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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

EC bringing a 1045mb whopping anticyclone at day 7 ...

image.thumb.png.fe5baab9267f4f7de665281f41832623.png

Not sure but its very rare to see 1045 mb over the uk.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

Goes against ECM as well  

D793E931-EEF1-466B-BEC6-493C44B02E5E.png

D75D83DA-55AA-409F-B131-25E1FF88A800.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

NOAA charts do not allow for a GFS style anticyclone sitting on top of the UK. Too much upper mobility, however the theme is for higher pressure then currently, so not as wet, pretty dry, but with mobility.
 

 

ECM allows this at T192 however.

image.thumb.jpg.aebb70a25086197734e433af7afe8b7f.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 12z ECM is disappointing compared to its 0z output. The high is strong but it is positioned further south so there is a westerly flow over the UK at 168 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I think we need to look no further than a MLB (currently in the process of getting nicely firmed up)  and take things from there. Yes it is difficult to look beyond the northern arm of the jet dominating at the moment but give it a couple of weeks or so it could relent, if so I'd say we are then in a fairly prime position for some very favourable retrogression

Nearer to present day, the trend has been our friend recently to inject a bit of mid-term seasonality in regards to the upper air temps. These from last night to today's 12z (for my balmy location)

1201-18z.thumb.jpg.5306f22f8390c93cbfe339e1b57f3413.jpg1301-12z.thumb.jpg.6c6eb61c4cc53845823a38e7a0dbc28d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The pressure-rise has good support from the GEFS 12Z ensembles; the colder T850s & 2m temps, perhaps rather less-so:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Anywho, I'll leave the in-depth analysis to the Cluster Boys. (And I don't mean any Appalachian Hillbilly band that might have the same name!) Take it away, chaps!?

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks cold and frosty for england and wales at the very least from 72 hours till the end!!

Are you sure Shaky? Here are the 850`s for 168/192/216...

 

ECH0-168.png

ECH0-192.png

ECH0-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm OK but westerlys are returning at the end of the run, and nothing in the run screams snow, whatever that looks like, hard to remember! 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

this  'notable' high pressure cell being modelled is a classic for give and take. ..it's nailed in format. ..but not in placements. ..and with gravitated as we move on. .and minimal  changes will mean massive  ramifications. ..as it eventually  makes for a transition  stage. ..and will be a highlight  to look for through  both raws  and supports heading  into the weekend! !!!

 

any surge northwards  then- we can gain @the pole. ..and swerve  eyes to the left! !!..

at least it will feel like January. ...by any possible  point making within reasonable  frames and evolution. ...as above. 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

To do list. 

No1 get some high pressure.... Check. 

No2... Bring us some frost.... Check

No3.. Get some cold air in place and open up the potential for some snow further down the line... Still awaiting!! 

At long last we may be able to see a frozen pond or 2...and kill of some of them mosquitos.. Also some interest from the 12z ensembles.. Certainly better than the last few weeks. 

gens-1-1-192.png

gens-1-0-192.png

gens-6-1-228.png

gens-6-0-204.png

gens-7-1-336.png

gens-10-0-312.png

gens-10-1-312.png

gens-16-0-372.png

gens-19-1-192.png

yeah had a gander through  em. ..pert-10'would be a terrific  starting block! !!

 

 

@no pun-intintended . .#block

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

At one point on Sunday morning we were down to 3 looking at this thread things were so gloomy, 108 and rising seems to indicate pattern change is needed, not just a possible happening.

This is a stonker, just need to get some moisture in there.

 

 

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 192

i think most us us are expecting a cold UK High now ( which could last 7 days or so according to most models )

It doesn't look as if it can get far enough North ( yet ) for Easterlies

Maybe some cold PM shots later ( which could be potent and deliver decent snowfall to the North )

We have come quite a long way in the last 4 days of model watching. Plenty of Winter remains.  

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Looks like UKMO extended at 168t similar to ECM chart below. Mild flow into Scotland particularly. Difference in the positioning of the high centre compared to the American models who develop a colder continental flow into Southern Britain at least. Who will be right or will they all get in wrong ?

C

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

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