Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
9 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average

Not really surprising is it it's been one of the mildest winters on record for europe. but if it ain't a cloudy high we should see some frost at least before it sinks back to its resting place the black sea as usual

Edited by igloo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Winter about to begin GFS 12z looking cold to very cold some severe frosts on the horizon 

let’s see what ECM 12z has to offer,I think the doors have been unlocked for temperatures 

to start heading downwards.

Yes, any improvement on this GFS run would be fantastic 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Winter about to begin GFS 12z looking cold to very cold some severe frosts on the horizon 

let’s see what ECM 12z has to offer,I think the doors have been unlocked for temperatures 

to start heading downwards.

Just a shame UKMO nowhere near as good at 144..

GFS  as you say looks really cold, esp at night for many.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
16 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if the center of this high pressure is getting northwards for each run we still have very high 850hpa temperatures, looks like it will be milder than average 

850s not very important in Jan under anticyclone.

Temps at surface very cold on GFS.12Z

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

850s not very important in Jan under anticyclone.

Temps at surface very cold on GFS.12Z

Very true the GFS 12z is actually quite cold for the south albeit non eventful.If skies cleared would expect some decent frosts which is better than what we been used to

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

If the GFS 12Z output is regarded a good run,then winter exceptations are at all  time low. There is almost like zero oportunity for any widespread snow for the much of continent and high collapses slowly eastwards just in time to make sure the possibly snowy low pressure gets blocked by it to eventually stall and merg with another snow making low for East USA,these then stall as Euro high prevents them from diving south,eventually pattern reverts in to low pressure systen west if Ireland and our Euro high survives again

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs looks good NH in the latter stages but how many times have we said that over the years

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.6fc0f8fafc1cb948def992cf272ec13f.png

it's a lot more amplified than the 06z with a nice pincer movement from both the Atlantic and Pacific sides.

AND BANZAI!!!

gfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.35155f15050afe21f484c9bb7da0f33c.png

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

To think we'd be getting excited, over the prospect of 4-5C maxima, in January!

Tragic isint  it

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GFS is quite cold for most of the uk bar the far north of Scotland. Even an ice day in there when a small pool of -8 uppers travel through the channel.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

From what we have had to endure...  

may the Lord make us truly thankful!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

An enjoyable GFS run for those wanting some seasonal weather, at last.

Caution required though as UKMO looks flatter..

The only saving grace is the downstream being better with a low dropping down through Scandi, if only we could get the GFS amplification and UKMO downstream...

 

Edited by Snowman.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think i must of dropped into the moan thread by accident..

tenor.gif

 

We’ll have to get our magic disappearing formula out and pour it onto any more posts that are just about the Winter, or is full of moaning/banter. 

Just remember guys, if your post(s) aren’t model related in any way, you’ll know what will happen 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...