for most during this evening and overnight but rain and in some places heavy, will continue for southern parts for a few hours moving slowly eastwards and effecting Eastern areas later this evening, clearing away during the early hours to the east but heavy showers following behind in some places, dry spells too.. winds likely to become very strong for the western Isles of Scotland later this evening and for a time tonight gusting 50-60mph here perhaps reaching 70mph this swathe of very strong winds transferring to Shetland later tonight into tomorrow gusts of 50-60mph perhaps a little more here for a time.

Icon.. 👇

960849804_12_15_ukwindvector_gust(1).thumb.png.66a6022025c90609baf8387b06827c9d.png

939919569_12_24_ukwindvector_gust(1).thumb.png.42d6f9e6de8b0c3a599804e62f85e6a6.png

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1631709543_12_15_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.c6f3c8e062d27bc2f44ba36a3a8c77cd.png

Tomorrow looks calmer for most but a disturbance running across the southern portion of England and wales bringing showery rain perhaps a little wintriness in this on hills west to east through the day with some fairly gusty winds associated with this at times mostly dry elsewhere except Scotland with wintry showers around here. 

12_24_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.cad160b7e3568ff30a7938a3e42f2892.png

As for the weekend and beyond high pressure looks set to build ofcourse with a central pressure of around 1048 millibars a very intense high which will be sat over the southern part of the UK in particular but influencing the weather for all with much drier weather light winds and frost and fog in places into next week too by the middle and the end of next week signs are high pressure will move westwards with some unsettled weather effecting the north but with northwesterly winds likely then temperatures won't be particularly mild and some snow mostly on hills further north is possible. 

Monday next week.. 👇

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Tuesday.. 👇

329105377_EUROPE_PRMSL_126(9).thumb.jpg.a8eab7508a2255b88354ca220a15f604.jpg

Thursday.. 👇

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25th..👇

1100986690_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(13).thumb.jpg.6a550d176b1c48c40fc1419a6695657e.jpg

26th..👇

1737901546_EUROPE_PRMSL_234(14).thumb.jpg.7da52a3144e0eee2129334cc7c3074d5.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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Good looking ECM 240 chart. But how often do those day 10 charts verify?

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Would love to see day eleven but this is ok.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.8efa10527e6427dd611c2bc5467f2396.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.c9dc3c16898ef545d0df81fb074082f7.gif

pressure building in behind it.

Yes, what happens next over towards Greenland could be interesting! 

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T144 for the big 3. Ecm t240 is good viewing but you can see why ecm goes on to show what it shows compared to gfs if you look nw. Ukmo is in the middle imo. Need to see this unfold over the next few runs. Still good viewing and nice to be in the rollercoaster 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

C0505373-ED9E-4466-8CC8-4DF4555E58F2.png

07C23B5A-42E4-4B06-A6AC-A13BCA2F9C06.png

AF1B4BAD-1541-4B62-AD3C-B59E2E641A2F.png

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Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

It's quite a swing from this morning and has you say day 10  is light years on the models.hope springs eternal but give it 72 hours to see where it sits etc .good to look at tho I guess 

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Evening all 🙂

Well, the 12Z ECM OP has awakened some interest on here and no surprise.

The way it handles the weekend HP is very different from GFS 12Z OP which builds a strong HP but then has it retreat fairly quickly SW before moving ESE into Europe and keeping the UK in a mild flow.

With ECM the HP hangs on and then splits at T+192 with part going SE into Europe and part SW into the Atlantic. Neither remaining cell is strong enough to resist the trough sinking south into the UK with the colder air following.

Worth noting UKMO has a much more intense LP over the south of Iberia than ECM or GFS

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30 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

Neither do days 7-8 or 9

Overall, as far as we can realistically see ahead we have a big mid lat high setting up over the Uk in the coming days.
 

There is small but real chance the pattern will allow a good retrogression of the high allowing a potential block to set up and bring in some sustained wintry weather. 
 

As ever we need some luck to get things moving in the cold direction, but the current outlook at least has a little potential - versus a straight/flat west to east zonal flow. 
 

keep your eyes peeled but don’t expect anything is my mantra 🙂 

Edited by chris55

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29 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

You're not being a doom monger. Just being realistic and pragmatic. 

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GFS0z big blocking 

image.thumb.png.8197550e0297dc9690285a1d7a082bfe.png

 

Edited by Dennis

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20 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Need to see these eye candy charts to come inside 120 hrs to have any kind of faith in them as good as they are to view!

You’re  just hunting for a like from sceptical 🤣🤣😜😜

Edited by That ECM

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

we have to start somewhere pal. ..and these are as good as it gets for the UK. [email protected] signals. .

and eyeing all development  in both upper layers /and geopotential  graphics. ..

we would have to be SERIOUSLY unlucky  going forwards now! 

Completely agree about starting somewhere and tbh after the winter or autumn so far (can’t decide what it is) surly something will change soon. Let’s get this high in and see where it goes, you just never no we may hit jackpot but don’t be expecting that especially with day 9-11 charts etc and you will more than likely be disappointed imo 

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Eps-

I'm gonna have to chuck in a big fat BOOM! !

 

the dynamics  are fraught-

with uk/nw  euro outbreak! !!

 

and twinned with a holding pattern...and a terrific  1 to perhaps  get locked int- for a change! !!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10.png

Nice n blue bbrrrrrrr a good lock in of. Cold air if I'm looking at that correctly tight isobar? 

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Just now, Snowfish2 said:

Nice n blue bbrrrrrrr a good lock in of. Cold air if I'm looking at that correctly tight isobar? 

Its a pressure anomaly not temps 

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Awesome mean... Day 10 looks to be lining up quite a potent cold shot... Dare I say it, could we be mentioning a wee bit of the white stuff before much longer... The ens most definitely on the way down also.. I've got a feeling another good 18z run is a looming. 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

aberdeen_ecmsd850.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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cartes...

also very pretty! !

 

@500 geos. .12z

EEM1-216.gif

EEM1-240 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar

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16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Eps-

I'm gonna have to chuck in a big fat BOOM! !

 

the dynamics  are fraught-

with uk/nw  euro outbreak! !!

 

and twinned with a holding pattern...and a terrific  1 to perhaps  get locked into- for a change! !!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10.png

Temp anomaly.🥶

ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.3388ef9f149f4964c380cac07ac62328.png

gefs for same time.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.e2678cf29228f9c7c5f9701ba8a12552.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.a5788bb18d51aebc7ea3336bd4756589.png

onward and upwards.

 

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The Ext EPS still rather disappointing with Euro heights dominating - though possibly nudging a bit further north.

Hopefully that northward extension continues in the next few suites.

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spacer.pngECM 12z @ 240

At long last the PV lobe over Canada takes a hike thus allowing our HP the opportunity to move West and North a bit without getting flattened.

With this favourable orientation of the High we probably get a decent cold Northwesterly or Northerly ......but for how long ?

 

 

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