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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

If you like the odd frost and dry weather then EC looks ok until the PV pushes the heighths Into Europe at day ten.for me it's boring and eating up winter

I thought it looked ok at day 10 a north wester about to pile in at day 11 with a ridge building north in the mid Atlantic. 

63B7D383-7958-4265-ABD9-DD291703FCB8.png

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ECM showing that the flat orientation of high over England could very easily drag some very cold continental 

air into the mix.Lot of chopping and changing still to come could be a good time to keep a very sharp eye on

precedings.

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I thought it looked ok at day 10 a north wester about to pile in at day 11 with a ridge building north in the mid Atlantic. 

63B7D383-7958-4265-ABD9-DD291703FCB8.png

I think at day eleven it probably won't like most of the run be there.my real point is we can't get a decent cold spell in and time is moving on.if a northwesterly is your thing then fair enough.

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So looks like high pressure is set to influence the weather although how much of an influence is still up to some debate. Most likely does seem to be the whole high won't land on top of the UK so eventually more cloud toppling in and making the high a more cloudy one. Some runs did have it more over us so chilly frosty weather is more widespread and the very odd run i seen has the high slightly to the east so picking up a more continental flow. Will the high retrogress to Greenland? History suggests no, I seen it for many years this type of set up and very rarely a Greenland high appears from this set up, anyways that lump of PV to the west of Greenland is not forecast to weaken so at this stage I don't think a Greenland high is likely unfortunately. 

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16 minutes ago, igloo said:

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

Granted it may not be cold enough to stop you from being homeless   however  I expect temps to be 3-5c  with temps dropping by night   not perishing  but much better than currently 

Edited by weirpig

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ECM looking great for something more seasonal, game on 

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Some nice settled bright weather on offer this weekend which will be very welcome to many i'm sure, also looking quite chilly in the morning!

Capture.thumb.PNG.de2d4d5121e5e2f37dea80b70b3e89c8.PNGCapture2.thumb.PNG.4e4107abd09bbf26b2cec807322ba961.PNG

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Extended EPS continue to show Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

The seasonal dynamic models might have have actually nailed this winter.

Edited by mulzy

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended EPS reverts to Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

What date do they go out to mulzy? 

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I can take the ECM mean... The high pressure perhaps remaining to the West, and possibly a feed of colder air towards the latter stages. 

EDM1-168 (1).gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Extended EPS reverts to Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

We are needing a flip in the medium term modelling now- at least after thur it looks mainly dry for a week or so.

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58 minutes ago, igloo said:

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

It’s generally below average and very frosty, here is for London City Airport over next 10 days on 12z ECM not dramatic but colder than anything we have seen this “winter”.

C0463EE5-074F-45CA-8FC3-061D5579E282.thumb.png.1c0532c3adc996f3b80ce1345a60767c.png

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3 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

What date do they go out to mulzy? 

They go out to 15 days and even at that range there is a strong signal for low heights to the north / northwest

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53 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just highlighting this section from Stewart's excellent post, looks like the GEM ensembles keen on this pattern (higher pressure from the pacific and also Atlantic and Siberian / Scandinavian PV

  be ttern to monitor moving forward fitting in with the MJO going through phases 5/6/7 with the higher pressure over UK gradually moving west allowing cooler / colder shots from the NW / N, my main interest lies with phase 7 which suggests the best chance for higher pressure near / over Greenland and possible E / NE erly

Can you post up the composites for a phase 7 amplitude>1 for Feb please - it wont let me on raliegh.wx.

image.thumb.png.3662046f421179097df230bef13433f9.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can you post up the composites for a phase 7 amplitude>1 for Feb please - it wont let me on raliegh.wx.

image.thumb.png.3662046f421179097df230bef13433f9.png

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather

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5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

Which site do you use please? - can't find one that actually works any more.

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11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

The models obviously don’t see this having too much effect - as stated above, they have been solid in showing heights falling away to the N/NW once the high retreats for a few days. Whether it resets back to winter thus far for the short or long term is the next hurdle to clear.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Which site do you use please? - can't find one that actually works any more.

WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The models obviously don’t see this having too much effect - as stated above, they have been solid in showing heights falling away to the N/NW once the high retreats for a few days. Whether it resets back to winter thus far for the short or long term is the next hurdle to clear.

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

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2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

I know mild and dull statistically wins out, but every time cold is modeled in FI, I'm told it won't pan out. Would be great for a lag to be picked up late and some unanticipated improvements towards the end of the month. 

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Its on course for 7 in early Feb and remember the lag effect also. Scandi high later into February the form horse for me.

image.thumb.png.caf8e6371f00f62877b3cdc780d4296c.png

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9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

Well the MJO is due to enter high amplitude phase 7 in 5 days time (19th)....even allowing some lag time, the extended gfs and ecm are running right out to the end of January now with nothing remotely showing or matching the 500mb averages....we will all be on tenterhooks.

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the MJO is due to enter high amplitude phase 7 in 5 days time (19th)....even allowing some lag time, the extended gfs and ecm are running right out to the end of January now with nothing remotely showing or matching the 500mb averages....we will all be on tenterhooks.

A quote from M Ventrice: “A westerly wind burst over the Date Line, with strong easterlies over the eastern Pacific is driving the big MJO rise. With no signs of the MJO via upper-level winds, this "MJO" event is likely to die off after the WWB ends as it's likely projecting onto the RMM PCs.”

Despite this other background signals are more hopeful so we may get forcing from another variable and with then peak PV likely on the wane soon that will of course help. The question is will it be too late for a wintry February? Hopefully not.

Source: 

(Click for full tweet)

 

Edited by IDO

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A bit better with some continental SE flows at times.

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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