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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Judah Cohen and Michael Ventrice  seem to be obsessed with trying to trash the MJO as a false signal .

JC has now gone into pretentious twaddle mode with his Stratospheric Wave Reflection ! And MV earlier was droning on about westerly wind bursts , implying the MJO was false when the research shows WWBs are often associated with strong MJO events but crucially its often tropical cyclones aided by the MJO which help to induce the said WWBs in the first place ! 

The OLR ( outgoing longwave radiation) shows the  MJO signature and the expert at NOAA has stated the MJO exhibits a clear wave 1 pattern , so typically the area of increased and suppressed convection characteristic of the MJO.

They seem to be arguing that the MJO isn’t happening because other factors are happening at the same time . 

I’m not for a moment saying that MV and JC aren’t we’ll known experts but we seem to be dealing with a debate over what constitutes a real MJO event.

NOAA seem sure it’s a real one and have said they expect it to impact the pattern in the USA which in turn will have an effect on us in Europe downstream .

I suppose it’s a case of a wait and see .

Yes, all very complicated and I agree that time will answer this. Certainly murmurings in the suites of something occurring but too early to be sure. Need the echoes to get louder rather than fade away as they have done so far this winter. 

Certainly the Met update (today) for the month ahead, zero mention of any blocking, pretty much the status quo of euro high affecting the south and the north subject to the zonal flow (week 3-4). Not really a reflection of the MJO composites. So we will see...

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To be fair, the MJO event does appear to be lacking in certain components, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, which will limit its ability to influence our weather patterns.

So, we see the subtropical highs tending not to make it beyond mid-latitude status. Meanwhile, the tropospheric 'polar vortex' looks to become focused toward Siberia for a time, but without some HLB to its west, this makes for a very unstable N. Atlantic, with cyclogenesis there giving the UK a hard time tapping into much cold air.

You never know though, we could get lucky with a 'runner' into the base of the major trough to our NE. Not something to place bets on - just worth keeping an eye out for.

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22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ahh -gwan then!!.

finally  be see some  belly flippers via ensembles  ..

 

and Epson offering up a solution  to cold..

the bets are after initial  hp  encroachments. ..a transition  to a polar maritime  classic  northwesterly flow! !!

 

then as we gain. ..there is more than ample  for mlb  and a transfer to real polar outbreak! !!

 

with the givenue format  solutions  to perhappen a Scandinavian  block plot.

winter most certainly  may have a sting in the tail....with the very best saved  till last!!!

 

transition  definitely  today's byword! !!👌👍

MT8_London_ens (2).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11.png

ECM1-240.gif

ECH1-240 (1).gif

Finally an 850 chart for London with serious -10 members, time to get interested, again, finally.

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting you should say that . A lot of the debate surrounding the MJO is often what measure is the best judge . Be it OLR or some of the others . Even if we don’t get HLB we could see any mid latitude high edge west allowing the jet track se into the UK around the top of that .

Indeed - from observations it's become apparent to me that some events are more convection/precipitation-dominated (OLR/VP200 measurements), others wind pattern-dominated (zonal wind anomalies), while some find a good balance between the two. 

It generally seems (at least in my experience) that the more of these components are strong, the more impact the MJO event tends to be on N. European weather patterns if and when it travels past the Dateline.

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Plenty of support for Snow showers in the North around 27th -28th on the EPS.

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for OL3.

 

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7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Yes I wonder if the Welsh high pressure record could be under threat "Highest: 27 January 1992, Sennybridge, Powys 1049.2 hPa."  U120-21UK.thumb.gif.38a713b379cd17a7d0ad9aa69eba2752.gif icon-0-123.thumb.png.f059d4e98095398e2eb0961f49c311aa.png 

 

 

other pressure values on the rmets article "The Highest of the Highs ╦ Extremes of barometric pressure"

 

Will wait until tomorrows runs then I will probably end up opening a separate thread to monitor this as some around 1050 hpa popping up now, icon-0-114.thumb.png.e86a60ce8c7d07f2359caf62e49818e2.png  arpegeuk-2-108-0.thumb.png.2b128424bc9edf496d32436921ee3e16.png  

iconeu_uk1-2-111-0.thumb.png.ab8c6a56c30f603b856b24ed0a4f1694.png

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Pub run FI special developing?

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Plenty of support for Snow showers in the North around 27th -28th on the EPS.

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for OL3.

 

Look at all that cold air bottled up just north of Iceland, if only we could tap onto some of that.🤩

gfseu-0-174.png

gfseu-1-174.png

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Here she comes and about bloody time. 

 

Screenshot_20200115_222501_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.704e087ecd4315665c885bcc26251d75.jpg

 

 

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😍Here it comes!:clap:

gfseu-0-192.png

gfseu-1-192.png

gfseu-1-204.thumb.png.bf1dfbab5a6cd4283f399f254748c1a3.png

Edited by snowray

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This could turn into a stonker . Come on 🤞🏻

9A60640A-8AA1-484F-A904-CC8C13F4FF6A.png

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Look at all that cold air bottled up just north of Iceland, if only we could tap onto some of that.🤩

gfseu-0-174.png

gfseu-1-174.png

Well according the the pub run, we maybe about to..... 

image.thumb.png.63f03b3336c1a2966344e67ef43aa300.pngimage.thumb.png.7fe1d1784021fdac9a414df3ff7eb32f.png

This could be a fabulous run, but not to be trusted at this range!

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Wow this is going to see beastly cold descend, it has been many years since anything alike 60s were infamous for potent northerly airstreams.

3F5EA587-14DE-4429-97C6-C52414088E4D.thumb.png.f5847d3761257b0144bc99f46e660f59.png2E35CF0C-D2FC-4109-AC57-DDD0819DC711.thumb.png.4eda1dc0cc58edf03c83df87d45746c4.png

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gaining...

in both potency /directory. ..

much more defined. .

and in curing a more direct  arctic shot...as per previous  supports. .

and the elonegated 'now siberian master lobe '...is cold holding. ...to say the least...

and is making eyes @us

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-1-204.png

Edited by tight isobar

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BULLSEYE!    -   -12c into Scotland

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Not to far out in FI either

Cold frosty high then the snow showers from the north a few days later 

 

Boom! !!!

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I am looking for a weaker pv over NE Canada on this run and i can tell you that over the last couple of days this has waned somewhat and if this continues then the hp cell in the Atlantic has a chance of breaking through that and gaining amplitude into Greenland

here is tonight's 18z at 168 v 18z 192 last night and the 18z 216 the night before

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.801d9e53de6fba725299c50630e456a5.png853758930_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.87a5a0e622998cc9a2069f113d3b5d97.pnggfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.5716be42774828bb6b2b062cdf838162.png

now tell me where most of the upgrades and what area have been substantial

to our NW.

 

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9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well according the the pub run, we maybe about to..... 

image.thumb.png.63f03b3336c1a2966344e67ef43aa300.pngimage.thumb.png.7fe1d1784021fdac9a414df3ff7eb32f.png

This could be a fabulous run, but not to be trusted at this range!

Well at least it starts to kick in at D7/D8 and not right out in deepest FI la la land, so big upgrade on the 18z, not sure if it can be trusted or not but In the past 18z has shown up pattern changes on the odd occasion that have verified so we could be lucky....it would make a welcome change for things to go our way for once in a blue moon.

 

210-574UK.gif

222-580UK.gif

Edited by snowray

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