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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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ECM doesn’t get there, but ever increasing signs for the high to be pulled out west. It’s just whether everything can line up for a potent northerly a la GFS....or nothing a la ECM. Finally a bit of interest after weeks of dross. The next few days will be good viewing!

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EC 12z looks a bit lame at day ten.low to the north west looks ready to flatten things out going forward.that said many runs to come hence scepticism isn't a bad trait atm even tho on the face of things it looks more interesting

Edited by swfc

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spacer.pngECM 0z @t240

 

spacer.pngECM 12z @t240

A little bit disappointing from ECM 12z at day 10 as others have said. ( compared to the 0z )

However there has definitely been a trend today in this direction from most of the models ( HP moving NW )

Cold fans are back in the game at least 

 

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GFS ensembles having a bit of a ‘moment’ I see.......
 

3FD9B33B-AB50-4BC8-83D0-6151EFC37C1F.thumb.png.487301d966927ae430caf93a8f078b86.png


Way to early to place any kind of confidence in the extended range, even if there is some ensemble support.

Hopefully GFS is sniffing out a cold pattern but we will just have to wait and see. 

Edited by chris55

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Looking at ECM up to 192 hrs goes with what is generally forecast across many weather channels and charts in general, but the last two charts of ecm 216 and 240 look rather odd .im not saying they wont evolve  like that   because like many on here  its a good step towards a pattern change which  most on here are craving for .Could be that when the high gets pushed west at 216 ecm we could see a rush of very cold air s east across us  just like GFS is hinting at . But i think at this range ,there are  many garden paths including one that could Sink , so lets sit back relax chill out ,I'm sure there is a beast lurking ,will report more  tomorrow ,inspection at 7am up the wood shed ,cheers gang STellas all round .

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Continued trends from the models today of a pattern change as we move out of the middle of the month, all thanks to changes in the arctic profile and position of the PV, probably a response to anticipated movement in the MJO, allowing the omni-present pacific high to ridge into the Pole, splintering the PV, with most energy transferred towards the siberian side with a secondary lobe N Canada - this has downstream implications as it allows for an amplified jet flow, aligning increasingly on a NW-SE path, which has the effect of enabling heights to advect NW towards Greenland, end result either a potent northerly or a cold unstable NW flow - both would be very cold as frigid air is spilt out from the Polar region.

In the shorter term - lots more wind and rain and generally mild weather to come, much snow for Scottish Highlands as well, and if the charts shown today verify in the 10 day timeframe then we could be talking lots of snow elsewhere, but lets not go there yet - need to see these charts creep into the reliable 144-168 hr timeframe.. so we need to see them hold this line for another 3-4 days yet..

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Something is brewing trend continues higher pressure pulling north and west with very cold northerlies wanting to pounce..

BC85B43A-D1E0-4813-8200-BEC2B1F1DD68.jpeg

E04CADAD-E4F1-4E3A-ADA9-339B43F53A9D.jpeg

FFC9A466-F551-480D-B3D7-836859AA6B6F.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Further to the above post, I think there is now good agreement with the latest models as shown by UKMO at 144t that a change in the NH pattern is to take place . A split of the PV is imminent with the NE pacific high ridging strongly into the Arctic the instigator for this change . How the synoptics pan out for NW Europe cannot yet be determined post 144t but a change to more amplification outlook more likely on the cards with the trigger changes now already taking places for a colder second half of the month.

C

UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

EDH0-240.thumb.gif.91f3052a99d083714a3f08ae7c680453.gif887092336_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.7d854315305e0e1ad29db42e16ea6c29.gif

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.5d8134987fda5a5fd8428ebb29855853.pnggensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.823a443abbf0da5a468e96a12dd9b5ab.png

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.056cf8c029abed5132b1c8fc7378e5ff.png With current: gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.5aa961b49106a2c61987911fbbb88fda.png

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

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21 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

EDH0-240.thumb.gif.91f3052a99d083714a3f08ae7c680453.gif887092336_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.7d854315305e0e1ad29db42e16ea6c29.gif

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.5d8134987fda5a5fd8428ebb29855853.pnggensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.823a443abbf0da5a468e96a12dd9b5ab.png

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.056cf8c029abed5132b1c8fc7378e5ff.png With current: gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.5aa961b49106a2c61987911fbbb88fda.png

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

🍒 picked?  Yes but no mean would ever pick up this detail. Remove the the details and this would not be far of the means you posted.

12CF9535-D195-4C91-87F9-917CF2CBBED9.png

F0CBED98-28C1-468C-A703-1342249EBAAA.png

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

🍒 picked?  Yes but no mean would ever pick up this detail. Remove the the details and this would not be far of the means you posted.

12CF9535-D195-4C91-87F9-917CF2CBBED9.png

F0CBED98-28C1-468C-A703-1342249EBAAA.png

Yes, I am going by the mean rather than clusters, as the latter are not too helpful, so as you say, within that mean the mesoscale details could produce something better than a mean way out in FI. Also, it could be a developing pattern change that is still not showing in the mean. I was just indicating that at the moment the signal for a change is not that obvious. The normal caveats that background factors could flip the models at short(ish) notice.

The D10 and D16 GEM means similar to the others:

591221992_gensnh-21-1-240(2).thumb.png.84a17b658ba3580cf30cc4dcbbbf43f5.png302712946_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.82ab27254dc5aafbe1b7d885324ae6dc.png

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Just now, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.95a8a1c3c3c5caffcc8da8c78f992153.pngimage.thumb.png.7d5cff258ec3cd0ce27e9a40ded5eb9a.pnglets count down 🙂

Just thinking the same thing, not quite as good but does it get there? 

gfsnh-0-276.png

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Last third of Jan beginning to look colder on GFS 18z..

Euro high destroyed and troughing north of the Canaries ..

image.thumb.png.743ea77312c5adf13b14236be4f4892c.png

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FI but just for fun

gfsnh-1-300.png

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just love watching the cold roll in from the east 😍

DCEBD649-901C-41B8-A253-19D07F737ABA.png

DC73E112-6DFA-4A0F-9DFC-F25B734331EC.png

8BA61623-A628-4D4B-9C3F-B48970673276.png

So what's the likelihood of counting down to 0 from 13 days out? 😂 

The previous run was colder sooner than the pub run.... 

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Scandi high this time..Very different to the 12z but hopefully a pattered emerging where it’s a case of all roads leading to cold ...

CE7DA7AF-3E08-4628-AA43-59431B1D02C7.png

45C6661C-9504-40AB-99F4-5B106AF52D01.png

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6 minutes ago, Griff said:

FI but just for fun

gfsnh-1-300.png

Why not call it?  HP for me to be in wrong place...but it will only take a little tweak for this cold set up to occur.  Can you see a trend?  Genuine ask.  There might be one occurring
 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Now that was a sneaky but cold easterly popping up in FI, didn't see that coming looking at the evolution beforehand!

Always find WZ looks so much better than meteociel charts everyone posts, maybe it's just me

GFSOPEU18_300_2.thumb.png.f841177effaac25b9ea903df5da50fed.pngGFSOPEU18_300_1.thumb.png.2c953f52c334dcb5778e08a9c7789233.png

Edited by Nick F

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Bingo door as finely opened up cold easterly snow showers ..

BBD7A345-0A60-4070-A4E5-C996BE1F849C.png

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