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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Just now, That ECM said:

This particular run is giving the high more chance to go north. Is it right? 

9548E11E-61A8-4BD6-BB8B-0E703A05CFD1.png

Yes the PV weakening to the nw and pressure rising towards the ESB.better so far

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes the PV weakening to the nw and pressure rising towards the ESB.better so far

That is always a possibility, a transient ridge, the problem is that for many runs at around D10 the tPV starts to cycle around back to Greenland and collapse any heights. Can we get a synoptic that stops the migration of that tPV?

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Potential! Or perhaps potential? 

I think we'll see a few steps forward and a few back over the next couple of days, but the door remains open 👍

gfsnh-1-252.png

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

That is always a possibility, a transient ridge, the problem is that for many runs at around D10 the tPV starts to cycle around back to Greenland and collapse any heights. Can we get a synoptic that stops the migration of that tPV?

Yes it looks a close but no cigar run.still better profile at least

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JFF buy into this if your happy to be disappointed if it doesn’t show this evening😄 I’m loving this way forward tho👍👍

BD37CADE-6798-4709-9920-8E6746C09D91.png

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ECM clusters this morning do still show the possibility of something briefly colder from the NW:

image.thumb.png.9361653902c28a1fa08f23576dc0daf5.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011600_288.

Soon goes back to +ve NAO like we've seen all winter sadly:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011600_360.

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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

JFF buy into this if your happy to be disappointed if it doesn’t show this evening😄 I’m loving this way forward tho👍👍

BD37CADE-6798-4709-9920-8E6746C09D91.png

I guess it's possible at least, I'm surprised how close it keeps very cold 850s

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Standard winter deep freeze for Greece/Turkey:

image.thumb.png.2c1c1adafbacd2cab9feeee58ba31fbf.png
 

Edited by mb018538

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the best ideas i see after 23rd coming image.thumb.png.d7568f0e6f0b28cdb8365d3da027252f.pngimage.thumb.png.fb476dfbe9a15a316ef0267f266d1cc5.png

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4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

the best ideas i see after 23rd coming image.thumb.png.d7568f0e6f0b28cdb8365d3da027252f.pngimage.thumb.png.fb476dfbe9a15a316ef0267f266d1cc5.png

Looks fairly consistent to my inexperienced eye, will gladly accept any other interpretations

iconnh-0-120.png

gfsnh-0-120.png

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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Standard winter deep freeze for Greece/Turkey:

image.thumb.png.2c1c1adafbacd2cab9feeee58ba31fbf.png
 

Yep.bit of a Stealers wheel job,cold to the left of me cold to the right here we are!!!😒😒

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yep.bit of a Stealers wheel job,cold to the left of me cold to the right here we are!!!😒😒

That block holds until the end of the run too, shame we're in milder no man's land, at least there are possibilities. 

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Looks like a nice bit of cold and snow heading towards it's natural winter home..

image.thumb.png.8b6fae7dabe943f25355930e17b67fc9.pngimage.thumb.png.a63de9f958b35ece53ce2cbc6bf5b8ec.png

.GREECE 😭😂

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The best that can be said for the GFS 06 hrs run is the lack of consistency upstream between it and the earlier 00hrs run upto day ten .

The last thing we want to see is the pattern upstream seamingly set whilst the models are throwing up underwhelming solutions .

 

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Dear oh dear oh dear...is February becoming the new Smarch: barely an anticyclone's fart away from a BFTE or a barbecue!?:oops::help:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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One good thing to say about that 6z run is, high pressure rules the roost right out the end. The next best thing, being heights at this point have devoloped quite strongly over scandy, with lower heights to the South, so at least that would offer up probabilities! Other than that... Our garden path must be as long as the M6.... But hey ho, let's keep being lead up it... 😂

gfs-0-384.png

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Control  again  gives us a northerly blast   developing lovely

image.thumb.png.c530e1b1580c289aeafcaac52bc7af2e.png      image.thumb.png.a0b0916fca69c281f3c9a724eb2cf3ce.png    image.thumb.png.806498529b8eb2c7db4d2733089d74ed.png

Edited by weirpig

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Today NCEP will be putting out their February forecast for the USA.

That will throw up clues as to what we might see in Europe aswell . If they go for a cold eastern half of the USA that would suggest a pattern change over there which will effect us .

The issue of course is a plunge of cold there can fire up the jet , if we see a more  amplified pattern a lot of that energy would be heading further south which might promote high pressure further north in the Atlantic .

There are generally two sorts of evolutions which promote cold downstream . We can either see the cold digging south over the more ne eastern areas , those nor easters, low pressure running ne and amplified promotes a decent mid Atlantic ridge so downstream northerlies in Europe , normally a split PV.

Or for example an elongated PV running ne sw , that helps to develop high pressure towards Scandi .

Of course for the cold to be sustained we’d need a signal for retrogression.

Either way we need a shuffling of the NH pattern as we seemed to have been stuck in a rut for the winter so far .

 

 

 

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Control  very much on the cold side  of the ens   however certainly not on its own  with a small cluster bringing proper winter uppers over the country     snow row also on the rise   

image.thumb.png.b94ad4000124a734a32e745fbc79206d.png

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best yet...'could be argued'..

the surge remains. ...

MT8_London_ens (4).png

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Ok ,we have very high pressure close for at least 6 /7 days , then signs that the Atlantic will creep back in ,but will it be mild or will some lovely 850 temp be pulled s east or south, lovely  i mean minus 6c or below  ,we have startd the  day on a bit of a downer, my hopes  are this afternoons gfs will go back cold and tonights ecm at day 8 at least shows a north west flow with the high pulled back further west ,not asking much ,  wood shed is next on my list , a good old talking too  ,and then fingers crossed  cheers .

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The height anomalies are perfectly aligned to MJO Phase 6 January composites. Now can they match phase 7 after? 

gensnh-21-1-180.png

Capture1.PNG

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Capture.thumb.PNG.7b9cfb01ddf102a6b119d1d6d676cf7b.PNGCapture2.thumb.PNG.d56618352886871b8584b0757f71d0ed.PNGCapture3.thumb.PNG.e5cd61000b8b93a5780a0b02cf84b0e3.PNGCapture4.thumb.PNG.e5f43235ae15ffafe1e24ff0f4c3ccc2.PNG

This weekend looks beautiful for walking! Lets enjoy this weekend first before worrying about what happens next week, things might look very different for better or worse but this coming weekend is the closest to "winter" its been 🙂 

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Standard winter deep freeze for Greece/Turkey:

image.thumb.png.2c1c1adafbacd2cab9feeee58ba31fbf.png
 

Getting beyond a joke now 

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5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Getting beyond a joke now 

That's what they get from a UK or NW Europe High - movement of cold air south from Russia or Eastern Scandinavia. Part and parcel.

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