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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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If only it were July... 

image.thumb.png.ca9ed14d749e387a11ee19800695ce7e.png

😴 Blimey, what a so-called 'winter' this is. I took the dog out for a walk this morning and it genuinely felt like late March

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10 minutes ago, LRD said:

If only it were July... 

image.thumb.png.ca9ed14d749e387a11ee19800695ce7e.png

😴 Blimey, what a so-called 'winter' this is. I took the dog out for a walk this morning and it genuinely felt like late March

The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

They have been. Typical that they would be right when they're predicting mild in winter. They were predicting cold last year and were wrong ☹️

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

They have Crewe altho it's a sore point when you mention it🤔hopefully Feb will bring a cold spell or record warmth.im easy now heading towards months end

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6 minutes ago, LRD said:

They have been. Typical that they would be right when they're predicting mild in winter. They were predicting cold last year and were wrong ☹️

Both were probabilistic forecasts, this year the most likely outcome seems to have transpired, last year it didn't.  Doesn't mean either of them was right or wrong, all possibilities wrt cold or mild were in the mix both years to some extent, in a sense a probabilistic forecast can't be wrong in a single year because all bases will be covered by some probability at least.  Over the years statistics will tell whether they are any good or not...

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

So … do we have much faith in model output after T+144? Is it worth getting all down in the dumps over another poor GFS run? Maybe not for now.

GEM backtracked towards the GFS at T144:

gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.b06ed5369d98a9036f89282ab869a2cf.pnggemeu-0-144.thumb.png.ba60de295b1afec59a274a5d41e5156a.png

The UKMO looks odd with that low where it is, more indicative of algorithms going awry than a likely feature? 

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GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

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3 minutes ago, topo said:

GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

It does look like it:

A514176D-5B2B-4C17-84E6-AE71D94F3DB1.thumb.png.5bc5babfa4c0a5bce306fdb2bcb57d37.png
 

An example at 216 hours where the 12Z GEM goes for the Northerly (looks like it would topple, possibly with some cut-off heights left over Greenland). 

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5 minutes ago, topo said:

GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

looks nothing like the ECM both GEM and GFS are near identical to each other is this another let down?

 

gem-0-144.png

gfs-0-144.png

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I guess one could say that any attempt at weather-forecasting is inherently probabilistic?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Nobody knows where things are headed...

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There has been absolutely no decent support for the northern arm to relent enough to allow anything other than a toppled ....... sorry coldies .....mind you, a decent topper would be something this winter! 

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spacer.pngUKMO 12z @144

At least we are now actually discussing 144 charts ( as opposed to just 384 charts ) !

The UKMO 12z @144 is significant (IMO ) because it is the first time we have seen any amplification at all at this range recently.

In addition the UKMO 12z @144 is not that dissimilar to the ECM 12Z @ 216 that we saw on Thur evening 3 days ago ).

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There has been absolutely no decent support for the northern arm to relent enough to allow anything other than a toppled ....... sorry coldies .....mind you, a decent topper would be something this winter! 

True BA it's becoming NNW wind would suffice a decent winter outbreak!!!,,😔

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

True BA it's becoming NNW wind would suffice a decent winter outbreak!!!,,😔

The gem solution is one which the eps control has sniffed last few days with the next system sliding se against the remnants of the ridge .....

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So, basically, no agreement this evening.

UKMO/GFS are so different at 144 its laughable.

 

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57 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM backtracked towards the GFS at T144:

gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.b06ed5369d98a9036f89282ab869a2cf.pnggemeu-0-144.thumb.png.ba60de295b1afec59a274a5d41e5156a.png

The UKMO looks odd with that low where it is, more indicative of algorithms going awry than a likely feature? 

GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

Clear as mud this evening.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

Clear as mud this evening.

Yes, agreed, and that is what we should be watching as the ECM rolls.

First, does the ECM show the low SW of the UK at T144 with amplification upstream, UKMO T144:

image.thumb.jpg.284973b41d3ad20dd060cab7e3edb5a3.jpg

If it does not, does it show retrogression of the high as per GEM at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.f6f7a3308514955ede2a5fe028551737.jpg

Popcorn, anyone?

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

Clear as mud this evening.

Yes, weird, the GEM moved towards the GFS then still managed to find a route to that ridge and trough. Usually when that happens I think that background signals are in play? Time will tell if that is the case or simply the models are spitting out representations of the clusters per run, to hedge their bets!

Anyway the GEFS suite is unashamedly awful right out to D16 offering little cheer or hope, so hopefully that is not where we will land. Even the cluster that are close to the ECM take, few and far between, end up not worth the computing time.

ECM 12z op needs to defy its mean and show some consistency within the reliable...

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Some interesting outputs for over a week away have been appearing but the chance of a long lasting cold spell in the next 8-14 days from now is looking unlikely so while the output from various models have shown higher pressure to the west with a northerly that scenario is currently looking unlikely but Woudn't rule it out obviously atm. 🙂

Anyway back to the short term, a very deep area of low pressure set to move to the west of Scotland during tomorrow ofcourse and some heavy snow for higher parts of Scotland especially the mountains from the weather front associated with the storm which will be very active with a squall line developing within the back edge of the rain, wind gusts widely for England of 45-50mph later in the afternoon but perhaps 55mph in places on the back edge. Gusts over 60mph for the far West of Wales and southwest England possible. 

gusts of 70-80mph likely for the Irish sea. 

60+mph for many parts of northern Ireland and Ireland, 80-90mph is possible for the western isles of Scotland later tomorrow depending on the exact proximity the area of strongest winds are around the low centre. 

239678864_06_33_ukpreciptype(4).thumb.png.64f43916c0af603f3354b23b25326e61.png

06_38_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.0b71c470535af94ddfef217c7f9be3db.png

Anyway that all moves through tomorrow night with heavy wintry showers for parts of western Scotland this may fall as snow to some lower levels too. 

Then for tuesday we have this vigorous system here..

IMG_20200112_165703.thumb.jpg.923728052299c13749fd29e24936b147.jpg

1772141378_EUROPE_PRMSL_54(7).thumb.jpg.4dcc91087b9a2eba3f591e813cc1b6f7.jpg

Wind gusts.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_48.thumb.jpg.115d48b95ed870a3cc0f67e0f65e6836.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_54.thumb.jpg.fa9726cb3a76165bfa51275e796a6dda.jpg

1202245758_EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_60(1).thumb.jpg.0e97c38cedff8e054fbc5715d8a38390.jpg

This system bringing a stormy afternoon and evening on Tuesday for many parts of England and Wales with gusts of 50-60mph inland this accompanied by rain that will be heavy and persistent in places that pushes into England, Wales, Ireland and fringing into northern Ireland, southern and possibly central Scotland with snow on higher ground here on the northern side, then we have the cold front that is set to try and move to the east during Tuesday night but ripples moving along this keep the rain continuing for England with some very heavy rain in association with another squall line possible this perhaps taking until after dawn on Wednesday to clear the far southeast along with the very strong winds. Tuesday is looking much quieter with lighter winds for Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

Edited by jordan smith

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

Yes, weird, the GEM moved towards the GFS then still managed to find a route to that ridge and trough. Usually when that happens I think that background signals are in play? Time will tell if that is the case or simply the models are spitting out representations of the clusters per run, to hedge their bets!

Anyway the GEFS suite is unashamedly awful right out to D16 offering little cheer or hope, so hopefully that is not where we will land. Even the cluster that are close to the ECM take, few and far between, end up not worth the computing time.

ECM 12z op needs to defy its mean and show some consistency within the reliable...

I'm not sure about the background signals, there looks to be agreement now on MJO  phase 7 albeit briefly..

GEFS not great-

I suspect EC might show a toppler day 9 this evening...

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Well already I think the UKMO option is off the table on the ECM, T96, ECM first:

image.thumb.jpg.3cecbf1f9136d681a0f7b9fe516034fe.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.97627ccda01c1f0905e0ec8f86b7333b.jpg

That low at the extreme SW of the jet it is just a kink in an isobar on ECM, so it will hardly become the key low at T144.

 

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