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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)

ECM looking great for something more seasonal, game on 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Some nice settled bright weather on offer this weekend which will be very welcome to many i'm sure, also looking quite chilly in the morning!

Capture.thumb.PNG.de2d4d5121e5e2f37dea80b70b3e89c8.PNGCapture2.thumb.PNG.4e4107abd09bbf26b2cec807322ba961.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Extended EPS continue to show Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

The seasonal dynamic models might have have actually nailed this winter.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended EPS reverts to Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

What date do they go out to mulzy? 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I can take the ECM mean... The high pressure perhaps remaining to the West, and possibly a feed of colder air towards the latter stages. 

EDM1-168 (1).gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Extended EPS reverts to Euro heights and low heights over Greenland.  Back to square one!  

We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter.

We are needing a flip in the medium term modelling now- at least after thur it looks mainly dry for a week or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
58 minutes ago, igloo said:

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

It’s generally below average and very frosty, here is for London City Airport over next 10 days on 12z ECM not dramatic but colder than anything we have seen this “winter”.

C0463EE5-074F-45CA-8FC3-061D5579E282.thumb.png.1c0532c3adc996f3b80ce1345a60767c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
3 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

What date do they go out to mulzy? 

They go out to 15 days and even at that range there is a strong signal for low heights to the north / northwest

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
53 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just highlighting this section from Stewart's excellent post, looks like the GEM ensembles keen on this pattern (higher pressure from the pacific and also Atlantic and Siberian / Scandinavian PV

  be ttern to monitor moving forward fitting in with the MJO going through phases 5/6/7 with the higher pressure over UK gradually moving west allowing cooler / colder shots from the NW / N, my main interest lies with phase 7 which suggests the best chance for higher pressure near / over Greenland and possible E / NE erly

Can you post up the composites for a phase 7 amplitude>1 for Feb please - it wont let me on raliegh.wx.

image.thumb.png.3662046f421179097df230bef13433f9.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can you post up the composites for a phase 7 amplitude>1 for Feb please - it wont let me on raliegh.wx.

image.thumb.png.3662046f421179097df230bef13433f9.png

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

Which site do you use please? - can't find one that actually works any more.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.1d924086b5c1a18cfe7f12b331084b3e.gif and the temperatures... JanuaryPhase7gt12mT.thumb.gif.ed8e6796809faf0339872929b4e8dccd.gif

The models obviously don’t see this having too much effect - as stated above, they have been solid in showing heights falling away to the N/NW once the high retreats for a few days. Whether it resets back to winter thus far for the short or long term is the next hurdle to clear.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Which site do you use please? - can't find one that actually works any more.

WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The models obviously don’t see this having too much effect - as stated above, they have been solid in showing heights falling away to the N/NW once the high retreats for a few days. Whether it resets back to winter thus far for the short or long term is the next hurdle to clear.

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

I know mild and dull statistically wins out, but every time cold is modeled in FI, I'm told it won't pan out. Would be great for a lag to be picked up late and some unanticipated improvements towards the end of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Its on course for 7 in early Feb and remember the lag effect also. Scandi high later into February the form horse for me.

image.thumb.png.caf8e6371f00f62877b3cdc780d4296c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
WWW.FRENCHSCOTPILOTWEATHER.COM

 

As I mentioned in my earlier post the outlook does appear to tie in with the MJO and given that phase 7 isn't being shown until around another week or so it will probably take time for the models to pick up on any possible effects (also factoring in the usual lag times) 

Well the MJO is due to enter high amplitude phase 7 in 5 days time (19th)....even allowing some lag time, the extended gfs and ecm are running right out to the end of January now with nothing remotely showing or matching the 500mb averages....we will all be on tenterhooks.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the MJO is due to enter high amplitude phase 7 in 5 days time (19th)....even allowing some lag time, the extended gfs and ecm are running right out to the end of January now with nothing remotely showing or matching the 500mb averages....we will all be on tenterhooks.

A quote from M Ventrice: “A westerly wind burst over the Date Line, with strong easterlies over the eastern Pacific is driving the big MJO rise. With no signs of the MJO via upper-level winds, this "MJO" event is likely to die off after the WWB ends as it's likely projecting onto the RMM PCs.”

Despite this other background signals are more hopeful so we may get forcing from another variable and with then peak PV likely on the wane soon that will of course help. The question is will it be too late for a wintry February? Hopefully not.

Source: 

(Click for full tweet)

 

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A bit better with some continental SE flows at times.

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A bit better with some continental SE flows at times.

 

image.png

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
8 minutes ago, Don said:

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

It’s got Euro high stamped all over it.  Could be a very pleasant Spring.  Something to look forward to!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It’s got Euro high stamped all over it.  Could be a very pleasant Spring.  Something to look forward to!

Not exactly looking good for a spring cold spell that, but yes good news for those seeking warmth!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Not a bad looking day 10 ECM ens. going forward with cold piling up to the NE.

 

At least russian winter coldies should be happier.?️

EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.ba8d523258edfc7adab799114bbce60a.png

 

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