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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 minute ago, Dennis said:

it can be a surprising last week of Jan- -lets say we believe the MJO 7/8 then greenland will be the main motor to support cold from NNW


Or like Ventrice suggests the models are skewed? I hope they aren't. 

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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I would take this. Not as much energy coming from the nw giving the high a chance to go north. Gfs is much improved but ukmo looks better than gfs as T144.






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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO suggests so me the UK will be under an anticyclone for quite a while..


Yep id agree also PV to the north west not wavering

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If we see more amplification upstream aided by the MJO then downstream  the Scandi trough and its associated colder more unstable air will be pulled further west into the UK.

So best not to worry too much about the later outputs . Let’s see how things evolve over the next few days .

If we expect the MJO signal to verify we had a strong phase 5 from the 10th to 14th that should be showing up in the models. Does this tally with the composites?


If it does then we can have better confidence in phase 6 and 7? Judah Cohen also believes the MJO remains a non-driver and is now saying it is a "PV reflection" AKA Stratospheric wave reflection; currently in progress (pros maybe able to decipher this?). I am struggling to match the composites with the MJO cycle using a 10-day lag! Maybe missing something? 

I suspect the tPV apparently at its most brutal will be tough to break through for any HLB'ing. That tPV looks a beast till into February as currently modelled by GFS; D13:


Getting any heights near Greenland looks a hard call with that profile.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets hope GFS is wrong in FI as its absolutely diabolical ...

Quite different to UKMO at 144 so we will see.

It does look a bit suspect to me in FL to blow a strong 1040 high away like that!

but that is FL and there is no point at looking that far ahead anyway

in the mid term 144> is that the high retrogresses west,i mentioned  this the other day with a ten day mean chart(think it was the eps)that the high has a possibility of moving west to allow a feed from the N/NW,this isn't out of the question viewing the 12z gfs,lets hope it gains some traction for us all to benefit from it 

Nicks post above is along the lines what he mentions what could happen and with the MJO moving into a favorable orbit,it gives us a chance.

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18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets hope GFS is wrong in FI as its absolutely diabolical ...

Quite different to UKMO at 144 so we will see.

I saw some stats the other day that say ECM & UKMO at 120 days is circa 95% / 93% accurate but that drop off v quickly to around 50% for anything after 168 +. O really wouldnt be too confident of anything over say 192. 


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A four member cluster supporting the op and control, the best:

anim_iql1.gif  anim_rwv9.gif


All are transient, if verifying in some variety, a short period of opportunity before the tPV chunks starts their journey back to our NW. Mean at D13:


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