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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM showing no retrograding high today, instead keeping it in place over the UK propped up by an Iberian low. Looks like a cold high too, something we've not had all winter at least...

I'm not expecting any retyogression until month end when the MJO phase 7 should start to impact.

That's based on the MJO getting into phase 7 at a decent amplitude.

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ECM ensembles this morning - no cold outcomes favoured out to day 10, with pressure starting to decline from day 7 onwards:


image.thumb.png.ce4767cc372dc504faa8426b708246eb.pngimage.thumb.png.8d8c56ee3ad885e766e2442495125ef3.png
 

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GFS ensembles actually looking chilly for a period from 17th.
 

All down to the position/orientation of the high, Op going on the mild side 850s wise. If we can draw in a cooler airmass like ECM the it could begin to feel like winter with plenty of frost and fog about.


BC8A0619-0BAC-4F74-B2D0-AA7EEA170903.thumb.png.113ef7003849e1b0d1b44d9bfc50aed0.png

 

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55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM ensembles this morning - no cold outcomes favoured out to day 10, with pressure starting to decline from day 7 onwards:


image.thumb.png.ce4767cc372dc504faa8426b708246eb.pngimage.thumb.png.8d8c56ee3ad885e766e2442495125ef3.png
 

DET looks very cold late in the week right through the weekend and onto next week.

Plenty of cold frosty weather on offer 🙂

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A little focus of the operational models around 144 hours:
 

00Z GFS

B6349043-7168-4351-BBC5-2CBFF6EEC235.thumb.png.856d25513c77f7962eea3f020ef4c155.png

00Z ECMWF

80B63198-BDAE-4ACB-ADDF-DF72E69830C8.thumb.png.1f1958beafee766a2d8f97daa1f8c0ed.png

00Z UKMO

E8DE7622-95A0-4394-9B69-14FA37DA3302.thumb.png.ff423da6ba915a17852d57409718c1b9.png

00Z GEM

7B856F22-3CC9-4C55-910E-6BACF10A97F2.thumb.png.2f39e65afd49aeedaa5c4ec325095470.png

00Z ICON

0AA8D588-E05E-4530-BB96-427C4ED8F39B.thumb.png.c4fbac244130b10821f69f477e31e288.png

All mostly going for High Pressure rocking about over and/or close to the UK area. So chance for the weather to settle down. Placement of the High Pressure isn’t fully certain around that time range. The ICON, for example, has it more towards the South of the UK while the GEM has the centre of the High just to the South-West of Wales. I think having High Pressure pay the UK a visit appears to be quite a likely scenario at all. Could certainly be chilly with some frost and fog at night (assuming High Pressure sets up favourably for that, which seems possible).

Nothing particularly snowy for now really, but hopefully some white stuff will turn up at some point during the next few weeks or so.
 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with  hopefully  some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer 👍

ECM 168 13th jan 00z.png

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1 minute ago, coldwinter said:

A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with  hopefully  some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer 👍

ECM 168 13th jan 00z.png

I do not think that a northerly outbreak was ever shown by any model in the period January 20th to 22nd, except for one isolated ECM op run at day ten.  The most commonly shown scenario for that timeframe was HP close by to the UK, which at a week or just over out is difficult in winter to predict what temperatures will be seen at ground level.

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As already stated ECM high pressure the key to all doors regarding cold frosty weather,starting at 120 hrs will it

find its way north and bring some cold north to northeasterly winds.A good chance I feel this time,we shall see

fingers crossed.

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Not the most encouraging of GFS 00Zs this morning: I wonder if the models overreacted to signals for the tPV shifting into Siberia, the super-cold Screurocharts of a few days' back having done a David Cameron:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

On to the 06z!

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It may have gone un-noticed but GEFS have flipped to a colder outlook this morning..

image.thumb.png.c947f4d3666d17d25ca3a8b9dab60473.png

And the 850s do not tell the whole tale in this set up..

edit EC mean has HP in control and ends with HP in control

image.thumb.png.df4b7f10b4a222b2e96afc94fd388f9b.png

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It may have gone un-noticed but GEFS have flipped to a colder outlook this morning..

image.thumb.png.c947f4d3666d17d25ca3a8b9dab60473.png

And the 850s do not tell the whole tale in this set up..

Im surprised by the comments on here aswell by the way!looking like a very cold and frosty outlook to me!!better than mild and wet all day!!although i must say we getting to that stage where even a frost wont cut it lol!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im surprised by the comments on here aswell by the way!looking like a very cold and frosty outlook to me!!better than mild and wet all day!!although i must say we getting to that stage where even a frost wont cut it lol!!

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers 😄

 

 

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers 😄

 

 

Good running weather aswell!!nothing like a run on a cold crisp morning!!😍

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Being the geek i am im hoping we do see a cold frosty high - last third of Jan is a good time of year to test how low temps can go..

The key here is the troughing to our South 

image.thumb.png.7bf813075f93a169311027c6ded899d9.png

Temps would be sub zero by night and struggling by day 🙂

As a coldie i don't see any crushing blows - HP in charge and hopefully a bit of help from the MJO down the line.

All good from where i'm sat ..

Yes NWS

Hopefully the HP sets up in the correct position where we can see sparkling sunshine by day and some harsh frosty nights.If snow is not on the agenda yet then this is by far second best.

C.S

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image.thumb.png.af8d214bdcf14dafc4ad48002afed345.png500Hpa temps maybe for some snow signs....

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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zero chance of any snowfall anytime soon m8...

As coldies the hope is HP will manage to retrogress longer term - 

This is where the MJO might come in handy-

In the meantime excellent walking weather for people like myself as we head through next weekend, hopefully temps will plummet under clear skies and we can get some decent sub zero mins- still would have enjoyed this set up around christmas but beggars cant be choosers 😄

 

 

By the way backtrack complete from the gfs at 96 hours on the 06z!!gone fully towards ukmo!!ecm has aswell!!gota say ukmo has impressed me this winter!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

By the way backtrack complete from the gfs at 96 hours on the 06z!!gone fully towards ukmo!!ecm has aswell!!gota say ukmo has impressed me this winter!!

Ye  in my opinion  its been very consistent  this winter   6z  brings  heavy snowfall for the scottish ski resorts  

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Excellent 6z with high pressure firmly in charge! Builds in from the 18th and should last a week 👍

gsf 6z day 8 13th jan.png

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Colder run  compared  to the 0z   fine and frosty  looks like being the favourite as we enter the weekend and beyond     Nothing dramatic  but at least it will feel like winter 

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As long as its a cold high then i think most will be happy/happier. We haven't had one this winter, and it'd be a welcome break from the incessant wind and rain of the last 2-3 months, and a good chance to dry out.

As for the GFS, it's been garbage all winter. Even the GEM has verified better at times.

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GFS is a HP fest ....

For the colder uppers we need a break from the flat jet and systems exiting the ESB.

No sign of that happening at the moment.

Still, should be more seasonal for the timebeing , after thurs..

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spacer.pngGFS 0z @144

 

spacer.pngUKMO 0z @144

 

spacer.pngECM 0z @144

 

spacer.pngGEM 0z @144

So a cold UK High looks the most likely outcome around 19th Jan according to most of the 0z runs.

Can the High then orientate into a more favourable position for longer term cold after that ?

The GEM tries to build a ridge NE at 168 but then flattens. ( below )

spacer.pngGEM 0z @168

The GFS 6z ( just out ) looks to do something similar @ 168 ( below )

spacer.pngGFS 6z @168

Overall Summary , Cold , Dry , Frosty with further chances down the line towards the end of the month. 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Being the geek i am im hoping we do see a cold frosty high - last third of Jan is a good time of year to test how low temps can go..

The key here is the troughing to our South 

image.thumb.png.7bf813075f93a169311027c6ded899d9.png

Temps would be sub zero by night and struggling by day 🙂

As a coldie i don't see any crushing blows - HP in charge and hopefully a bit of help from the MJO down the line.

All good from where i'm sat ..

GFS 06z in tandem with ECM. Mild(ish) by day and cold nights and mornings seems a good bet.  That’ll do for now.  I don’t think that will get better but slight tweaks could bring more, but also less.  A few -6c nights with heavy frosts will satisfy me after this first half of winter 

 

BFTP

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