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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Finally updated. Although the ECM 0z op run looks an Outlier at the end let's hope its leading the way

graphe0_00_0_0_-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif.png

Edited by Kentspur
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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical. 

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

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3 minutes ago, Retron said:

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine.

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...

 

Many thanks for that. 

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We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

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25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Edited by Nick F
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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9. 

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spacer.pngECM 0z @t240 yesterday

spacer.pngECM 0z @216 today

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

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15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trough digging down across NE/E Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

 

Difficult to analyse that chart but the GEFS mean at D10 followed by the ECM mean...

gens-21-6-240.thumb.png.dc876d033113b73e878edebeed5d6cc1.pngEDM100-240.thumb.gif.577a69e3fea8bba8434331e52bf99125.gif

...do not really back up the ECM op at D10...

ECM100-240.thumb.gif.9ca2f75f0d1c486a264e546789a444c9.gif

...with respect to upper air depth of cold. It would appear the ECM op is at the extreme end of cold possibilities. Few of us are arguing that as the mini-ridge topples, colder air will filter south close to the UK, but fleeting and variation of potency. Certainly the ECM mean does not support the op for those uppers, not even close, ditto GEFS mean. All subject to change, though D10 ECM op charts should never be banked when heights are involved.

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Just now, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

 

Yes - its a stonker but we have been here so many times with ECM since the upgrade around the time i started viewing models.

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30 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

ECM has progressed nicely over the last 24 hrs. The big question is what will the 192 chart look like tomorrow morning ?

Are we heading for a proper Greenland block ( or just a ridge that will collapse  ? )

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't help but notice how as soon has we get the first glimmer of a cold shot, it's quickly shot down in its chances by some. The fact its showing at all must at least give us some hope, let's face it, even day 9 and 10 cold charts have been lacking anything wintry this year so far... Lovely day 9/10 ECM chart... Let's build on it hopefully!! Oh and big welcome to Retron, a very good poster from two.... Somethings a brewing when he turns up.. ?

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait ?

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Very unsettled GFS 6z with wind and rain .fi looks a shocker compared to earlier PV very dominant and less troughing to the south east of Europe??

Edited by swfc
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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no sign that any greeny high can be sustained 

extended eps clusters vary varied and nothing particularly wintry on offer 

 

Yep - majority are back to westerlies by day 15 as the ridge quickly collapses. Long lasting cold doesn’t look very likely at this range, but if the stars align we might get a 24-48 hour northerly with some snow depending on where the wind lines up. I think most wild take this after the terrible winter so far!

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At D10 on 06z there remains a cluster with better amplification, but it is diminishing and the op has jumped ship today:

gens_panel_aza3.png

At this range still on the table, but seeing the mechanics of how the ECM builds this transient ridge it looks more an algorithmic contrive than something I could have faith in. I think the ECM D10 high amplification charts have been wrong for around 99 times in a row so maybe this is the time! If they had been right 99 times in a row we would have been snowed in & ravaged by another mini-Ice Age.

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