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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    I actually think this is more likely the outcome than the ECM day 10 but I hope I'm wrong. A watered down PM Northwesterly is far more likely- great for the mountains and hills out North and West Crap for everywhere else

    20200112_113211.jpg

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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
    41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

    extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

     

    Maybe the best we can hope for in the medium term is a UK high or a ridge that develops just to the NW.

    I think a lot depends on whether the PV does indeed move towards Siberia ( or whether it comes back to Canada with a vengeance after just a short leave of absence )  

    I remain in hope of a pattern change ( starting around 20th ) especially with encouraging signs regarding the MJO phases for cold.

    Excitement for coldies will only really start if we see some progression of todays ECM 0z 216 chart to the 144 timeframe  ( and then some crucial backing from the UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    For all the talk of GFS 'jumping ship' the 6z looks cold into FI with frosts a plenty and snow opportunities ..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    I actually think this is more likely the outcome than the ECM day 10 but I hope I'm wrong. A watered down PM Northwesterly is far more likely- great for the mountains and hills out North and West Crap for everywhere else

    20200112_113211.jpg

    Probability states it will get watered down in the nearer timescale (if we get anything close to that synpotic as 9/10 days is a long time away) and going by recent northerly shots and there haven't been many in the last few months a passing glimpse with any decent cold going to our east as of your post suggests.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    For all the talk of GFS 'jumping ship' the 6z looks cold into FI with frosts a plenty and snow opportunities ..

     

    Pretty much average for my locale:

    graphe6_1000_307_152___.thumb.png.67f502c164a5e23a9338c09a57d96062.png

    I think in the next 16-days two ensemble members gets a 2m-temp below 0c. The op uppers in line with the climate norm. 

    Maybe further north, as you would expect; colder with snow and frost? Not here ATM, though if HP to dominate we may lose the cloud at times for colder nights, but lately the highs have been cloudy so milder evenings hence the extraordinary CET anomaly.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Pretty much average for my locale:

    graphe6_1000_307_152___.thumb.png.67f502c164a5e23a9338c09a57d96062.png

    I think in the next 16-days two ensemble members gets a 2m-temp below 0c. The op uppers in line with the climate norm. 

    Maybe further north, as you would expect; colder with snow and frost? Not here ATM, though if HP to dominate we may lose the cloud at times for colder nights, but lately the highs have been cloudy so milder evenings hence the extraordinary CET anomaly.

    Yes it looks colder the further north one heads into FI-

    I don't think for one minute we are heading for a sustained freeze and high lat blocking but there looks to be more scope for something more seasonal from where i am sitting.

    Certainly a different perspective north to south though with little prospect of snow across the South in general.

    6Z kind of ties in with recent Exeter updates with mention of hill snow in the north perhaps down to low levels at times.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.png

    UKMO 0z @t144 shows the beginnings of PV separation perhaps. ( and certainly a migration of the main lobe towards Siberia )

    One to watch as we head to the 12z s later on i suspect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    6z ensembles don’t really support any cold at the moment...mean sticking at 0 until the end of run. Let’s hope it’s one of those that develops as we get closer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    ECM positive at day 9 but progresses a common garden toppler on day 10

    ECM1-240.GIF?12-12

    Be interesting to see to what extent we can get to something colder and more sustainable over a period of a few days rather than just 24 hours and a good frost. 

     

    Trend is much better though than a few days a go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    On 04/01/2020 at 15:26, SqueakheartLW said:

    Well I just say bin this winter and roll on 2020/2021. At least it should be the one just after solar minimum with EQBO as well. So far Gavs winter forecast isn't going very well.

    Gav went for a slightly colder than average December - Actually ended up around 1C above average

    Gav said January would probably be mildest month of the winter but around average - So far not looking good

    Gav said February would be coldest month - We shall see

    In order to get to his prediction of a slightly colder than average winter overall we are going to need some brutal cold in February or it will end a long way out

    Improving trends compared to a week ago but I would say that the 06z run is a step back and inching towards a less cold outcome than the 00z.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

    GEFS not relenting. This is a pattern changer, for good or bad ( let’s face it, it’s unlikely to be worse!)

    D14DD0A9-BF74-4FA6-9705-AAEB975D8F47.thumb.gif.2ec355426c8fa33271b90f22fe8e23b0.gif

    Greenland ridge very plausible, possibly even very likely. Interesting last third firming up...

    Fascinating, lots of talk yesterday of it falling short. Interesting times. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Another thing about the 12Z UKMO is that it looks almost identical to the 00Z ECMWF at 120 hours. Especially with those tightly coiled up Lows in the mid and Western Atlantic:

    12Z UKMO 
    0C4C1653-DC80-4732-BCF5-54C0BDBFEF70.thumb.png.3fdf21023b9ebfe52a1ae058e12800de.png
     

    00Z ECMWF

    22E0B22B-6C6C-48A0-8365-A555DA060A53.thumb.png.9117ccd2b8ead73e171cdc60e27e1eb7.png
    The Low is a little deeper to the North of the UK on the ECMWF and the 500mb heights towards the Western Greenland area are a bit lower too. Otherwise rather similar. Is possible since they’re similar, and the fact that the UKMO is more amplified than its earlier run (as covered by Mike above), it may eventually lead to a Northerly setup like the 00Z ECMWF. Hard to be sure since seeing UKMO charts past the 144/168 hours mark is not possible. Interesting nonetheless anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    This may change later in the run, but for comparison with the earlier runs that don't go out very far, GFS is less amplified and at the 'UK high' end of that envelope of op run possibilities that I mentioned earlier, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.00ab004b7bcaf3950d1d476f72b376c5.jpg

    Interesting where the cold air is, and even more interesting that it looks like a moose with a big head over Siberia:

    image.thumb.jpg.539699e1470b3f101a92c1385302521f.jpg

    GFS T204.  Theres something to tap into from the Arctic if we get a break!  If...

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This may change later in the run, but for comparison with the earlier runs that don't go out very far, GFS is less amplified and at the 'UK high' end of that envelope of op run possibilities that I mentioned earlier, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.00ab004b7bcaf3950d1d476f72b376c5.jpg

    You're probably right but I just had an optimistic feeling it might go on to show a bit of an Easterly for part of the country as the heights around Italy lower in fi but we will see

    gfs-0-216.png

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GFS has no interest whatsoever with the ECM-trough dropping and transient Greenland ridge:

    gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.1bfd64c3311759bd7f9b74b230c23359.pngECE1-216.thumb.gif.46200d8630df92fd604e7be282051bc3.gif

    So GFS wanting dry average temps for 4-6 days. The 06z suggests no real interest in FI so we will see if the 12z changes anything?

    Over to ECM. As for a D6 UKMO chart, my thoughts on them mean that another 24h is needed before it can be taken seriously especially as it looks quite odd!

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    If only it were July... 

    image.thumb.png.ca9ed14d749e387a11ee19800695ce7e.png

    ? Blimey, what a so-called 'winter' this is. I took the dog out for a walk this morning and it genuinely felt like late March

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    10 minutes ago, LRD said:

    If only it were July... 

    image.thumb.png.ca9ed14d749e387a11ee19800695ce7e.png

    ? Blimey, what a so-called 'winter' this is. I took the dog out for a walk this morning and it genuinely felt like late March

    The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

    They have been. Typical that they would be right when they're predicting mild in winter. They were predicting cold last year and were wrong ☹️

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The seasonal models have been spot on this year.

    They have Crewe altho it's a sore point when you mention it?hopefully Feb will bring a cold spell or record warmth.im easy now heading towards months end

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