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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    diagram  2...

    I'll elaborate. .

    later....

    imagej91vo.webp

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  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Nice to see some BOOM charts from the operational for once, probably first time this winter? albeit too far out to have confidence. 

    But a pattern change may well be afoot in next few weeks as we see a reshuffle in the upper patterns upstream in next 7 days or so, thanks perhaps in part the coherent movement of MJO into phase 7. Upper level ridge pushing poleward over NE Pacific helping to amplify the pattern and split up the raging PV sat to our NW.

    However, we all know too well these teases can be a false lead, especially as we've been at the mercy of a strong PV since late December - a pattern which history tells us can set in for the rest of winter if it sets in by early January.

    great post..

    the trickular  of polar vortex as set via models is in disruption  in itself as we gain. .

    honestly. .all alleys  are open for suction  of vortex  movement. .

    and limpet  of usual. ..is now looking  2nd best! !a inpactual  -NAO. . inbound 

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 12 z @t288

    The ridge does indeed topple as expected but not before a potent 48 hour Northerly bringing very cold air flooding South according to GFS 12z

    ( we haven't seen the Jet Stream looking like this for a few weeks )

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    great post..

    the trickular  of polar vortex as set via models is in disruption  in itself as we gain. .

    honestly. .all alleys  are open for suction  of vortex  movement. .

    and limpet  of usual. ..is now looking  2nd best! !a inpactual  -NAO. . inbound 

    Too many more charts like these, and I suspect I'll be having trouble with my trickular too, TI!:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    39 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    Your not wrong, but will turn out a rogue...A massive cold outlier

    Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far ?

    image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, Purga said:

    Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far ?

    image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

    The control is probably going to be stronger with the ridge?

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    image.thumb.png.8c8972372c7bd228770f1d81d6350aa9.png

    GEM day 10 also sniffing out something much more appealing!!!

    Im beginning to think this thread might start picking up over the coming days..

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GEFS at D11 a bit random so looks like GFS has not mastered what happens at that time period. Only two GEFS support the op (19 even better):

    gens_panel_aet8.png

    Looks a complicated setup so no comment as to where we arrive by then. Long shot for sure as we stand. The GEM much flatter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    A long way to go before we dare get excited but at least some interesting charts cropping up in FI, P16 and P19 are synoptically similar to Op

     

    gensnh-16-1-252.pnggensnh-19-1-252.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    1 minute ago, That ECM said:

    The control is probably going to be stronger with the ridge?

    Yes and I'll usually raise an eyebrow when the Op & Control trend together. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    bang. ..bang it's a massive  hemisphere  transfer. ..

    so operationals  should be the lead!

    ensembles  decipher. . in between   outs !!!. .as /control 

    with inversion. .

     

    this is indeed where all -simple-ness  makes easy. ..then for decipher  of sync. 

     

    some classic data awaits. ..yet this time with optimal  support from guidelines! !!..

    and nearer time frames  outside. ..

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    P19 is ridiculous! Looks a bit like January 2003, one of the best snow events I can remember down here. M11 closed with loads of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    But to balance things out, just trying to be level headed there are 3 or 4 that are near on Bartletts.

    Let's not mention those ?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    36 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far ?

    image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

    Actually very good agreement out to 10 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Too many more charts like these, and I suspect I'll be having trouble with my trickular too, TI!:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Not a bad looking pair of charts there be it a long long shot.GC isn't a trickular a throat operation!!!??? WAWAW

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 hour ago, Purga said:

    Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far ?

    image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

    Also GFS Operational isn't even the coldest one. Where did this output suddenly come from as there was NOTHING AT ALL until today's 12Z GFS run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    ECM along the same lines again . Definitely a trend on all models today for height rises to the north west . Keep it coming . D7646924-659E-4991-BB7C-C92845F501F2.thumb.png.fb48317ba229016fadfcc123b884e86a.png1848D057-92A0-40B4-B1F3-DA26D3D59CE8.thumb.png.3ae455657601e205eec59ab68528a736.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM doesn’t get there, but ever increasing signs for the high to be pulled out west. It’s just whether everything can line up for a potent northerly a la GFS....or nothing a la ECM. Finally a bit of interest after weeks of dross. The next few days will be good viewing!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    EC 12z looks a bit lame at day ten.low to the north west looks ready to flatten things out going forward.that said many runs to come hence scepticism isn't a bad trait atm even tho on the face of things it looks more interesting

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngECM 0z @t240

     

    spacer.pngECM 12z @t240

    A little bit disappointing from ECM 12z at day 10 as others have said. ( compared to the 0z )

    However there has definitely been a trend today in this direction from most of the models ( HP moving NW )

    Cold fans are back in the game at least 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    GFS ensembles having a bit of a ‘moment’ I see.......
     

    3FD9B33B-AB50-4BC8-83D0-6151EFC37C1F.thumb.png.487301d966927ae430caf93a8f078b86.png


    Way to early to place any kind of confidence in the extended range, even if there is some ensemble support.

    Hopefully GFS is sniffing out a cold pattern but we will just have to wait and see. 

    Edited by chris55
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