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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Hi gang ,just a quick post from me .my thoughts today ,we have a solid high come this weekend, its where this high could finish ip which interests me  ,a nice shift north and its game on  , so we have some hope at last  ,cheers gang .

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5 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,just a quick post from me .my thoughts today ,we have a solid high come this weekend, its where this high could finish ip which interests me  ,a nice shift north and its game on  , so we have some hope at last  ,cheers gang .

Sorry to ask, but what are the outcomes of the high shifting north? Where would this be centered for the best outcomes in terms of a nice clean cold high atop the UK? As with others this morning, a break from the endless rain would be very welcome; those of us with dogs to walk are tired of sticky muddy boots and dog bellies and paws week in week out! BTW Legritter, I always enjoy your posts:)

Edited by Reefseeker

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Finally seeing some signs deep in FI of retrogression in the Atlantic...

Cold High followed by some PM shots?..

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7 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Sorry to ask, but what are the outcomes of the high shifting north? Where would this be centered for the best outcomes in terms of a nice clean cold high atop the UK? As with others this morning, a break from the endless rain would be very welcome; those of us with dogs to walk are tired of sticky muddy boots and dog bellies and paws week in week out! BTW Legritter, I always enjoy your posts:)

Further north more chance of it being/becoming a cold high as it will draw cold continental air around its bottom flank.  Also any Atlantic influence gets reduced the further shift north too, Centred northern England at least is wanted.  Most cold lovers want it to move towards and settle over Scandinavia to bring bitter cold easterlies.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

First signs of the MJO having an impact?

Excellent GFS 6Z ...

Cold high and a cold end with a potent PM attack from the north west..

Yes please.

Indeed  one of the best runs  seen in a while   of course way out in Fi   but wintry non the less  -8 uppers    not to be sneezed at. 

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All eyes on MJO ....

Might be key to where the UK high ends up...

Coldies need a bit of luck but finally some hope...

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A stonking end to the 06Z! But, as Uncle Fester never said, there'll be many a lurch before Day 0 arrives...?:cold:

image.thumb.png.8c8aac2fd77ed3e013c2b5cedb0cb002.png    h850t850eu.png

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23 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Sorry to ask, but what are the outcomes of the high shifting north? Where would this be centered for the best outcomes in terms of a nice clean cold high atop the UK? As with others this morning, a break from the endless rain would be very welcome; those of us with dogs to walk are tired of sticky muddy boots and dog bellies and paws week in week out! BTW Legritter, I always enjoy your posts:)

North of Uk in general terms would give us an easterly, n east across Scandinavia could pull in some cold air from nw Russia, nw over greenland a nice northerly. Have a read up of winter 46 /47 ,look at charts for jan 15th and watch high pressure move north till 20th ,very mild to bitter in a week ,then 7/8 weeks of snow covered boots ,enjoy .cheers .

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January 2007 was extremely mild finishing up only around 0.5*C off the all time record.  Feb 2007 did bring a short lived cold snap from the north from the 5th to 9th with snow for some on the 8th, but it was short lived and it was back to mild on the 10th.  A Scandy HP did develop during the later part of that month, but an easterly failed to materialize for the UK and we were left mild.  It would be very disappointing if we were to get a failed easterly like late Feb 2007.

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4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

January 2007 was extremely mild finishing up only around 0.5*C off the all time record.  Feb 2007 did bring a short lived cold snap from the north from the 5th to 9th with snow for some on the 8th, but it was short lived and it was back to mild on the 10th.  A Scandy HP did develop during the later part of that month, but an easterly failed to materialize for the UK and we were left mild.  It would be very disappointing if we were to get a failed easterly like late Feb 2007.

Beat me to it. I remember Feb 07 as being very mild - just checked 5.8 CET. hopefully if we get a similar evolution it will turn out better than that. 

Btw @Glacier Point where can I read your blog? 

Thanks,

NS

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3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:
CENTAUREAWEATHER.COM

If you have any questions on this, probably best take them to winter discussion thread to avoid going off topic. Thanks

@Glacier Point,many thanks to your response to my question. It looks like a heart attack pattern for me in central EU. I remember a huge dumping of snow in February that winter 2006/07 and with the really cold air staying just east of central Europe, it could have been a great month. There had remained a legacy high pressure and mild weather in Europe from record breaking mild pattern,almost carbon copy of this winter thus far. Cooling western EuroAsia is a good step forward to maybe a slightly potentially more favorable pattern in February.  

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latest MJO - come on 🙂 we need that blocking

image.thumb.png.3995854da0c6e3c31cc583982f070110.png

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Confirmation of a cool down to come according to ECM ensembles, temperatures not getting above 5C in London for several days next week on this. 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

(should be showing 13/1 00z run) 

Edited by Man With Beard

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Confirmation of a cool down to come according to ECM ensembles, temperatures not getting above 5C in London for several days next week on this. 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

(should be showing 13/1 00z run) 

London usually a degree or two warmer than rural areas so i wouldn't be suprised to see max and mins a degree or two lower come the weekend and beyond.

Little strength in the sun until midFeb.

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Bank the 06z from GFS with a cold high for several days. We look like getting lucky with some cold upper air from the W/NW giving us a nice cold flow/pool as we sit at the centre of the high:

anim_rch8.gif

The uppers are not essential but shouldn't complain! The mean supports a cold flow as seen at T84+, with the op and control the most potent, though at this range I would have more faith in those, so that remains likely.

Post the UK high the GEFS are rather ordinary though subject to change at short notice but with the clear sign of a colder mid-lat upper-airflow as we end the month:

gensnh-21-1-360.thumb.png.9047c5a4ca8292ef6fbd3140f0d17667.pnggens-21-0-348.thumb.png.39a2ca83cb2aaf4b0541d8cf798c604e.png

...with Pacific forcing looking a possibility even at this range.

I thought February would be the start of winter but getting a prelude mid-January is a bonus for those that like a colder setup.

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yes much colder runs than early this morning from the gefs and gfs.

but looks far to complicated to be right so far out.

but even some very cold northwesterlies earlier in the runs.

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17 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes Nick,a lot more so than prev runs when they were a flat west to southwesterly but we shouldn't discount the NWly's😁.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.724ce671873daa1f6be2a167be393690.png

for anyone new on here that doesn't know how to read this graph:-

the numbers on the left represent the degrees,think of a pie chart

90 is easterly

180 is southerly

270 is westerly

360 is northerly.

 

 

17 hours ago, Snowfish2 said:

So an easterly then showing yes? 

Sorry for the late reply Snowfish2

it's a possibility but we need more members going for it,this mornings de-built ens has more members so we are heading in the right direction

yesterdays^

this mornings.

2147371207_eps_pluim_dd_06260(1).thumb.png.89b29d1b568359072d9cb976beed008d.png

but i think these are represented from a UK high pulling in the continental air into Holland just across the pond.

 here is  the stamps at 168(20th)

gens_panel_ktp4.thumb.png.4f02169cc8bbb35689633df69da3a75b.pnggens_panel_ukf7.thumb.png.9cbb77134fa2adf2a473985e199826c9.png

i hope that helps.

P.S,nice post Ed BTW😃

Edited by Allseasons-si

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