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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, LRD said:

    They have been. Typical that they would be right when they're predicting mild in winter. They were predicting cold last year and were wrong ☹️

    Both were probabilistic forecasts, this year the most likely outcome seems to have transpired, last year it didn't.  Doesn't mean either of them was right or wrong, all possibilities wrt cold or mild were in the mix both years to some extent, in a sense a probabilistic forecast can't be wrong in a single year because all bases will be covered by some probability at least.  Over the years statistics will tell whether they are any good or not...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

     

    So … do we have much faith in model output after T+144? Is it worth getting all down in the dumps over another poor GFS run? Maybe not for now.

    GEM backtracked towards the GFS at T144:

    gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.b06ed5369d98a9036f89282ab869a2cf.pnggemeu-0-144.thumb.png.ba60de295b1afec59a274a5d41e5156a.png

    The UKMO looks odd with that low where it is, more indicative of algorithms going awry than a likely feature? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    3 minutes ago, topo said:

    GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

    It does look like it:

    A514176D-5B2B-4C17-84E6-AE71D94F3DB1.thumb.png.5bc5babfa4c0a5bce306fdb2bcb57d37.png
     

    An example at 216 hours where the 12Z GEM goes for the Northerly (looks like it would topple, possibly with some cut-off heights left over Greenland). 

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    5 minutes ago, topo said:

    GEM is close to ECMWF 0z

    looks nothing like the ECM both GEM and GFS are near identical to each other is this another let down?

     

    gem-0-144.png

    gfs-0-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I guess one could say that any attempt at weather-forecasting is inherently probabilistic??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Nobody knows where things are headed...

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    There has been absolutely no decent support for the northern arm to relent enough to allow anything other than a toppled ....... sorry coldies .....mind you, a decent topper would be something this winter! 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngUKMO 12z @144

    At least we are now actually discussing 144 charts ( as opposed to just 384 charts ) !

    The UKMO 12z @144 is significant (IMO ) because it is the first time we have seen any amplification at all at this range recently.

    In addition the UKMO 12z @144 is not that dissimilar to the ECM 12Z @ 216 that we saw on Thur evening 3 days ago ).

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GEM gets there in the end. Don’t forget it’s outperforming the GFS still. Hopefully the ECM will follow suit ...

    3BD40A0B-03D5-4240-A7D5-3BA97EDDC0D3.png

    E638C186-A564-457D-B8B5-98441A93A576.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    There has been absolutely no decent support for the northern arm to relent enough to allow anything other than a toppled ....... sorry coldies .....mind you, a decent topper would be something this winter! 

    True BA it's becoming NNW wind would suffice a decent winter outbreak!!!,,?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    True BA it's becoming NNW wind would suffice a decent winter outbreak!!!,,?

    The gem solution is one which the eps control has sniffed last few days with the next system sliding se against the remnants of the ridge .....

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    So, basically, no agreement this evening.

    UKMO/GFS are so different at 144 its laughable.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    57 minutes ago, IDO said:

    GEM backtracked towards the GFS at T144:

    gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.b06ed5369d98a9036f89282ab869a2cf.pnggemeu-0-144.thumb.png.ba60de295b1afec59a274a5d41e5156a.png

    The UKMO looks odd with that low where it is, more indicative of algorithms going awry than a likely feature? 

    GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

    And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

    Clear as mud this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

    And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

    Clear as mud this evening.

    Yes, agreed, and that is what we should be watching as the ECM rolls.

    First, does the ECM show the low SW of the UK at T144 with amplification upstream, UKMO T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.284973b41d3ad20dd060cab7e3edb5a3.jpg

    If it does not, does it show retrogression of the high as per GEM at T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.f6f7a3308514955ede2a5fe028551737.jpg

    Popcorn, anyone?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GEM/GFS a world apart at 168....

    And they are both totally different to UKMO at 144..

    Clear as mud this evening.

    Yes, weird, the GEM moved towards the GFS then still managed to find a route to that ridge and trough. Usually when that happens I think that background signals are in play? Time will tell if that is the case or simply the models are spitting out representations of the clusters per run, to hedge their bets!

    Anyway the GEFS suite is unashamedly awful right out to D16 offering little cheer or hope, so hopefully that is not where we will land. Even the cluster that are close to the ECM take, few and far between, end up not worth the computing time.

    ECM 12z op needs to defy its mean and show some consistency within the reliable...

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Some interesting outputs for over a week away have been appearing but the chance of a long lasting cold spell in the next 8-14 days from now is looking unlikely so while the output from various models have shown higher pressure to the west with a northerly that scenario is currently looking unlikely but Woudn't rule it out obviously atm. ?

    Anyway back to the short term, a very deep area of low pressure set to move to the west of Scotland during tomorrow ofcourse and some heavy snow for higher parts of Scotland especially the mountains from the weather front associated with the storm which will be very active with a squall line developing within the back edge of the rain, wind gusts widely for England of 45-50mph later in the afternoon but perhaps 55mph in places on the back edge. Gusts over 60mph for the far West of Wales and southwest England possible. 

    gusts of 70-80mph likely for the Irish sea. 

    60+mph for many parts of northern Ireland and Ireland, 80-90mph is possible for the western isles of Scotland later tomorrow depending on the exact proximity the area of strongest winds are around the low centre. 

    239678864_06_33_ukpreciptype(4).thumb.png.64f43916c0af603f3354b23b25326e61.png

    06_38_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.0b71c470535af94ddfef217c7f9be3db.png

    Anyway that all moves through tomorrow night with heavy wintry showers for parts of western Scotland this may fall as snow to some lower levels too. 

    Then for tuesday we have this vigorous system here..

    IMG_20200112_165703.thumb.jpg.923728052299c13749fd29e24936b147.jpg

    1772141378_EUROPE_PRMSL_54(7).thumb.jpg.4dcc91087b9a2eba3f591e813cc1b6f7.jpg

    Wind gusts.. ?

    EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_48.thumb.jpg.115d48b95ed870a3cc0f67e0f65e6836.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_54.thumb.jpg.fa9726cb3a76165bfa51275e796a6dda.jpg

    1202245758_EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_60(1).thumb.jpg.0e97c38cedff8e054fbc5715d8a38390.jpg

    This system bringing a stormy afternoon and evening on Tuesday for many parts of England and Wales with gusts of 50-60mph inland this accompanied by rain that will be heavy and persistent in places that pushes into England, Wales, Ireland and fringing into northern Ireland, southern and possibly central Scotland with snow on higher ground here on the northern side, then we have the cold front that is set to try and move to the east during Tuesday night but ripples moving along this keep the rain continuing for England with some very heavy rain in association with another squall line possible this perhaps taking until after dawn on Wednesday to clear the far southeast along with the very strong winds. Tuesday is looking much quieter with lighter winds for Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, IDO said:

    Yes, weird, the GEM moved towards the GFS then still managed to find a route to that ridge and trough. Usually when that happens I think that background signals are in play? Time will tell if that is the case or simply the models are spitting out representations of the clusters per run, to hedge their bets!

    Anyway the GEFS suite is unashamedly awful right out to D16 offering little cheer or hope, so hopefully that is not where we will land. Even the cluster that are close to the ECM take, few and far between, end up not worth the computing time.

    ECM 12z op needs to defy its mean and show some consistency within the reliable...

    I'm not sure about the background signals, there looks to be agreement now on MJO  phase 7 albeit briefly..

    GEFS not great-

    I suspect EC might show a toppler day 9 this evening...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well already I think the UKMO option is off the table on the ECM, T96, ECM first:

    image.thumb.jpg.3cecbf1f9136d681a0f7b9fe516034fe.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.97627ccda01c1f0905e0ec8f86b7333b.jpg

    That low at the extreme SW of the jet it is just a kink in an isobar on ECM, so it will hardly become the key low at T144.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    T144, well now that ECM is not following UKMO, what about GEM, here's both ECM first:

    image.thumb.jpg.d18a21d9817432762534fe0bb2df6d3b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.00452aaace3a11a16a586c6cc4a4facf.jpg

    ECM much more amplified upstream, put the red eyes in and it is a Terminator skull!, so while I'm not sure it will follow the GEM it could certainly produce an interesting evolution from here, let's see.

    Edit: hint at retrogression T192, not as clean as GEM, too much vortex left in the way, ECM first 

    image.thumb.jpg.f2e215192e1b65b97dc50e067fdcd9d6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d5f2d4fb163a9f3254b0642eacd27276.jpg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    12z even more amplified interested where this is headed along same lines of 00z? That lobe of vortex is annoying though hard to see something sustained atm but possibly turning much colder from north.

     
    205026B8-445D-4892-A5D1-5891CDA0F3A2.thumb.png.6030b3a8b3c2ff0c66efd9dd3b7a44ad.png>18C0C2B1-DDF6-406C-AD64-DEB5A2485A56.thumb.png.c616020c0f007766222dc01b009eb762.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

    ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic 

    ecm day 9 12th jan 2020.png

    aye back to square one again could well be back to another Bartlett again what a change from 12h ago disapointing

     

    ECH1-216.gif

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