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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Fantastic gfs 12z if cold and frost is your thing!!slight continental feed aswell!!ukmo looks a bit meh at 144 hours expected better build of pressure into the uk!!still.cold though!

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average 

Very true, but curious if we could see trend further north and west? (I know, wishful thinking) 

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9 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average

Not really surprising is it it's been one of the mildest winters on record for europe. but if it ain't a cloudy high we should see some frost at least before it sinks back to its resting place the black sea as usual

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1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Winter about to begin GFS 12z looking cold to very cold some severe frosts on the horizon 

let’s see what ECM 12z has to offer,I think the doors have been unlocked for temperatures 

to start heading downwards.

Yes, any improvement on this GFS run would be fantastic 

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1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Winter about to begin GFS 12z looking cold to very cold some severe frosts on the horizon 

let’s see what ECM 12z has to offer,I think the doors have been unlocked for temperatures 

to start heading downwards.

Just a shame UKMO nowhere near as good at 144..

GFS  as you say looks really cold, esp at night for many.

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16 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average 

850s not very important in Jan under anticyclone.

Temps at surface very cold on GFS.12Z

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

850s not very important in Jan under anticyclone.

Temps at surface very cold on GFS.12Z

Very true the GFS 12z is actually quite cold for the south albeit non eventful.If skies cleared would expect some decent frosts which is better than what we been used to

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23 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average 

Looks cold at the surface.

192-582.GIF?13-12

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If the GFS 12Z output is regarded a good run,then winter exceptations are at all  time low. There is almost like zero oportunity for any widespread snow for the much of continent and high collapses slowly eastwards just in time to make sure the possibly snowy low pressure gets blocked by it to eventually stall and merg with another snow making low for East USA,these then stall as Euro high prevents them from diving south,eventually pattern reverts in to low pressure systen west if Ireland and our Euro high survives again

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The gfs looks good NH in the latter stages but how many times have we said that over the years?

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.6fc0f8fafc1cb948def992cf272ec13f.png

it's a lot more amplified than the 06z with a nice pincer movement from both the Atlantic and Pacific sides.

AND BANZAI!!!

gfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.35155f15050afe21f484c9bb7da0f33c.png

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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GFS is quite cold for most of the uk bar the far north of Scotland. Even an ice day in there when a small pool of -8 uppers travel through the channel.

 

 

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