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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

39 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

And finally a look at the latest CFS 200hPa Velocity Potential Empirical Wave Propagation forecast. Red anomalies are indicating drier/inactive phase - no support for precipitation - and green is supportive of moisture and convection thus precipitation/active phase. So the chart clearly shows a very active MJO phase crossing the Pacific. It also shows the declining signal as the MJO moves eastward towards the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8, as RMM plots are currently showing). So for me, the Ventrice tweet seems to be misleading - but I would like to hear the views of Nick F on my take.

 

I do not think he is arguing that the MJO is not moving through the phases, he is questioning the scale. Possibly implying constructive interference from the WWB? The way the signal declines quickly when the WWB ends seems to support this:

1166394750_ensplume_small(1).thumb.gif.02e6f359aa15cae9b2c2ce91d9934af2.gif

So the movement from phases is as a result of the WWB forcing and that it is temporary and the MJO signal will be lost post-WWB. They are of course all inter-linked but interesting perspective and we will be able to reanalyse in the coming week.

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6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

1048mb on GFS 06z, close to record breaking.

GFSOPUK06_114_1.png

 

It's a monster high for sure. Shame when we finally get some strong high pressure over the UK it's here and gone within a few days....seems like in other parts of Europe they often get highs lasting a week or two. I know you can't compare like for like, but a longer dry spell would be welcome!

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ECM clusters showing something close to the OP at day 10:

image.thumb.png.d4b6350da72cb8a6d051309e65174db2.pngimage.thumb.png.af74a0f1e291f0d210949a1c64114200.png



Doesn't really play ball after though - no northerly on offer - perhaps some PM NW air for a time before something from the west:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011500_288.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011500_336.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011500_360.

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Poor GFS 6z for anyone looking for something wintry or lowland sleet snow.i think GP spoke about February being the month of a chance towards something more akin to what most want to see.heres hoping for sure??

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Eps Ext mean coming on board with that with each run .... wonder how cold we can get those uppers ..... that’s going to be the trick ..... a straw to clutch ....

Exeter have signposted this potential for days- 'snow on northern hills and possibly low levels at times during colder periods'..

I guess much depends on how the Atlantic behaves but the above is suggestive of PM attacks or north west topplers- probably the best we can hope for if honest.

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It's looking as if (taking account of the Beeb's latest missive) a European HP area will be the 'continuity candidate' as we approach month's end...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Nae looking too good, if it's (like me!) snow you're after?:oldsad:

Edited by General Cluster
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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter have signposted this potential for days- 'snow on northern hills and possibly low levels at times during colder periods'..

I guess much depends on how the Atlantic behaves but the above is suggestive of PM attacks or north west topplers- probably the best we can hope for if honest.

At the moment the colder air flow in FI more westerly than PM with a long distance to travel so watered down once hitting the UK:

anim_yvb4.gif

Cold rain even for favoured spots on the 06z run? Looks very zonal to me and not sure that we will get a strong NW'ly flow especially on the GFS and ECM looks similar (as above).

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8 minutes ago, IDO said:

At the moment the colder air flow in FI more westerly than PM with a long distance to travel so watered down once hitting the UK:

anim_yvb4.gif

Cold rain even for favoured spots on the 06z run? Looks very zonal to me and not sure that we will get a strong NW'ly flow especially on the GFS and ECM looks similar (as above).

6z is a dreadful run.

My post was in reply to Bluearmy who was referencing the EXT eps.

?

The reality is until we lose the darn euro heights its going to be a struggle to get even PM shots in but hope springs eternal.

Edited by northwestsnow
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13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It's looking as if (taking account of the Beeb's latest missive) a European HP area will be the 'continuity candidate' as we approach month's end...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Nae looking too good, if it's (like me!) snow you're after?:oldsad:

Looks very much in the wrong place? Pete ?.  Still going to be nice to get some calm dry weather

BFTP

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Ens  show  most trying to bring in a more mobile north west  pattern  after the demise of the high  Still obviously difficult to pin down  exactly how that well affect us on the ground     most of the ens  have brief north  and north westerlies  before being shunted away from the heights over Europe   a few however  give us very cold artic shots   with the pv over us.    could be back to wet and wild over the coming weeks. 

image.thumb.png.7ee9adf68f5e4223a73efc7ae70654f8.png

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The issue with the Ventrice tweet is it implies the MJO is a faux signal only there because of the WWBs.

When WWBs are often part of the cycle of an MJO . WWBs are part of the convective cycle within the MJO.

The research suggests that tropical cyclones aided by the MJO  help to induce WWBs , but also WWBs are more a part of strong MJO events .

Anyway in terms of the MJO there’s also a correlation between that and phases of the NAO .

Phase 7 for example , following that with a time lag of 5 to 15 days a high incidence of a negative NAO .

Overall phases 6 to 8 higher incidence of that negative NAO.

Phases 2 to 4 a higher incidence of a positive NAO .

Thats from research by ECMWF.

 

 

Thanks for clarifying Nick.

Whether the MJO signal is "real" or not, it is clear that the ECM has been playing catch up on the RMM plot. A week ago it had the MJO declining into COD in zone 6, yet now we see a proper phase 7 at high amplitude and some member even take into 8 now.

I would be pretty annoyed if we don't at least get a couple of days of Arctic Northerlies out of this.

 

image.thumb.png.8035f27fe79bdc12893e334973e09f0e.png

Edited by mountain shadow
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12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Thanks for clarifying Nick.

Whether the MJO signal is "real" or not, it is clear that the ECM has been playing catch up on the RMM plot. A week ago it had the MJO declining into COD in zone 6, yet now we see a proper phase 7 at high amplitude and some member even take into 8 now.

I would be pretty annoyed if we don't at least get a couple of days of Arctic Northerlies out of this.

 

image.thumb.png.8035f27fe79bdc12893e334973e09f0e.png

I think a 2-3 day toppler is favourite if not a certain outcome at some point before Feb 

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18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I think a 2-3 day toppler is favourite if not a certain outcome at some point before Feb 

It would be better than nothing, and at least the weekend and early next week will be cold with the first winter frosts for many areas, max temps looking pretty suppressed too.

120-580UK.gif

102-580UK.gif

Edited by snowray
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Does anyone else hate that phrase TOPPLER or is it just me lol?

we have no idea yet whether  we get a so called topper or something more substantial or nothing at all. There’s far to many so called weather experts on here imo. Ever wondered why the pros rarely go out more than a few days? It’s because they don’t know! There’s not enough consistency in models after a few days so why do people make out this or that is going to happen.

we look for trends good or bad that is it, yes I get very excited when I see cold charts appearing but I no as well as everyone else unless it counts down within a day or two it’s unlikely to happen and even then if it can go wrong in the uk it will.

looking forward to the next lot of updated models like the rest of us

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12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

April could be quite warm with that pattern. 2007ish. 

image.thumb.png.1fb203491e7975e121923595a2119b8c.png

We seem to be mirroring 2006/2007 quite closely at present and I'm having suspicions we could be looking at a very troughy and convective solar min summer. Here's hoping!

Summer 2007? Please, for the love of god, Noooooooooo!

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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

1048mb on GFS 06z, close to record breaking.

GFSOPUK06_114_1.png

 

Yes I wonder if the Welsh high pressure record could be under threat "Highest: 27 January 1992, Sennybridge, Powys 1049.2 hPa."  U120-21UK.thumb.gif.38a713b379cd17a7d0ad9aa69eba2752.gif icon-0-123.thumb.png.f059d4e98095398e2eb0961f49c311aa.png 

 

 

other pressure values on the rmets article "The Highest of the Highs ╦ Extremes of barometric pressure"

 

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Afternoon all ?

Midway through the winter cycle today (my birthday) and, as has been the case for most of my years on this Earth, wet and windy rather than cold and snowy is the outcome.

Looking forward, an impressive build of HP from Sunday from the Azores but, slightly surprisingly, it only lasts 3-4 days before declining back SW and allowing a more mobile and unsettled pattern to return. Yes, we may see some frosts and perhaps some fog which will be a shade of winter albeit not what many on here want to see.

The problem with the 06Z OP FI is the HP then heads back into Europe and we're back in a mild SW'ly pattern. A number of the GEFS Members handle that evolution differently with some taking the HP further west and allowing a quite potent N'ly to develop (coinciding with the MJO move into 7-8 I would think). Other drop the HP south or SE.

If you want some real eye candy, the current CFS monthly run for mid-February would please many. 

How might we get there? Interestingly, the repeated builds of HP do have a cumulative effect in terms of amplifying and slowing the Atlantic - I also note signs of a new warming on the GFS OP for later in the month which might, with all the caveats at my command and given the lag time, suggest mid-February onward (as others have suggested in their LRFs) will be the start of a wintry phase. Of course, so much can and probably will go wrong. 

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