Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm wondering if things may finally becoming a little more interesting Blue-

Certainly for those north with altitude.

UK high if it floats your boat cold air coming round the backside dry atleast, as for snow rare as hen's teeth😅.

Screenshot_20200110-214704_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200110-214727_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200110-215027_Chrome.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, booferking said:

UK high if it floats your boat cold air coming round the backside dry atleast, as for snow rare as hen's teeth😅.

Screenshot_20200110-214704_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200110-214727_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200110-215027_Chrome.jpg

Im thinking PM flow longer term ...

HP nearby initially then pulled west into the West Atlantic.

🙂

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im thinking PM flow longer term ...

HP nearby initially then pulled west into the West Atlantic.

🙂

 

Long way off but pressure lowers again around Greenland late on but any sign of significant cold spell not insight possibly topplers tough times this winter.

Screenshot_20200110-215837_Chrome.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why do I even dare to hope for close to day 10?

gfsnh-0-234.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big northerly is what I'm hoping to see again at the end of this gfs run.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If we can get to this point it's game on...

image.thumb.png.2034003f54e82151d8c4bd46ec95af77.png

Looks like we have light at the end of the tunnel my friend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What the GFS is showing in tune with other models is the core of the PV to shift towards Siberia - still with a weaker secondary lobe N Canada, but importantly allow the trough to back westwards, allowing heights to build in close to the UK.. a flow from between north and west, rather than west and south direction of travel, with heights advecting westwards - scandi trough formation plausible.. 

As I said any polar maritime flow will be preety potent given the very cold uppers that will be wrapped within thanks to the bottled up cold air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What the GFS is showing in tune with other models is the core of the PV to shift towards Siberia - still with a weaker secondary lobe N Canada, but importantly allow the trough to back westwards, allowing heights to build in close to the UK.. a flow from between north and west, rather than west and south direction of travel, with heights advecting westwards - scandi trough formation plausible.. 

As I said any polar maritime flow will be preety potent given the very cold uppers that will be wrapped within thanks to the bottled up cold air.

If we have to settle for a polar NW'ly when all said and done, I'll take it firmly with both hands!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely wretched 0z run from gfs, those blasted heights in the South refusing to budge, you can see why SM has thrown in the towel on this winter. 

 

Let's hope ECM is better, can't be any worse! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Absolutely wretched 0z run from gfs, those blasted heights in the South refusing to budge, you can see why SM has thrown in the towel on this winter. 

 

Let's hope ECM is better, can't be any worse! 

I've noticed that just now.

 

I think we have to accept the heights to our south as the new climate norm.  Climate change will push things north-wards, and that means we can kiss any decent cold winter weather goodbye.  We're faced with a future of either Atlantic storminess, or the pallid dross we've experienced so far this winter.  I give up.

Edited by Mr TOAD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday’s t240 today’s t216  and today’s t240 from ecm 0z run. Still something of interest to view👍 Someone said “another garden path” so far this season we haven’t even looked at a window box😩😩 added the perbs for fi and there are more trending the way which would be of interest. A lot of this winter even fi offered little interest.

530B74CB-4B51-4885-B9B1-AD94EC1D97FF.png

1B27D8F8-F117-4B8C-B7EE-ED1A55BCB86D.png

BE062705-0D8B-4D94-88CD-E32F88DA4E84.png

gens_panel_asj8.png

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EC looking very good this morning!!

image.thumb.png.39267db265b3ab4c173ff012daf63a24.png

GFS much flatter at day 10

image.thumb.png.87a17f0a48dc8ed71890bbe73a0d451d.png

In a winter were i have done a lot of moaning i think its high time the weather Gods gave us all something to smile about!

EC day 10 NH view is rather interesting..

image.thumb.png.c90b1007e360de8f2e9a1d8d7e177f7b.png

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst the EC det looks much more palatable i think its probably prudent to see how the mean looks - its been pretty gash upto now but if there is some kind of signal for a bit of amplification i would want to start seeing a better mean later on..

TBF even the flatter GFS op does get some energy into Europe to allow a few decent PM shots which would possibly deliver to northerners esp with some altitude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pressure falling over the Med, area of High pressure drifting North towards Scandinavia, possible undercut!

Could this be the first tentative signs of a pattern change?

 

Fax chart 15 Jan 2020.png

Edited by snowblizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As expected, still little in the way of a winter pre-February looking likely. Any oscillation of the Atlantic/UK high is stymied by the tPV to our north. So GEFS D10 mean suggests temporary UK heights:

500171944_gensnh-21-1-240(1).thumb.png.bc0313470747947b6d75b2097a785104.png  D13 mean: gensnh-21-1-312.thumb.png.3e424ae433903f90b87ea9b55da132e3.png

By D13 the high is sinking and most likely back to a westerly/NW'ly zonal flow. Any tendency for the GEFS to show a NW to SE flow diving into a ScEuro trough needs to be treated with caution as this winter a bit of a false dawn. Of course, as it invariably does, the ECM D10 op produces another cliffhanger ending, that is unlikely to verify if its previous record is known. The ECM D10 mean:

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.48b4214ef187b380bec6a9d6b3069fd9.gif

GEM is simnilar to the GFS at D10:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.7ff75d17e3fd6960607bc397774940ec.png

So winter remains still on hold till late January for many of us!

Edited by IDO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Pressure falling over the Med, area of High pressure drifting North towards Scandinavia, possible undercut!

Could this be the first tentative signs of a pattern change?

 

Fax chart 15 Jan 2020.png

There is some interest but its so very hard to have faith in anything that would depart us from this awful pattern that has,by and large totally dominated since early Dec.

EC appears to be more bullish but that model has burned me so many times i'm a bit sceptical.

Its very quiet in here at the moment- maybe there are more doubting Thomas's like me out there 😄

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Run of the day so far is definitely the ECM with a day 10 ridge building into Greenland with plenty of WAA. GFS not without interest in deep FI though with snow potential...

0DEB864A-2785-41C5-AEC7-FD3388B20ABA.png

45C90F75-9E2F-46CA-8CC7-BFD03A8FD952.png

5AA06E68-E5F6-4BF0-97FD-6C3E588AD791.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ooooh look snow for many 😄 so cheer up folks....

image.thumb.png.628dad17b0b30215b2a29220557e64bb.pngimage.thumb.png.43e14a6fd9847d01b8898851f94524a3.pngimage.thumb.png.41e62bcb7b76c4dd85cc4cc4415a5586.png

Guaranteed of course 😎

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looking very good this morning!!

image.thumb.png.39267db265b3ab4c173ff012daf63a24.png

GFS much flatter at day 10

image.thumb.png.87a17f0a48dc8ed71890bbe73a0d451d.png

In a winter were i have done a lot of moaning i think its high time the weather Gods gave us all something to smile about!

EC day 10 NH view is rather interesting..

image.thumb.png.c90b1007e360de8f2e9a1d8d7e177f7b.png

The fact is that even the Gfs at day 10 has drained the PV from its residence as does ECM

Changes are afoot 

Screenshot_20200111_090200_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

Screenshot_20200111_090623_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Absolutely wretched 0z run from gfs, those blasted heights in the South refusing to budge, you can see why SM has thrown in the towel on this winter. 

Let's hope ECM is better, can't be any worse! 

One thing I've noticed, SLEETY, is that the 00Z tends to emphasise warmer T850s, and the 12Z rather less-so...? Not that that's likely to mean much, at the end of the day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the day 10 ECM mean

 

85902684-F012-41E6-9DA0-E9F3D332165D.png
I’ll take that. Not saying it’s going to lead to anything but there are definite signs of a change later this month. I mentioned the other day about a few GFS members moving the PV to Siberia and this shows there is a signal there now from the ECM

Edited by Decemberof2010

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still a bit worried that we get a small rise of pressure followed by everything collapsing again. GFS 00z ensembles showing this today:


image.thumb.png.1c74deb469ff220e9eb4486595fea484.png

ECM looks a bit more promising, but nothing too concrete to pin your hopes on. If this window of opportunity is slammed shut, then how long before the next?
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...