Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

it can be a surprising last week of Jan- -lets say we believe the MJO 7/8 then greenland will be the main motor to support cold from NNW

 image.thumb.png.1502ca1f0a6b883db23458e9261b77d5.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dennis said:

it can be a surprising last week of Jan- -lets say we believe the MJO 7/8 then greenland will be the main motor to support cold from NNW

 image.thumb.png.1502ca1f0a6b883db23458e9261b77d5.png

Or like Ventrice suggests the models are skewed? I hope they aren't. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I would take this. Not as much energy coming from the nw giving the high a chance to go north. Gfs is much improved but ukmo looks better than gfs as T144.

34C77A5F-4331-4A69-A066-3B712EE27387.png

8353AB12-153E-4011-96CC-E2CE63DF3F6D.png

DC4C7A94-836B-41B9-A50E-0ED49B1AD64E.png

2171A7A5-8460-420C-A934-A1D4AF8D4013.png

8BFA750E-8392-4E97-9375-CFA09391D46E.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Or like Ventrice suggests the models are skewed? I hope they aren't. 

i think i follow the MJO signs ......image.thumb.png.5c6024e5e63a2340b3da9a094ececeb4.pngimage.thumb.png.828b6f1ebe7092ecd2616ab76913abf6.pngimage.thumb.png.acc9f09093332d7c9484e64330c9cada.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO suggests so me the UK will be under an anticyclone for quite a while..

image.thumb.png.02385e957f69777c577e707840f69ddc.png

Yep id agree also PV to the north west not wavering

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets hope GFS is wrong in FI as its absolutely diabolical ...

Quite different to UKMO at 144 so we will see.

Edited by northwestsnow
I
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If we see more amplification upstream aided by the MJO then downstream  the Scandi trough and its associated colder more unstable air will be pulled further west into the UK.

So best not to worry too much about the later outputs . Let’s see how things evolve over the next few days .

If we expect the MJO signal to verify we had a strong phase 5 from the 10th to 14th that should be showing up in the models. Does this tally with the composites?

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.46a32936694b3fe75e231886d189e000.gif

If it does then we can have better confidence in phase 6 and 7? Judah Cohen also believes the MJO remains a non-driver and is now saying it is a "PV reflection" AKA Stratospheric wave reflection; currently in progress (pros maybe able to decipher this?). I am struggling to match the composites with the MJO cycle using a 10-day lag! Maybe missing something? 

I suspect the tPV apparently at its most brutal will be tough to break through for any HLB'ing. That tPV looks a beast till into February as currently modelled by GFS; D13:

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.6b00cbdb7f0cc7091085b1d0d2c43c52.png

Getting any heights near Greenland looks a hard call with that profile.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets hope GFS is wrong in FI as its absolutely diabolical ...

Quite different to UKMO at 144 so we will see.

It does look a bit suspect to me in FL to blow a strong 1040 high away like that!

but that is FL and there is no point at looking that far ahead anyway

in the mid term 144> is that the high retrogresses west,i mentioned  this the other day with a ten day mean chart(think it was the eps)that the high has a possibility of moving west to allow a feed from the N/NW,this isn't out of the question viewing the 12z gfs,lets hope it gains some traction for us all to benefit from it 

Nicks post above is along the lines what he mentions what could happen and with the MJO moving into a favorable orbit,it gives us a chance.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets hope GFS is wrong in FI as its absolutely diabolical ...

Quite different to UKMO at 144 so we will see.

I saw some stats the other day that say ECM & UKMO at 120 days is circa 95% / 93% accurate but that drop off v quickly to around 50% for anything after 168 +. O really wouldnt be too confident of anything over say 192. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

A four member cluster supporting the op and control, the best:

anim_iql1.gif  anim_rwv9.gif

 

All are transient, if verifying in some variety, a short period of opportunity before the tPV chunks starts their journey back to our NW. Mean at D13:

gensnh-21-1-324.thumb.png.f15f7f8bc2cc6dbcff8ca3bb09200dff.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...