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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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On this run GFS gives us a cut off low in Iberia that supports the UK high allowing the energy from the next HP cell to build a temporary ridge. Once that cut off low sinks south in the Atlantic, the ridge topples. This scenario pops up now and then as the algorithms go their own way but are rarely duplicated on the next run:

anim_diu1.gif

Not saying it isn't possible (it is) but looks risky to bet on. Again, it is not forcing, so not a pattern change per se, and means no route to sustained cold. Need this to be repeated on the GFS 40+ times before we can bank!

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3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes I know wrong thread 

 

NOW we are talking !!

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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nice to see some BOOM charts from the operational for once, probably first time this winter? albeit too far out to have confidence. 

But a pattern change may well be afoot in next few weeks as we see a reshuffle in the upper patterns upstream in next 7 days or so, thanks perhaps in part the coherent movement of MJO into phase 7. Upper level ridge pushing poleward over NE Pacific helping to amplify the pattern and split up the raging PV sat to our NW.

However, we all know too well these teases can be a false lead, especially as we've been at the mercy of a strong PV since late December - a pattern which history tells us can set in for the rest of winter if it sets in by early January.

great post..

the trickular  of polar vortex as set via models is in disruption  in itself as we gain. .

honestly. .all alleys  are open for suction  of vortex  movement. .

and limpet  of usual. ..is now looking  2nd best! !a inpactual  -NAO. . inbound 

Edited by tight isobar
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spacer.pngGFS 12 z @t288

The ridge does indeed topple as expected but not before a potent 48 hour Northerly bringing very cold air flooding South according to GFS 12z

( we haven't seen the Jet Stream looking like this for a few weeks )

 

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

great post..

the trickular  of polar vortex as set via models is in disruption  in itself as we gain. .

honestly. .all alleys  are open for suction  of vortex  movement. .

and limpet  of usual. ..is now looking  2nd best! !a inpactual  -NAO. . inbound 

Too many more charts like these, and I suspect I'll be having trouble with my trickular too, TI!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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39 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Your not wrong, but will turn out a rogue...A massive cold outlier

Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far 😉

image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

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Just now, Purga said:

Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far 😉

image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

The control is probably going to be stronger with the ridge😄

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image.thumb.png.8c8972372c7bd228770f1d81d6350aa9.png

GEM day 10 also sniffing out something much more appealing!!!

Im beginning to think this thread might start picking up over the coming days..

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GEFS at D11 a bit random so looks like GFS has not mastered what happens at that time period. Only two GEFS support the op (19 even better):

gens_panel_aet8.png

Looks a complicated setup so no comment as to where we arrive by then. Long shot for sure as we stand. The GEM much flatter.

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A long way to go before we dare get excited but at least some interesting charts cropping up in FI, P16 and P19 are synoptically similar to Op

 

gensnh-16-1-252.pnggensnh-19-1-252.png

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The control is probably going to be stronger with the ridge😄

Yes and I'll usually raise an eyebrow when the Op & Control trend together. 😉

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bang. ..bang it's a massive  hemisphere  transfer. ..

so operationals  should be the lead!

ensembles  decipher. . in between   outs !!!. .as /control 

with inversion. .

 

this is indeed where all -simple-ness  makes easy. ..then for decipher  of sync. 

 

some classic data awaits. ..yet this time with optimal  support from guidelines! !!..

and nearer time frames  outside. ..

Edited by tight isobar
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20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

A long way to go before we dare get excited but at least some interesting charts cropping up in FI, P16 and P19 are synoptically similar to Op

 

gensnh-16-1-252.pnggensnh-19-1-252.png

But to balance things out, just trying to be level headed there are 3 or 4 that are near on Bartletts.

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P19 is ridiculous! Looks a bit like January 2003, one of the best snow events I can remember down here. M11 closed with loads of snow.

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MT8_Nuuk_ens.png

Split of options shows very well in the Nuuk ensembles...

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4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

But to balance things out, just trying to be level headed there are 3 or 4 that are near on Bartletts.

Let's not mention those 🙂

 

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36 minutes ago, Purga said:

Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far 😉

image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

Actually very good agreement out to 10 days.

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Too many more charts like these, and I suspect I'll be having trouble with my trickular too, TI!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Not a bad looking pair of charts there be it a long long shot.GC isn't a trickular a throat operation!!!🙃🙃🙃 WAWAW

Edited by swfc
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1 hour ago, Purga said:

Nope - no outlier, it (Op run) has reasonable cluster support so far 😉

image.thumb.png.b7196b25b44452a8af8bf252606e3957.png

Also GFS Operational isn't even the coldest one. Where did this output suddenly come from as there was NOTHING AT ALL until today's 12Z GFS run.

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ECM along the same lines again . Definitely a trend on all models today for height rises to the north west . Keep it coming . D7646924-659E-4991-BB7C-C92845F501F2.thumb.png.fb48317ba229016fadfcc123b884e86a.png1848D057-92A0-40B4-B1F3-DA26D3D59CE8.thumb.png.3ae455657601e205eec59ab68528a736.png

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