Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

Chances of this happening?? Let’s say I’m not going to bet my house on it! 

062849D9-FA36-46FE-A2F7-2ED39166DC12.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

There is not currently an El Nino present.

If you notice the colder SST's are on the coast of south America, and a very mild area closer to Australia, should it not be the other way around if there was no El Nino? Maybe someone can explain this better?

oissta-monthly-nnvl--web--2019-12-00.png

Edit..Yes your right it seems El Nino remains neutral, although temperatures remain above normal in the Tropical Pacific.

Edited by snowray

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

There is not currently an El Nino present.

image.thumb.png.ed3b3531f8ca6041ed7896f9f27caeb4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

If there is any El Nino, it is only a weak affair.

Problem for us though is that those warmer temperatures in the Pacific end up fueling the jet stream, notwithstanding that there isn't a strong El Nino currently.

Ecm at T240, nothing to write home about. Could start to see the HP migrate northwards though if we get lucky.

ECH1-240.png

Edited by snowray

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm thinking a better day of models folks...most definitely signs of height rises to our NE.. come on you beauty... Build in there... 🤞

 

 

 

Well ECM is closer to the GEM at D10, lets hope that we get a few upgrades for a change in the next couple of days.😉

gemeu-0-240.png

ECE1-240.png

gfseu-0-240.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some more  easterly options on the table...

P3                                                                 P5                                                        P7

image.thumb.png.ed5abc8d00521d1daf05499bf2a95b56.pngimage.thumb.png.4b93e9e1c6c876f6960d61db041f1d6e.pngimage.thumb.png.ce9d1cd1cfd09207cecc91a4212f6d76.png

P13                                                                and of course P16

image.thumb.png.3445a1d8227ce8ab7a4c33b827714a22.pngimage.thumb.png.dc36119895e6fcd4fbb48c9318ba8f78.png

we're UP to about 20% with this 12z suite 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well with wave activity and an mjo-projected stamp. We are indeed looking at a north eastern block format some can shoot it down as a model miss-synoptic but all elements/dynamics are now firmly in place... and a wave breaker into the vortex is a clear clear option . And I mentioned back in November that the Pacific punching will have to soon be a player for gain..... and it is!  So even most raw outs will highly likely start a stern notion of this format from here on !!!!then we look to bottled dynamic for cold incursion. January is not looking lost by a long way!!!!

 

Agree with you in the main although think if anything more right at the back end of Jan and Feb, it could be one of those times where it will take a few goes, the cold will be just too far East at first if indeed what i think may happen does materialise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The 850 zonals look to be in reasonable transition also . Although some will likely quote the anomalies as starkly against.  But they will be wrong!IMG_0156.GIF

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.5fb17f37f7aa42f8e7f3f6339cd0a34f.png

image.thumb.png.53bfd7d12ce03199085a71e0de12b902.png

image.thumb.png.24b2f78ed484808ea18ac76a3bcca62a.png

 

image.thumb.png.70552990ec330c82d3297353cd2b8d7d.png

image.thumb.png.d66f057cbbddec7e98962a4a9b617377.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with you in the main although think if anything more right at the back end of Jan and Feb, it could be one of those times where it will take a few goes, the cold will be just too far East at first if indeed what i think may happen does materialise.

The cold is waiting in the shelf... so any height transition will be just a switch mode it's fold then cold if you gain and get to the current formats mentioned! It's Hooray  at the penny arcade afterwards 

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Interesting from the US Navy... massive error bar to our north.

image.thumb.gif.588d0161b419c3070a3f318ae4c2ab0a.gif

Edited by Catacol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Even the 18z gods should certainly offer up a transition polar vortex as waves take action and we gain into the pole. With projected deciphering a clear vortexual split is a real possibility! As heights are of a forcing [email protected] Scandinavia and  localised-geographic points.

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS mean now sniffing the 09 / 91 coffee.............

image.thumb.png.aa9b5235854e8a3044d84fbac40610ba.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean now sniffing the 87 Coffee...........

image.thumb.png.aa9b5235854e8a3044d84fbac40610ba.png

EFA.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, carinthian said:

Our teams charts now showing quite a change by Mid-month. Something similar along the GEM /ECM lines these last few runs. A split and weakening of the  Atlantic 300mb winter jet with falling heights to the SW and rising to the NE . Maybe our long awaited change starting to gather a pace in the models. In the meanwhile, quite a stormy spell coming for the British Isles.

C

Evening all, a bit of a review regarding the above post sent earlier. The chart below from the latest Canadian model run looks promising. Much colder airmass moving SW into Eastern Europe around the high developing to the NE. We need to see the Atlantic trough dig deeper with an alignment NW/SE , this will help back the flow and bring the colder air ever so close to the Eastern shores of the British Isles. Looking at the winter jet profile on this run , this would favour this scenario. Todays GFS run earlier showed this but the latest run has more energy moving poleward as does ECM but certainly have room to revert as both do show some build in pressure to the east of the British Isles after next weeks stormy spell across Northern Britain recedes . Next week looks very mild for many with temps returning to nearer normal the following week, possibly 20% chance of turning very cold. Should get an up -date tomorrow from our team.

C

winteroverview_20200103_12_240.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

EFA.....

What does that mean Steve?

Sorry if im being a thicko!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looked through the various model runs and to be honest they look awful. Its highly unlikely that we will get heights in the right place as the northern arm of the jet will simply not allow it with such a well organized PV. Love to be proved wrong but the very best I can see is a mid Lat high. That will allow for some good time lapse snow videos from Greece but that's about it! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean now sniffing the 09 / 91 coffee.............

image.thumb.png.aa9b5235854e8a3044d84fbac40610ba.png

Really?

Looks poor from where i'm sitting Feb?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think any feed that we would get from the SE would be warmer than normal because of what has Happened so far.

We would need to see the colder air getting under a higher latitude block and nothing suggests that at this time 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jason M said:

Just looked through the various model runs and to be honest they look awful. Its highly unlikely that we will get heights in the right place as the northern arm of the jet will simply not allow it with such a well organized PV. Love to be proved wrong but the very best I can see is a mid Lat high. That will allow for some good time lapse snow videos from Greece but that's about it! 

Yes , ECM starting to look good for SE Europe 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...