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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Posted (edited)

Ok January enough already. Tuesday midnight it’s going to be 12 degrees or so down here. The reason for the ridiculously mild night is the t850 passing over as shown on the screen shot below.🤢 keep hunting in fi for something better but at the moment I can’t see it on the output apart from the odd perb. Jeez this is tough going for us coldies at the mo. We need a WTF moment but all we are getting is a I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad every 6 hours😩😩🤣

1DFA77DE-E3B3-42E8-AD0F-7DFB313DF49A.png

2F000862-5692-4097-8D6A-38B787EA8574.png

Edited by That ECM

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Hideous ecm, with the high building in the wrong place towards the end and turning very mild again

This is looking like an exceptional month if your interested in seeing if the highest CET can be broken, for January already at 6.7c looks like getting warmer in the next week amazing. 

No sign of anything in the models to show a big change maybe happening. 

Have to be patient for the next two weeks. 

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Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK 

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12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Evening all, a bit of a review regarding the above post sent earlier. The chart below from the latest Canadian model run looks promising. Much colder airmass moving SW into Eastern Europe around the high developing to the NE. We need to see the Atlantic trough dig deeper with an alignment NW/SE , this will help back the flow and bring the colder air ever so close to the Eastern shores of the British Isles. Looking at the winter jet profile on this run , this would favour this scenario. Todays GFS run earlier showed this but the latest run has more energy moving poleward as does ECM but certainly have room to revert as both do show some build in pressure to the east of the British Isles after next weeks stormy spell across Northern Britain recedes . Next week looks very mild for many with temps returning to nearer normal the following week, possibly 20% chance of turning very cold. Should get an up -date tomorrow from our team.

C

winteroverview_20200103_12_240.jpg

Morning all, regarding the above post , GEM run this morning remains consistent in its outputs for the Atlantic trough to dig SE  with the prospect of the British Isles to tap into some wintry weather by mid-month. However, not much support from the other main models who generally have the energy moving poleward across NW Europe for some considerable time. However, there is enough doubt in some runs as recently shown regarding the eventually positioning of the European high. Will shortly get an update from our experts with their thoughts.

C

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted (edited)

Must admit, would be feeling more happy and confident if some of the anomaly charts, such as the NOAA ones, were to show a good signal for a European Trough to the South or East of the UK. Something that seems to be lacking at the moment. That would help I feel and easily encourage any Scandinavian High that may develop to the East of the UK to get propped up (off course, though, the positioning of the Lows and troughs to the South/South-East of us in Mainland Europe would be important as well as having Atlantic Lows to the West of the ridging going far enough South).

51775735-80B3-4280-A6A6-0780EE6ED75C.thumb.gif.e52c126114e7a89795a079389562ac6c.gif

However, even should nothing that cold or snowy occur within the next sixteen days (perhaps away from Scottish mountains), doesn’t really mean no cold and snow can’t turn up at some point for the rest of Winter. 🙂 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Medium term modelling suggesting a mean pattern of the dreaded Euro High (Ext EPS). Can this transition to higher latitude blocking is the question that needs to be answered? 

No point sugar coating this but this morning’s NWP is another step backwards.  The one positive is that January is likely as to be much drier than December.

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9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Must admit, would be feeling more happy and confident if some of the anomaly charts, such as the NOAA ones, were to show a good signal for a European Trough to the South or East of the UK. Something that seems to be lacking at the moment. That would help I feel and easily encourage any Scandinavian High that may develop to the East of the UK to get propped up (off course, though, the positioning of the Lows and troughs to the South/South-East of us in Mainland Europe would be important as well as having Atlantic Lows to the West of the ridging going far enough South).

51775735-80B3-4280-A6A6-0780EE6ED75C.thumb.gif.e52c126114e7a89795a079389562ac6c.gif

However, even should nothing cold or snowy occur within the next sixteen days (perhaps away from Scottish mountains), doesn’t really mean no cold and snow can’t turn up at some point for the rest of Winter. 🙂 

I think we are very unlikely to see troughing to the SE, one problem is no Russian High this winter and just Low height all to the North . The set up just supports itself 

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These runs generally look really bad for cold weather in the UK. Out of the 18Z GFS, 00Z GFS and 00Z ECM the 18Z GFS probably looks the best of a bad selection

03/01/2020 18Z GFS +384 hours

h850t850eu.thumb.png.cff332522314c2d98408491dfb9c06fa.png

Although mild for UK and western Europe there is a big area of high pressure over Russia and a deep cold pool there. All it needs is for that high to push west or the Azores high to move to Scandinavia but more likely the cold pool over Canada will dominate and force more low pressure through the UK and keep that cold over Russia instead

04/01/2020 00Z GFS +384 hours

758303654_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.421bf80e6b1dd96a62d5053fde7765a7.png

This midnight GFS run just looks dire for any cold prospects really over the whole of Europe. Apart from Iceland in the -5C isotherm the rest of Europe is ridiculously warm with those greens and yellows everywhere. It looks like only NW Scotland is below 0C at 850hpa and the "heatwave" continues across most of Europe.

04/01/2020 00Z ECM +240 hours

ecmt850_240.thumb.png.4571c493dc0d25046ee25775951f4196.png

Although at a different time to the GFS runs this ECM run also looks dire for cold in the whole of Europe. Even Iceland is above 0C at 850hpa. Looks like the UK is the mildest compared with average with those yellow colours showing up.

Although less stormy than 2013-2014 winter so far this one is panning out in a very similar way with all the cold locked up in Greenland and Canada "blowing up" the jet stream and sending one low pressure after another towards NW Europe and keeping a Euro high really in place too. If this carries on we could be contesting one of the mildest winters on record, if not even going for the record itself.

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So after last nights brief emergence from the dross of the last few weeks we’re heading back into drossville!

All the outputs have backtracked from the possible Scandi high with too much energy spilling east and any high now being centred further south .

The main theme of the winter so far is any amplification shown at the longer range fails to last more than a few runs .

So any further attempts at providing some relief for coldies need to be viewed with that in mind .

I think it’s too early though to be writing off January prospects . 

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Crikey! With uppers of circa 12C, one or two all-time records must be under threat...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, unlike on December 28, peak Foehn effect should coincide with peak insolation...🌡️

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10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Crikey! With uppers of circa 12C, one or two all-time records must be under threat...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, unlike on December 28, peak Foehn effect should coincide with peak insolation...🌡️

Yes , incredible and the models suggest another very mild period for the mid month so the Jan temp record could come under threat .

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Catacol said:

image.thumb.png.af578ea4b01edc09845897c169130546.png

image.thumb.png.8b42ab77af4c8ee5107963076ee68155.png

 

NOAA 8-14 dayer supports this too. IMHO theres growing hope for those seeking cold .  EDIT...i see diagonal red line has already posted this.

814day_03e.thumb.gif.a0fa8d17305b930f3ad98cbc20b54ed4.gif

Edited by mushymanrob

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18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Crikey! With uppers of circa 12C, one or two all-time records must be under threat...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, unlike on December 28, peak Foehn effect should coincide with peak insolation...🌡️

According to 'torro'
Daily temp record for Jan 7th is 15c reached in Rhyl in 1934 and St Abbs Head in 1989

The January record is 18.3, in Aber in 1971 and 1958, and Aboyne in 2003.

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GFS 06hrs not keen on moving Euro high pressure north,just drifting east and bringing unsettled weather

back to U.K. in 9 to 10 day stage.Nothing exciting for cold lovers.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA 8-14 dayer supports this too. IMHO theres growing hope for those seeking cold .  EDIT...i see diagonal red line has already posted this.

814day_03e.thumb.gif.a0fa8d17305b930f3ad98cbc20b54ed4.gif

I must be missing something as that looks like a classic zonal flow sourced from the tPV in its normal winter situ? It does not automatically follow that above average heights in the euro/scandi area means a scandi high? Compare it to the omnipresent winter spoiler, the Pacific High, and we can see the difference in gradients, suggesting the euro/scandi height anomaly is not even close to being as blocky as the Pacific high. Could be just wedges in the flow warming out the region? Looking at the 06z GFS at D10 there doesn't look much brewing in that region:

285023701_gfsnh-0-240(17).thumb.png.0ab52bc73b8b34414486573f59b5f202.png

 

Edited by IDO

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7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

According to 'torro'
Daily temp record for Jan 7th is 15c reached in Rhyl in 1934 and St Abbs Head in 1989

The January record is 18.3, in Aber in 1971 and 1958, and Aboyne in 2003.

Wasn't the 2003 record set on the 26th or 27th January 2003.

Here's the midnight chart Monday 27th January with those very mild 850hpa uppers

AVN_1_2003012700_2.thumb.png.1582d0250a741ba1dc2114c468d43d70.png

850hpa temps getting over 10C at this point. If anyone remembers this time they should all know what happened just a few days later

Midnight chart Friday 31st January 2003. Look how much different things are

AVN_1_2003013100_2.thumb.png.1915ea55bb975eb4663c015ded8071d7.png

A 20C change in the 850hpa uppers with the -10C isotherm over the UK and an Arctic blast with snow showers, especially in northern and eastern areas. Hope the same thing can happen this time around.

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2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wasn't the 2003 record set on the 26th or 27th January 2003.

Here's the midnight chart Monday 27th January with those very mild 850hpa uppers

AVN_1_2003012700_2.thumb.png.1582d0250a741ba1dc2114c468d43d70.png

850hpa temps getting over 10C at this point. If anyone remembers this time they should all know what happened just a few days later

Midnight chart Friday 31st January 2003. Look how much different things are

AVN_1_2003013100_2.thumb.png.1915ea55bb975eb4663c015ded8071d7.png

A 20C change in the 850hpa uppers with the -10C isotherm over the UK and an Arctic blast with snow showers, especially in northern and eastern areas. Hope the same thing can happen this time around.

yes,
18.3 on the 26th at Aboyne in 2003
and
18.3 on the 27th at Aber in 1958.

I mention the 7th because that was the chart general cluster posted and the daily record is 15c.

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I think I'm seeing similarities between this winter and that of 1989?:shok:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

My point being, that 1989 produced a stonking summer; and other years that produced stonking summers (1975, 1983, 2006, 2013 and 2018) all had outbreaks of colder weather, during February, March, April...We could be onto an eventual win-win here, mehopes!:oldgrin:

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

I must be missing something as that looks like a classic zonal flow sourced from the tPV in it normal winter situ? It does not automatically follow that above average heights in the euro/scandi area means a scandi high? Compare it to the omnipresent winter spoiler, the Pacific High, and we can see the difference in gradients, suggesting the euro/scandi height anomaly is not even close to being as blocky as the Pacific high. Could be just wedges in the flow warming out the region? Looking at the 06z GFS at D10 there doesn't look much brewing in that region:

285023701_gfsnh-0-240(17).thumb.png.0ab52bc73b8b34414486573f59b5f202.png

 

True, but its the progress of that chart suggests evolving heights in that location compared to previous charts. hence i said "IMHO theres growing hope for those seeking cold" , i didnt say nor suggest there was a Scandi high in place.
The main point is that from several sources, they are predicting pressure rising over northern Europe across Scandinavia , that has to be a good sign albeit a long way to go.

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3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I think I'm seeing similarities between this winter and that of 1989?:shok:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

My point being, that 1989 produced a stonking summer; and other years that produced stonking summers (1975, 1983, 2006, 2013 and 2018) all had outbreaks of colder weather, during February, March, April...We could be onto an eventual win-win here, mehopes!:oldgrin:

............ but 1976 , 1990, 1995, 1984, didnt have colder weather during feb/march/april... 🤨

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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

True, but its the progress of that chart suggests evolving heights in that location compared to previous charts. hence i said "IMHO theres growing hope for those seeking cold" , i didnt say nor suggest there was a Scandi high in place.
The main point is that from several sources, they are predicting pressure rising over northern Europe across Scandinavia , that has to be a good sign albeit a long way to go.

It is a bit of an oxymoron as a pressure rise over Europe per se is more likely to bring milder temps. We would need a Scandi high to get colder temps so I assumed when you said "hope for coldies" that was what you were implying?

For example: 1860372693_gfsnh-0-384(10).thumb.png.53f060a2ed4291cec317734061275c94.pnggfsnh-15-384.thumb.png.12bed3e09da7931db2d10217cf5c5456.png

*Admittedly an extreme example and unlikely but you get my point!

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

............ but 1976 , 1990, 1995, 1984, didnt have colder weather during feb/march/april... 🤨

Hence the word 'could' being in bold italics!😩:oldgrin:

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As per previous postings I was concerned over the erratic output of the 06z in FI, ripping the tPV to shreds when the 0z and 12z did not. Today it is back in line with other runs:

1511057210_gfsnh-0-336(9).thumb.png.5c61f3e7ad2bc5436ae0238a0a27d70f.png

What we should be expecting for most of January, a tight tPV at times. The two main mid-lat blocks (highs) remain the main features that the GFS has been modelling for days now, just hope the GFS has been consistently wrong, but logic says probably not...

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, regarding the above post , GEM run this morning remains consistent in its outputs for the Atlantic trough to dig SE  with the prospect of the British Isles to tap into some wintry weather by mid-month. However, not much support from the other main models who generally have the energy moving poleward across NW Europe for some considerable time. However, there is enough doubt in some runs as recently shown regarding the eventually positioning of the European high. Will shortly get an update from our experts with their thoughts.

C

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

In comparison to the above GEM run, the latest GFS picture from makes for a very mild Mid-Winter set up for most of Europe. A  Southwesterly flow dominates and by the look of the UKMO extended and ECM latest seems to have its backing. However, that's not to say GEM will be wrong, but looks like on its own. It will be interesting to view this evenings out-put  if it has changed its positioning. Our teams model does not show the same dominance of zonal flow shown by the big boys at day 10 and still hints at lower pressure zone to the SW and positioning of the Euro high not conclusive. Cold and snow prospects remain at 20%  for period 10-15 days, which I assume is low but not entirely out of the equation regarding their own out-put.

GFSOPEU06_300_1.png

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Terrible runs this morning. The only thing that’s looking good is my January CET prediction at this rate. Scandi high signal has also dropped significantly.

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