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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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11 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Velocity potential component suggests more of a Phase 8 type projection to the MJO, which would also fit GWO cycling to falling AAM tendency.

 

@Glacier Point can the MJO trail the extratropical pattern rather then lead it? One would think that if its going to phase 6 now with lag of 10 days it would be reasonable to assume MJO is leading the way with Scandi through and mid atlantic/western EU ridge. Also would it be reasonable to assume teh Scandi trough will be here for a while looking at strat vortex displacement and EL Nino Jan/Feb climo? thanks in advance for answers

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22 minutes ago, That ECM said:

gens_panel_zvw2.png

 

50 % showing a flow from the nw to north at t240. That’s as good as it has been imo. Mean indicates this as well. 

Been years since we've had a decent northerly toppler. Usually they're just very filtered with it turning cold for a few days then back to a westerly regieme. 

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17 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Glacier Point can the MJO trail the extratropical pattern rather then lead it? One would think that if its going to phase 6 now with lag of 10 days it would be reasonable to assume MJO is leading the way with Scandi through and mid atlantic/western EU ridge. Also would it be reasonable to assume teh Scandi trough will be here for a while looking at strat vortex displacement and EL Nino Jan/Feb climo? thanks in advance for answers

Yes it can, if you have time for example read this link posted by @knocker 

 

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I don't think a northerly can be ruled out but I would say it's just an outside chance. Most runs I seen just shows the high retrogressing westwards but can't go northwards because of the PV towards Greenland. 

Does mean our winter weather gets even more dull as an ever cloudier WNW'ly will develop and frost and fog potential decreases. 

I do think the outlook is perhaps more promising than it has been for the last 3 weeks especially though. Will it be a missed opportunity? That's the fear. 

Edited by Geordiesnow
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11 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I don't think a northerly can be ruled out but I would say it's just an outside chance. Most runs I seen just shows the high retrogressing westwards but can't go northwards because of the PV towards Greenland. 

Does mean our winter weather gets even more dull as an ever cloudier WNW'ly will develop and frost and fog potential decreases. 

I do think the outlook is perhaps more promising than it has been for the last 3 weeks especially though. Will it be a missed opportunity? That's the fear. 

Quite possibly, it's been an exceptional winter even by the standards of the bar raising last 20 odd years.

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1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Velocity po

However, if the tropical signal persists into February, then look...

Phase 8: FebruaryPhase8gt1500mb.thumb.gif.d9bf8c044facc0fc12a81afb5a531134.gif

Phase 8 with ENSO filter:FebENMJOphase8gt1500mb.thumb.gif.27ea05ec5d38443c2338a15eab522330.gif

Looking at the RMM plots though, there is little sign that the tropical signal will persist into phase 8 though. It looks like dying off in phase 7, therefore i don't think we have any chance of these analogues coming off.

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17 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I must be on another planet?? Cannot see the reason for all the pessimism 1604580158_graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_(3).thumb.png.57c5df28f6c07d00990dc5b9d901c523.png Theme still remains - higher pressure gradually moving west and things turning cooler / colder from the NW / N lets just focus on that stage first before trying to write it off as a "toppler" :oldgood:

I agree mate these are the best set of ensembles we’ve seen this winter , loads of decent runs in there on the GEFS . Like you say let’s wait and see . If the 12z’s continue down the same path then happy days . There’s nothing to say the op run won’t  jump ship on the next few runs to one of the colder ensembles. See you in a couple of hours ??

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Judah Cohen has recently posted on twitter something that has upset the Americans, regarding "strong #PolarVortex/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event with positive AO predicted for late Jan & early Feb that favors an overall mild pattern across the N Hemisphere" https://t.co/eR9cGXO74r

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10 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

RMM plots are something of a blunt tool - and will not capture neither lagged influence of poleward westerly momentum transports nor low frequency influences. The suggestion is that the MJO may appear to be weaken during late January, but other measures may be far more instructive.

Without knowledge of the exact dates used, the MJO - 500mb anomaly composites are an even blunter tool.

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Rogue run or a new trend? I've been monitoring these CFS runs lately and they seemed pretty consistent for cold/ average Feb until this latest update

cfs-1-2-2020.png

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The one thing I’ve always wondered .

We see these MJO composites for each month but when you’re either at the start or the end of the month how much cross over would there be .

 

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Looking forward to the next runs, they are  nearly always colder than the midnight runs. 

Maybe gfs can throw out a colder run from the pack like last night, and I'm tired of ecm throwing out mild operationals at the end of its run again. 

Anyway expecting some eye candy over the next few hours..... 

Edited by SLEETY
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13 minutes ago, Dennis said:

icon12z sees a HP building possible behind the PV-lob image.thumb.png.42b299437475936559b4310f79b49823.png

High pressure doesn't move East from the US into Greenland  -that's not how Greenland HPs are formed. 

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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I can't believe I'm finally seeing this during winter 2019-2020

AO Chart

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c714876588c073d4f106adb4ae350d70.gif

NAO Chart

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.151fdb4c0e3f5fbb4e9cc5937f74f3b1.gif

Looks like both the AO and NAO are finally heading negative. The cold may finally be coming and the winter we could have had if it were not for that polar vortex and the IOD.

Directly contrasts what Judah Cohen is suggesting.

He is  suggesting strong PV /+AO garbage into Febuary.

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Directly contrasts what Judah Cohen is suggesting.

He is  suggesting strong PV /+AO garbage into Febuary.

 

One thing I have noticed is the stepping back of what used to happen, Autumn seems later and the quietening down of the Atlantic doesn't happen now until late March/April.

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