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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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10 minutes ago, jules216 said:

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

You have to bear in mind that there is usually a 10-12 day lagged response to the phase of the MJO, so unlikely to see the effects on the upper patterns over N Atlantic as far as the GFS/GEFS goes for now. 

However, as the composites are a blend of different pressure/height patterns in response to phase 7 in different ENSO modes in a particular month with no reflection of the base state of the atmosphere, e.g very strong but increasingly stretched PV, we cannot expect the pattern change to exactly what is shown in the Jan or Feb composites.

Edited by Nick F
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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

You have to bear in mind that there is usually a 10-12 day lagged response to the phase of the MJO, so unlikely to see the effects on the upper patterns over N Atlantic as far as the GFS/GEFS goes for now. 

However, as the composites are a blend of different pressure/height patterns in response to phase 7 in different ENSO modes in a particular month with no reflection of the base state of the atmosphere, e.g very strong but increasingly stretched PV, we cannot expect the pattern change to exactly what is shown in the Jan or Feb composites.

But even if we account to lag of 10 days + the pattern gets even worse looking at CFS or Euro weeklies/seasonal with even stronger Euro high anomaly. Last year we had SSW and weak vortex still the same Euro high result. Whatever way we look at things, QBO,solar etc. non of those variables managed to budge the pesky high pressure

uG9FvkxoIa.png

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

But even if we account to lag of 10 days + the pattern gets even worse looking at CFS or Euro weeklies/seasonal with even stronger Euro high anomaly. Last year we had SSW and weak vortex still the same Euro high result. Whatever way we look at things, QBO,solar etc. non of those variables managed to budge the pesky high pressure

uG9FvkxoIa.png

Yes this Euro trash High,is really ruining another winter things are looking less promising today,,but the powerful jet stream is also the big problem,but even if that eases off,it’s still the Euro High that looks like taking control,of the weather.

Oh well the models will show its demise in about 6 weeks or so when winter ends,which is usually the case for most winters now!

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For what it’s worth the GFS keeps the main convective burst west of the dateline which tends to produce mid rather than high latitude blocking so perhaps the Euro is onto something.

 

image.gif

 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Really disappointing models today, especially for snowfall to the Alps. GFS yesterday was showing significant precipitation for the Alps with a low pressure centred over Italy the tail end of next week. This has now disappeared completely!

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Greenland recorded its coldest temperature ever. The polar vortex keeping the coldest air trapped in. If we could tap in to a Northerly it would be something else. 2010 is the last proper Northerly I can remember. 

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1 hour ago, Snowy Winter said:

Really disappointing models today, especially for snowfall to the Alps. GFS yesterday was showing significant precipitation for the Alps with a low pressure centred over Italy the tail end of next week. This has now disappeared completely!

Welcome Snowy Winter. Yes, 2 weeks of high pressure over Austria gone and another week to come. Steady at 1025-1030mb . Seems unlikely to budge according to the latest UKMO run below. Tedious to say the least but very nice in the warm sunshine. The lack of snowfall will start to take its toll next week.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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2 hours ago, Snowy Winter said:

Really disappointing models today, especially for snowfall to the Alps. GFS yesterday was showing significant precipitation for the Alps with a low pressure centred over Italy the tail end of next week. This has now disappeared completely!

This was the same area of low pressure that was going to help prop up a ridge of high pressure over NW Europe. Without that, it just sinks back into Europe.

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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite a wintry FI on GFS 12Z this evening.

A trend to something more palatable for late Jan emerging i wonder..

Lets keep our fingers crossed that we don't just end up with phantom eye candy in deep FI popping up and then disappearing until the end of the month. The ECM has been very consistent and until it come's on board showing a colder spell of weather out around D8/9 we can forget it.

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite a wintry FI on GFS 12Z this evening.

A trend to something more palatable for late Jan emerging i wonder..

yes NWS and i'm quite liking the way that the GEM 12z is heading around 19th Jan too

spacer.png   gem-0-222.png?12

 

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^^

Yes, GEM looks similar to GFS by day 9/10  - i don't think we are looking at freeze , perhaps something along the lines of what Exeter are suggestive of, ie cold enough for snow northern hills and perhaps to low levels at times.

Sounds like a north westerly or PM shots.

Hopefully with a bit of dig in them..

Edited by northwestsnow
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I’m not totally convinced yet....looks distinctly possible the high will only temporarily build in before being squeezed back south again - leaving us in more westerlies. The best bit of the extended gfs is that it pushes the main vortex away from our side over into Siberia.

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC leads me to believe we are heading in the right direction.

Sorry on phone cant post charts.

ECH1-240.GIF?10-0
Heights low over the med and amplification returning. Still not quite there. 

Edited by Snowman.
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with  the  stormy  weather  coming now and next week  ,fantasy world  is trying its  best saying we  could get snowed in  deep in to la  la land

gfs-2-372.png

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27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note the eps control is v cold late on with a cold block and uppers -7/-10 post day 12 

apropos of nothing .....

I'm wondering if things may finally becoming a little more interesting Blue-

Certainly for those north with altitude.

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