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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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41 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

We may have put you on the naughty seat for this, but we have no spare naughty seats available at the moment, so it looks like you’ll escape the chair! 😇

Since it’s quiet in here anyway (and that the level of my grumpiness is low), the post won’t be under threat from our magic disappearing potion. 👀

I think should the likely UK ridging next week get pushed back towards the South-West of the UK - which some models like the GEM and ECMWF, show as a possibility, then any North-Westerly flow that could spill over the top of the High Pressure might as well be an extremely high quality one. A potent North-Westerly flow with 850 hPa temperatures of -7*C and lower accompanied by low 500mb heights to bring an army of snow showers not only to high ground, but to lower levels too. Something a bit like the below:

C23671B6-36C1-4DC9-9358-80AC4675A135.thumb.png.87eb7ac504128b89eace05f83e406644.pngD6D3A37D-B83E-48FE-8F62-28440338B766.thumb.png.f049a4ddb5a998795437b8ef82b84f7e.png2628EBED-33A4-499D-A526-5AA1D2B60106.thumb.png.4963ffbedd6e630b7ac753588f4851f0.pngE8AFF044-A401-4442-9D19-78CC193AF6A3.thumb.png.63656a06e1215cc0dbe382d9f7cf5914.png

There are likely to be better examples, but something like that. An Arctic plunge, though, direct from the North could still happen - even if late January fails to produce this and have to wait until February or something for this to occur. (If any Northerlies do materialise at all this Winter. Just need the Vortex over the Canadian or Greenland area to pull its socks up and invade somewhere else for once!).

For a lot of the cold weather fans, there’s probably nothing much worse than having a measly Polar Maritime Westerly or North-Westerly flow containing 850 hPa temperatures of -3*C or -4*C with low level sleety rain showers. 😕

The charts you posted led to this:  PV over Greenland, no northern blocking, but guess what; heavy snow across northern England northwards even to low levels.

158929834_NOAA_1_1984011512_11.thumb.png.3acf0250b51ced3d37efa31ed9845e73.png

It was then followed by a famous polar maritime widespread snow setup a week later:  northern blocking too far away to influence the UK; PV over Greenland but polar maritime zonal, and guess what, the famous event when a zonal Atlantic flow delivered widespread snowfall across the UK even to low levels:

image.thumb.png.b5af405671270542484f47d54cddb0e9.png

Those charts would have cold lovers tearing their hair out when a zonal flow sets in, as it now nearly always means mild unsettled weather for the UK compared to how the above charts show that if a zonal flow orientates favourably and sets up a polar maritime flow it can bring much colder weather with snow across the UK without significant northern blocking and full fledged northerly or easterly flows.  It is just one of the worst aspects to zonal flows in winter for me, as it almost always fails to deliver anything other than what we have had this month so far.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The charts you posted led to this:  PV over Greenland, no northern blocking, but guess what;  heavy snow across northern England northwards even to low levels.

image.png

Fair point. The Vortex was strong to our North-West on that chart (as you say, the Polar Vortex over Greenland), and another area of it directly to the North of the UK. Having a dominant Vortex to our North/North-West clearly isn’t always bad for cold weather for the UK and can, in fact, I guess help add potency to any Polar Maritime incursions from the West or North-West. 🙂 I suppose what I probably should have said that for something longer lasting cold-wise, having a fair chunk of the Greenland/Canadian Vortex shifting to somewhere else (such as Scandinavia/Russia/Siberia) could be ideal. And allow stronger blocking opportunities to occur to the North and/or West of us. 

I think despite me saying that the Greenland or Canadian Vortex could do with invading another area, there does seem to have been possibilities from the models in the last few days for the Vortex over Greenland/Canada to drain some of its upper low heights away from that area and move over to the North-East of the UK. Something that could be temporary (as some have addressed the risk of the Vortex re-powering up to the North-West of us). But probably too far away to give too much notice to at the moment.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

  😒

😒

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Another record breaking intense High Pressure for Jan -

584 Geopotential Heights

9CE6F03F-1B16-4479-9829-B57CEBE76A71.thumb.png.fb0bfcb5e230da61df258296b7d42fb5.png

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gfs-0-192.png?12
The high has been pulled west leaving the doors open for a potent northerly (probably end up in Greece)

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image.thumb.png.4d5e4d54fbf034b7fc4eaee0ed0b3e30.pngimage.thumb.png.3afa2814156b4290bb2653fcc4edf95e.pngwill it go to greenland? 

Edited by Dennis

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1 minute ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.4d5e4d54fbf034b7fc4eaee0ed0b3e30.pngwill it go to greenland? 

gfseu-0-204.png?12

Probably not but the high is moving west still and opening the arctic door.

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13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-204.png?12

Probably not but the high is moving west still and opening the arctic door.

I'll be ridiculed for this but goes to show that all options are still available... Who knows, could happen? Better run for cold seekers 👍

 

I'll add, more runs needed but any gain in heights towards Iceland, and a move westward.... 

Edited by Griff

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5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This is the most exciting winter since last year in my considered opinion. 

🤣🤣 Well the 12z GFS coudnt be anymore bog standard winter fair imo.guess it's time to sit and wait😒😒

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42 minutes ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.4d5e4d54fbf034b7fc4eaee0ed0b3e30.pngimage.thumb.png.3afa2814156b4290bb2653fcc4edf95e.pngwill it go to greenland? 

Nope nada negative..

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Riveting gfs 12z if NW winds are your thing,at least it won’t be  so mild,but nothing really exciting regarding snow and cold😴

 

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Interesting to look at the 12z ensembles regarding high pressure... Will It sit over us, slip away SE or edge West as Steve M mentions! Edging West looks most likely currently, so I would say some colder shots from the NW, or dare I say it, the North remain a possibility! I wouldn't rule anything out, worth pointing out is exters thoughts on it becoming colder after next week with increasing frost, especially away from the NW. So most definitely, not all doom and gloom at this stage. 

gens-16-1-228.png

gens-20-1-240.png

gens-12-1-264.png

gens-12-0-264.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Maybe some potential for some colder WNW/NW Polar Maritime shots as the high moves position, but again at this stage it doesn’t appear it will be much other than a glancing blow with the Atlantic too strong. A bit of a worrying trend starting to emerge with the PV moving back to the NW too. One to watch.

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Still charts looking to build high pressure from south west and return the same way after 10 days or so

that of course is still up to change. One thing looks certain dry some frosts fog and single figures for most 

England looks to be the coldest.

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Although, by the dog-end of the GFS 12Z, it [the anticyclone] looks anchored down to the SW: my wait-for-a-flake situation goes on, and on. and on!😴🙄😁

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

158929834_NOAA_1_1984011512_11.thumb.png.3acf0250b51ced3d37efa31ed9845e73.png

It was then followed by a famous polar maritime widespread snow setup a week later:  northern blocking too far away to influence the UK; PV over Greenland but polar maritime zonal, and guess what, the famous event when a zonal Atlantic flow delivered widespread snowfall across the UK even to low levels:

image.thumb.png.b5af405671270542484f47d54cddb0e9.png

Those charts would have cold lovers tearing their hair out when a zonal flow sets in, as it now nearly always means mild unsettled weather for the UK compared to how the above charts show that if a zonal flow orientates favourably and sets up a polar maritime flow it can bring much colder weather with snow across the UK without significant northern blocking and full fledged northerly or easterly flows.  It is just one of the worst aspects to zonal flows in winter for me, as it almost always fails to deliver anything other than what we have had this month so far.

Just noticed your edit. 🙂 

Those above charts with your examples show how epic blocking isn’t always needed for some impressive cold and snowy weather over the UK. I admit that’s something else I didn’t really think about at the time when doing my post. But yeah, it is a shame it’s hard to get a cold, snowy, Atlantic zonal flow like that now. Not that it can’t ever happen again. Although it does seem when a zonal or Westerly flow sets in (unless I suppose it’s a reverse zonal flow with deep cold from the East), it easily seems more likely to bring milder weather than something particularly cold or wintry. There may have been some recent years where there were some decent, cold, Atlantic zonal flows, though can’t really think of any at the moment. If their have been any recently. (Except for some North-Westerly air streams bringing some cold-enough-for-snow showers here in the Midlands on a few odd occasions. 2010 being an example, and possibly during the Winter of 2017/18).

Maybe hopefully this Winter will still have some tricks up its sleeves for the cold weather enthusiasts. Especially considering there’s a fair portion of the season to go. 
 

Some drier weather looks possible within the next few days. An example from the latest GFS, UKMO and GEM below at 120 hours with High Pressure migrating over the UK.
C02AE5B2-0B5D-45DF-8496-D1FE5A175470.thumb.png.1ff47a6ab997bf5a76349add724a116a.png9571C067-B541-4247-9B1F-57C698AD2439.thumb.png.b4d14d047c22c797b80f79c9dfe34a55.png78BB16FF-5F5E-48DB-8471-BD5BC1C65E13.thumb.png.b9e936c2913a1f6d31c713a254cd1987.png

The length of this settled spell uncertain. Does look possible High Pressure may sink Southwards or perhaps get squeezed out West/South-West from the pressure of Lows running over the top of the ridging to the North, possibly with colder (perhaps wintry) weather developing from the North-West sector. The High Pressure dominated outlook in the closer range of the models should offer a break from the wind and rain that’s swamping the UK. Especially so over Southern UK, but Northern UK seeing a chance of some settled conditions, too. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding a bit more

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Here is an example of how a mid latt high can give a tonking, look at the one over the US here, Just imagine it in the Atlantic next to us, i know it wouldn't be as cold if it were in the Atlantic but could still be decent for us.

image.thumb.png.b6177605e0682434824a1b75042a0c22.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Quite a cold ecm  in the near term   frosts and seasonal weather   

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a cold ecm  in the near term   frosts and seasonal weather   

 nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.

ECM1-216.gif

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If you like the odd frost and dry weather then EC looks ok until the PV pushes the heighths Into Europe at day ten.for me it's boring and eating up winter

Edited by swfc

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