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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

An enjoyable GFS run for those wanting some seasonal weather, at last.

Caution required though as UKMO looks flatter..

The only saving grace is the downstream being better with a low dropping down through Scandi, if only we could get the GFS amplification and UKMO downstream...

 

Edited by Snowman.
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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think i must of dropped into the moan thread by accident..

tenor.gif

 

We’ll have to get our magic disappearing formula out and pour it onto any more posts that are just about the Winter, or is full of moaning/banter. 

Just remember guys, if your post(s) aren’t model related in any way, you’ll know what will happen ??

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7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

EC bringing a 1045mb whopping anticyclone at day 7 ...

image.thumb.png.fe5baab9267f4f7de665281f41832623.png

Not sure but its very rare to see 1045 mb over the uk.

Edited by northwestsnow
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10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

Goes against ECM as well ? 

D793E931-EEF1-466B-BEC6-493C44B02E5E.png

D75D83DA-55AA-409F-B131-25E1FF88A800.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

ECM allows this at T192 however.

image.thumb.jpg.aebb70a25086197734e433af7afe8b7f.jpg

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The 12z ECM is disappointing compared to its 0z output. The high is strong but it is positioned further south so there is a westerly flow over the UK at 168 hours. 

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I think we need to look no further than a MLB (currently in the process of getting nicely firmed up)  and take things from there. Yes it is difficult to look beyond the northern arm of the jet dominating at the moment but give it a couple of weeks or so it could relent, if so I'd say we are then in a fairly prime position for some very favourable retrogression

Nearer to present day, the trend has been our friend recently to inject a bit of mid-term seasonality in regards to the upper air temps. These from last night to today's 12z (for my balmy location)

1201-18z.thumb.jpg.5306f22f8390c93cbfe339e1b57f3413.jpg1301-12z.thumb.jpg.6c6eb61c4cc53845823a38e7a0dbc28d.jpg

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The pressure-rise has good support from the GEFS 12Z ensembles; the colder T850s & 2m temps, perhaps rather less-so:?

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Anywho, I'll leave the in-depth analysis to the Cluster Boys. (And I don't mean any Appalachian Hillbilly band that might have the same name!) Take it away, chaps!??

 

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks cold and frosty for england and wales at the very least from 72 hours till the end!!

Are you sure Shaky? Here are the 850`s for 168/192/216...

 

ECH0-168.png

ECH0-192.png

ECH0-216.png

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Ecm OK but westerlys are returning at the end of the run, and nothing in the run screams snow, whatever that looks like, hard to remember! 

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this  'notable' high pressure cell being modelled is a classic for give and take. ..it's nailed in format. ..but not in placements. ..and with gravitated as we move on. .and minimal  changes will mean massive  ramifications. ..as it eventually  makes for a transition  stage. ..and will be a highlight  to look for through  both raws  and supports heading  into the weekend! !!!

 

any surge northwards  then- we can gain @the pole. ..and swerve  eyes to the left! !!..

at least it will feel like January. ...by any possible  point making within reasonable  frames and evolution. ...as above. 

Edited by tight isobar
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