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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Looks like UKMO extended at 168t similar to ECM chart below. Mild flow into Scotland particularly. Difference in the positioning of the high centre compared to the American models who develop a colder continental flow into Southern Britain at least. Who will be right or will they all get in wrong ?

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ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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37 minutes ago, matty40s said:

At one point on Sunday morning we were down to 3 looking at this thread things were so gloomy, 108 and rising seems to indicate pattern change is needed, not just a possible happening.

This is a stonker, just need to get some moisture in there.

 

 

What is a stonker?

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Just now, Ice Day said:

Well as positivity reigns on here tonight, here's a bit more.  The ECM Mean at 216 is showing the majority of the PV 'our side', well away from it's usual home

image.thumb.png.1940ea82305c6c49a5c08fc2bfd55306.png

The ECM was also a warm outlier for 192 onwards as well (can't post image for some reason though?)

All eye's on the Pub Run to see if it can keep the mood going!

Both gefs and eps in fi take the tpv slowly back to Canada .... it may not be all of it which means there is an opportunity for a split if the ridges get their act together as it stretches ......possible but unlikely at the moment 

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All models showing a marked pattern change within the reliable timeframe now, 128 hrs, high pressure back on the scene, and a robust looking high if the models are right. Temperatures will also revert back to something more nearer the average for January, dare I say it even a bit below.. high pressure directly overhead in January means significant surface cold, light winds and a weak sun don't have much effect.

There are differences between GFS and ECM, the former wants to bring a cold continental flow, the latter orientates the high in a position that doesn't really bring in any cold continental air, but either way conditions on the surface will likely be the same.

Longer term - conjecture really, highs up to 145mbs as forecast can linger longer than expected. All eyes on where the PV positions itself, some models want to move the core to Siberia then back towards Canada again.. to my untrained eye, I suspect the high will eventually sink, or it might just be able to advect west into mid atlantic - in both scenarios our weather could well be coming from the NW before the month is out, with arctic air spilling out into the N Atlantic, something wintry to end the month at last may be??

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No respite for coldies on the latest ec46 .... euro high persists throughout the period post week 2

Let’s hope they are as wrong as they were last year when they were promising northern blocking but that never materialised!!

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Pretty crap gfs 18z!!slightly flatter compared to 12z!dont really expect any improvements on the 00z!!probably flatter still end then end up with a high centred further south across south of england and france!! 

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Just now, shaky said:

Pretty crap gfs 18z!!slightly flatter compared to 12z!dont really expect any improvements on the 00z!!probably flatter still end then end up with a high centred further south across south of england and france!! 

I thought the high looked further west? 

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Gfs 18z looks a bit suspect in the 168-192 hrs timeframe in how it models low heights over med.. a deep low quickly filling which allows the high to pull out west. Sticking to the reliable it is pretty similar to 12z output . 

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3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

No, not normal at all. The January CET so far is 3.8C above average. The December CET was about 1c above average. The average days with snow falling for most low lying parts of the country  should be 8 days, not 0. Nothing about this winter is normal.

I'd say December was fairly normal at least, and lets leave the summation on January until it has finished, not even half way through yet. Indeed we are only just at the half way point of winter as a whole. The synoptics of past 2-3 weeks have enabled tropical maritime air to dominate, whenever it does in winter you will easily see means 2- 3 degrees above normal and most winters bring such spells in some years they are sustained much more so than others.. too many to mention since 87-88. 

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EC46 is a big bow it seems ...

I was kind of hoping we would grab lucky with some Atlantic retrogression but the Euros not really supporting the notion this evening...

Plenty of time for changes in the behaviour of the high, hoping for the best but beginning to wonder now TBH..

 

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