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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

For the last 4 days I have saved the 0z run for the 20th as this was suggesting the high over us, consistency is good. However the pv was shown to be different on each day. The last two screen shots are where ecm had the high going 4 days ago and where it thinks it will go now on the 21st. 

 

I would suggest that it was too keen for the ridge to go nw and move more of the pv east.  

C3CCA99C-6601-4E88-AEDA-089723F03DA0.png

CBC4C200-1EE4-406A-A71E-D2439326005D.png

2C1BB3E8-8381-4545-AAA9-A1325F310F9E.png

C5814A51-984C-47E5-885B-C72FDD430520.png

AF4C9B35-E1C0-4EB4-AE44-CB70EDBF7B3E.png

F56E7910-50E1-462F-9F89-B87DD2B61B0D.png

It’s the Pacific ridge it got wrong here without it our high doesn’t have the potential link up to make it further North. 

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Now, after December GEFS debacle, this obviously to be taken as a pinch of salt. But let's see if this time we are on the downward slope to a reasonably sustained period of weak westerlies.

Probably too early to be even thinking about reversals though.

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.7d09216d44c60f89a04d316d8e70dbd8.png

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

RE: above post. Looks like UKMO yet again comes on top again over the other models in the 144t range. At least this chart below shows some much colder upper air advancing into the Alps , however, not likely at this stage to produce much needed snowfall. We now await for further runs to see if the strong development of high pressure over Southern Britain starts to retrogress, maybe the UKMO extended chart will provide a clue .

UW144-7.gif

The UKMO extended follows a similar pattern to ECM run. Some ridging WNW but not enough amplification to allow a more direct Arctic source into NW Europe , however a bit of an opportunity for colder interludes into Scotland in the day 10 range. Still things can change rapidly post 144t for a change.

 C

ukm2.2020012100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Winter ahead with Greenland blocking? - to the MJO signs it should be shown up late Jan

 

image.thumb.png.b2e1ee7e522b7ca9fdc8c08e89cb9701.pngimage.thumb.png.191f332ff3ba7f3e52f8e859901840ea.pngimage.thumb.png.1060b684805c9a1aba54dfd87b87b6e7.png

 

 

That's last nights 18z run..


image.thumb.png.2d18263ff0ca7020c5fe25554dc00094.pngimage.thumb.png.69852b85b14fa6b2e8c0ea4b20c02bbb.png

00z Greenland pressure ensemble doesn't really show any appetite for developing a strong Greenland block. The outlying OP run with strong SLP isn't even a proper GH if you follow the 500mb heights. We might drag some colder air down temporarily, but at the moment it's not on the table.
 

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15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC bringing a 1045mb whopping anticyclone at day 7 ...

image.thumb.png.fe5baab9267f4f7de665281f41832623.png

Not sure but its very rare to see 1045 mb over the uk.

 

15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Goes against ECM as well ? 

D793E931-EEF1-466B-BEC6-493C44B02E5E.png

D75D83DA-55AA-409F-B131-25E1FF88A800.gif

 

15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL..

192

1040 mb sat over the UK

image.thumb.png.764b32bed745c5ec22261f804e405ff6.png

 

15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM allows this at T192 however.

image.thumb.jpg.aebb70a25086197734e433af7afe8b7f.jpg

Guys, cherry picking one chart from the whole run cannot be compared to the 6-14 day mean charts, c'mon you know better then that!

Those ECM charts you posted do not disprove what the NOAA charts are predicting, there is precious little contradiction at all as the whole ECM runs do not sit a high pressure over the UK all of the time like a previous GFS run that i mentioned did!.

The ECM runs are unsettled, in as much as they are mobile, with the high pressure moving around, these charts are very close to being in line with what the NOAA charts predict when you compare like for like - ie the whole run.

Its true that the latest NOAA anomaly chart has shifted towards a more short lived settled spell, but overall and despite high pressure domination, but the ECM is still in line with the NOAA charts, there is mobility, the high isnt static, thats the point.

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So the 06z GFS moves closer to ECM in terms of dynamics. It is very mundane and not very seasonal, just average fare with temps above average as a whole. Mostly a westerly influence from the high and at D10:

1437652571_gfseu-0-240(2).thumb.png.936e016c5865f7a6fa3af9e47ef435e8.png

The high sinking to Iberia rather than on the 0z when it was pushed east. The ECM sinking towards the Azores so relatively similar. The tPV a beast on this run at D11 so not sure we should be too confident in this run post D10:

1181906869_gfsnh-0-264(7).thumb.png.327d981a591a20f318d32f78fb0e2a7c.png

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Looking at the here and now   Strong winds to navigate across parts of the country today   anywhere in England/Wales will see high winds    however North Wales and the South West could see damaging gusts

image.thumb.png.1f9ca1324d41de7cd274869d93ffefd2.png

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Both ECM and GFS starting pressure rise from our southwest.And both sinking same direction at about 10 days

to be followed by north to northwest polar air.Will of course change over the next few days,but still frosty for 

some time followed by single figures.

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Anybody mentioned gfs being an outlier at 72 hours in regards to that mini low in the atlantic!!ukmo arpege and ecm separate it from the main low coming out the states where as gfs swallows it into the main low!!maybe thats what causes the gfs to be ever so slightly flatter between 144 and 192 hours?

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anybody mentioned gfs being an outlier at 72 hours in regards to that mini low in the atlantic!!ukmo arpege and ecm separate it from the main low coming out the states where as gfs swallows it into the main low!!maybe thats what causes the gfs to be ever so slightly flatter between 144 and 192 hours?

I think thats fair comment shaky..

The direction of travel seems to be a gradual decline of the High -the hope for coldies is we see some sort of retrogression of the high in the Atlantic  , perhaps there will be some but at this juncture the best hope is a PM incursion, we just can't shake off the terrible profile to the North west.

I was hoping the MJO might be a way of breaking out of the flat pattern but i can't see anything in the 00Z products to suggest the MJO having any impact.

 

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Morning. 

An update on todays very wet and also stormy weather for southern, central and Eastern areas for late afternoon, evening and overnight. 

Arome.. 

2pm..?

224211897_UK_GUST_14(4).thumb.jpg.58b4a529af4b9eb59606ab4d032317e2.jpg

4pm..?

374586327_UK_GUST_16(4).thumb.jpg.5ded15220598de44688aeaa7142d5f91.jpg

6pm..?

1424391983_UK_GUST_18(3).thumb.jpg.6a79f92449a51a3d2058720d0568a3f0.jpg

8pm..?

1524648246_UK_GUST_20(1).thumb.jpg.d9d7f72cea2b59f6795dac3ae123691f.jpg

Very strong winds developing widely for England and Wales at first then through the latter part of this afternoon into this evening for more central southern and Eastern regions with gusts for a few hours of between 50-60mph likely in many places Inland perhaps between 60-70mph along parts of the coast, the strongest winds likely in association with another very squally cold front set to move erratically northeast during the latter part of this evening and overnight for southern and central England with a fairly narrow line of particularly heavy perhaps torrential rain developing, this very slowly moves east southeast through southeastern England overnight as a wave develops on this front with it not clearing the far east until after mid morning tomorrow. The winds will ease markedly for western and central parts of England after midnight but stay very strong for southeast England with gusts continuing around 50mph widely until dawn before easing slowly here. 

Midnight.. ?

1784189831_UK_GUST_24(2).thumb.jpg.5ecd7992a2b9bf0c521aeff54c700f78.jpg

2am..?

1841300564_UK_GUST_26(1).thumb.jpg.24cbf4ddf98c2a590f4183eeadd3996a.jpg

Rainfall forecast.. ?

10pm..

2059100168_UK_RAIN1_22(2).thumb.jpg.5474fede760c7a39e28d4917d3f7f05b.jpg

Midnight.. ?

364421075_UK_RAIN1_24(2).thumb.jpg.9e67a0576e8dd3fd7e53ec6cf0c7d047.jpg

3am..?

841129779_UK_RAIN1_27(3).thumb.jpg.72a9114956c2414df8769c4d62abecc7.jpg

5am..?

1061069796_UK_RAIN1_29(4).thumb.jpg.94d33a0dd1fb3b679a281a1044162a55.jpg

11am..?

1658196495_UK_RAIN1_35(1).thumb.jpg.fda7f89313dffb699348020fb035ff5b.jpg

As much as 15-25mm likely to accumulate quite widely altogether for England and Wales perhaps 30-40mm for some areas south of the m4. 

For the rest of the week the weather remains largely unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds on Thursday but then after this a strong area of high pressure will build close to and over the uk for the weekend bringing much more settled and drier conditions still some showers around for the north mainly with this being wintry for Scotland with overnight frost and fog patches, this seems likely to continue early-mid next week particularly for southern parts but in 8-10 days time high pressure declining southwards with a more unsettled Atlantic flow coming back in winds perhaps from a more northwesterly direction by this time. 

19th..?

865382869_EUROPE_PRMSL_114(6).thumb.jpg.6b7d6f7fc9fc65bf4415d235eba1ba80.jpg

20th..

1152221007_EUROPE_PRMSL_144(17).thumb.jpg.7162c7a511aeb20284b524c8b71f295c.jpg

22nd..?

1996761193_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(12).thumb.jpg.40972ad41c0676b7ab17049603f078e1.jpg

23rd..?

1251311617_EUROPE_PRMSL_228(8).thumb.jpg.3f83270cf0b7f8b0712e207532b6b997.jpg

24th..?

593618071_EUROPE_PRMSL_234(13).thumb.jpg.6587b81fe45336939a3f7dbbb8acb360.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Looking at the models again today, there is very little cold on offer. The high pressure is projected to meet to the south or southwest of the UK so a cloudy mild high with a gentle from from the Atlantic.

MaybMaybe a northerly toppler towards the end of January of the mjo plays ball.

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ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

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D8 - Main vortex over Siberia:

image.thumb.png.fd819e6b912d44f7026c16ec3754c20e.png

D15 - Spinning round like a big washing machine, main deep vortex spins its way back over to its usual home of NE Canada/Greenland:

image.thumb.png.97902853e662219591a8f4907c1b0867.png

 

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

 

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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters:

Strong high pressure in place at D7
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_168.

High likely to back west at D10:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_240.

Back to westerlies at D12, troughing more dominant again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_300.

D15 - Yuck:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011400_360.

Big move on the clusters this morning to back the ridge west at D10 and allow a temporary Scandi trough. Might allow a 24-48 hour window for a NW colder blast before westerlies return.

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32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The option of the high retrogressing mid term is an option but the Atlantic just isn't going to allow for it as it stands.

Going to need an epic turnaround if the high isn't going to sit back into Europe.

 

Cant say I'm surprised, 9/10 isn't that what happens?  How many times have highs over the UK moved into good positions for cold? My first thought on this UK high business was it becoming a sinker as per usual.

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4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.26ee9ea4bfed80363bff5bb054699c57.png

 ? 

 

I’d wait and see re the later progression . The GFS does get into phase 8 and some other forecasts are more bullish about phase 8.

At least we’re soon to escape the dreaded phase 4 and 5 which are terrible for cold prospects .

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28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’d wait and see re the later progression . The GFS does get into phase 8 and some other forecasts are more bullish about phase 8.

At least we’re soon to escape the dreaded phase 4 and 5 which are terrible for cold prospects .

true - today the diiff between 6h of charts is HUGE - any winterforecast was a fail - more times

Lets hope to see it in late Jan / start Febr image.thumb.png.df86b76186748ae274a1897b6032f717.png

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

D8 - Main vortex over Siberia:

image.thumb.png.fd819e6b912d44f7026c16ec3754c20e.png

D15 - Spinning round like a big washing machine, main deep vortex spins its way back over to its usual home of NE Canada/Greenland:

image.thumb.png.97902853e662219591a8f4907c1b0867.png

 

I like D15 for the Alps

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