Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Continued trends from the models today of a pattern change as we move out of the middle of the month, all thanks to changes in the arctic profile and position of the PV, probably a response to anticipated movement in the MJO, allowing the omni-present pacific high to ridge into the Pole, splintering the PV, with most energy transferred towards the siberian side with a secondary lobe N Canada - this has downstream implications as it allows for an amplified jet flow, aligning increasingly on a NW-SE path, which has the effect of enabling heights to advect NW towards Greenland, end result either a potent northerly or a cold unstable NW flow - both would be very cold as frigid air is spilt out from the Polar region.

In the shorter term - lots more wind and rain and generally mild weather to come, much snow for Scottish Highlands as well, and if the charts shown today verify in the 10 day timeframe then we could be talking lots of snow elsewhere, but lets not go there yet - need to see these charts creep into the reliable 144-168 hr timeframe.. so we need to see them hold this line for another 3-4 days yet..

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Further to the above post, I think there is now good agreement with the latest models as shown by UKMO at 144t that a change in the NH pattern is to take place . A split of the PV is imminent with the NE pacific high ridging strongly into the Arctic the instigator for this change . How the synoptics pan out for NW Europe cannot yet be determined post 144t but a change to more amplification outlook more likely on the cards with the trigger changes now already taking places for a colder second half of the month.

C

UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

EDH0-240.thumb.gif.91f3052a99d083714a3f08ae7c680453.gif887092336_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.7d854315305e0e1ad29db42e16ea6c29.gif

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.5d8134987fda5a5fd8428ebb29855853.pnggensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.823a443abbf0da5a468e96a12dd9b5ab.png

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.056cf8c029abed5132b1c8fc7378e5ff.png With current: gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.5aa961b49106a2c61987911fbbb88fda.png

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
21 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not really seeing a change in pattern to cold in the last half of January for the UK?

Looking at the D10 ECM means:

EDH0-240.thumb.gif.91f3052a99d083714a3f08ae7c680453.gif887092336_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.7d854315305e0e1ad29db42e16ea6c29.gif

That takes us to the last week or so of January and average uppers at best! The GEFS offers similar:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.5d8134987fda5a5fd8428ebb29855853.pnggensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.823a443abbf0da5a468e96a12dd9b5ab.png

So neither suggests a change. Looking at the D16 mean on the GEFS:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.056cf8c029abed5132b1c8fc7378e5ff.png With current: gensnh-21-1-0.thumb.png.5aa961b49106a2c61987911fbbb88fda.png

...and we have gone full circle, tPV draining to Siberia and then returning across the Arctic fields back to NE Canada. In such a scenario we would expect a temporary lull in heights to the NW as this cycle completes. Maybe we can get a topple out of it, or a wedge of heights leaking north; but this to me, on what I can see, is the same-old same-old in a repeating zonal pattern with the odd interlude of a mini-ridge? Anyways we will see...

picked?  Yes but no mean would ever pick up this detail. Remove the the details and this would not be far of the means you posted.

12CF9535-D195-4C91-87F9-917CF2CBBED9.png

F0CBED98-28C1-468C-A703-1342249EBAAA.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

picked?  Yes but no mean would ever pick up this detail. Remove the the details and this would not be far of the means you posted.

12CF9535-D195-4C91-87F9-917CF2CBBED9.png

F0CBED98-28C1-468C-A703-1342249EBAAA.png

Yes, I am going by the mean rather than clusters, as the latter are not too helpful, so as you say, within that mean the mesoscale details could produce something better than a mean way out in FI. Also, it could be a developing pattern change that is still not showing in the mean. I was just indicating that at the moment the signal for a change is not that obvious. The normal caveats that background factors could flip the models at short(ish) notice.

The D10 and D16 GEM means similar to the others:

591221992_gensnh-21-1-240(2).thumb.png.84a17b658ba3580cf30cc4dcbbbf43f5.png302712946_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.82ab27254dc5aafbe1b7d885324ae6dc.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just love watching the cold roll in from the east

DCEBD649-901C-41B8-A253-19D07F737ABA.png

DC73E112-6DFA-4A0F-9DFC-F25B734331EC.png

8BA61623-A628-4D4B-9C3F-B48970673276.png

So what's the likelihood of counting down to 0 from 13 days out?  

The previous run was colder sooner than the pub run.... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Scandi high this time..Very different to the 12z but hopefully a pattered emerging where it’s a case of all roads leading to cold ...

CE7DA7AF-3E08-4628-AA43-59431B1D02C7.png

45C6661C-9504-40AB-99F4-5B106AF52D01.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

FI but just for fun

gfsnh-1-300.png

Why not call it?  HP for me to be in wrong place...but it will only take a little tweak for this cold set up to occur.  Can you see a trend?  Genuine ask.  There might be one occurring
 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Now that was a sneaky but cold easterly popping up in FI, didn't see that coming looking at the evolution beforehand!

Always find WZ looks so much better than meteociel charts everyone posts, maybe it's just me

GFSOPEU18_300_2.thumb.png.f841177effaac25b9ea903df5da50fed.pngGFSOPEU18_300_1.thumb.png.2c953f52c334dcb5778e08a9c7789233.png

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Griff said:

So what's the likelihood of counting down to 0 from 13 days out?  

The previous run was colder sooner than the pub run.... 

Shhh it’s gonna count down smoothly . I’m just grateful to be seeing some stonking output . 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, Griff said:

So what's the likelihood of counting down to 0 from 13 days out?  

The previous run was colder sooner than the pub run.... 

Slim at best tbh. Models are not consistent at all atm and any cold is already getting pushed back. If it all firms up over next few days then great but I for one won’t be getting burned again by this particular rollercoaster 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Nick F said:

Now that was a sneaky but cold easterly popping up in FI, didn't see that coming looking at the evolution beforehand!

There is some similarity between GFS 18z and EC det by day 9/10 this evening.

I was thinking PM shots but perhaps the momentum is moving towards a Scandy high?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Seems like another part of the puzzle unfolding on the gfs   now an easterly, where will this all end. Hang on gang we could be digging ourselves out soon .very interesting synoptics for us coldies, over to tomorrow for the Ecm .

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...