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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Just now, Newberryone said:

Doubtful that we’ll even manage some form of mid latitude block with again the likelihood of too much energy still spilling out of the jets northern arm. Our winter foe very much there again to our south by days 9 and 10 bringing at best some chilly overnight temps but nothing of note I’m afraid. Best we can hope for would perhaps for there to be a displacement of the high away to the southwest leading to a northwesterly flow of sorts. In summary, very changeable/unsettled up to around 17th with the prospects of things becoming much more benign soon after. The wait goes on...

61D14905-FE08-45AB-A096-D4764B357D23.jpeg

TBH its a day 10 chart but my take on it would be slightly different -

The NH pattern gives a better picture ?

 

 

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If someone offered me that day ten ECM chart I would happily take it .

Of course there are concerns with a chunk of the PV hanging around over northern Canada but we don’t know exactly where that ends up .

If it’s more towards Hudson’s Bay that would be fine . The main PV heading towards Siberia does leave a window of opportunity .

Given some of the horror charts coldies have been subjected to the day ten ECM indicates a pattern change .

Yup-

By day 10 there are cold options, my only reservation would be the progression from day 7 which looks pretty flat and then suddenly looks potentially amplified by day 10.Perhaps the much anticipated MJO change is beginning to allow for a bit of Atlantic retrogression down the line.

For me its getting to the nitty gritty , we have looked at +NAO dross for far too long.The last third of Jan is prime time - its only my opinion but mid Feb onwards doesn't cut it, too much solar input for my liking.

Hopefully there is good news regarding the MJO as it may well be our wildcard .

Edited by northwestsnow
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A few colder ensemble members starting to appear towards the end of the month:

image.thumb.png.48550b4c0705d8b4f1e2849986240018.png

Only 5/20 at present, but with high pressure potentially moving in then it could unlock the door to something colder. MJO looking more promising, AO on the way down towards neutral/slight negative. 

 image.thumb.png.3e677fb40d5b99a44428b2cbc944cf78.png

Edited by mb018538
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

A few colder ensemble members starting to appear towards the end of the month:
image.thumb.png.48550b4c0705d8b4f1e2849986240018.png
 

EC mean is crap .

Perhaps a faint hint of high pressure moving into the Atlantic day 10 but thats a long way out.

Edited by northwestsnow
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is crap .

Perhaps a faint hint of high pressure moving into the Atlantic day 10 but thats a long way out.

To be fair, it often is if a possible change is in the offering. Don’t get me wrong I’m not swinging from the chandelier with excitement but at least it’s something to discuss ?

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A quieter day today but more unsettled weather on the way. 

During tonight into tomorrow a low in the Atlantic will deepen and move over Iceland but its associated weather fronts bring a spell of very wet weather tonight into tomorrow for Western Scotland in particular with northern Ireland having some heavy and persistent rain throughout tomorrow too this then transfers southwards with parts of northwest England and perhaps northwest Wales receiving some high rainfall totals as much as 40-60mm is shown for these areas especially on hills with as much as 70-100mm in western Scotland this all accompanied by a very strong wind with gales particularly in exposure with gusts upto 60mph perhaps more on the pennines.. Further south although it will be mainly dry tomorrow during the day it will be windy with gusts of 30-40mph. The rain then effecting England and Wales overnight tomorrow clearing during Sunday morning this accompanied by some strong perhaps squally winds before it clears.. Colder behind All this with wintry showers on Sunday mainly for Scotland. 

GFS.. 

2099741995_00_33_preciptype(1).thumb.png.f0e114ec642193a21638439bbeab334e.png

804348301_00_39_preciptype(2).thumb.png.bcf7b23a7fd46aa78ed8088a0f27cd74.png

Tomorrow night.. 

00_51_preciptype.thumb.png.b000b8d5c7890457ca53c61be339955d.png

Wind gusts.. 

00_33_windvector_gust.thumb.png.ae138d38cf219ac1f227f9d3b926228e.png

1175990507_00_45_windvector_gust(2).thumb.png.19ce9f1edd29026155e7cfe1f9b31104.png

Early next week as I said a few days ago still looking very unsettled with an area low pressure exiting newfoundland set to deepen significantly as it approaches the Uk bit of uncertainty how close the centre will get but rain spreading across all through Monday with very strong winds perhaps gales in places. 

Here's the jet stream for Monday.. 

660615339_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_84(5).thumb.jpg.21f439fbcd0c42fd5eec25b480b4b3ea.jpg

But its a low developing just to the south of that storm that's worth keeping an eye on.. 

IMG_20200110_084257.thumb.jpg.b93089784aa3f2ca7f43f2a32cb29a0c.jpg

357627246_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_108(7).thumb.jpg.91e1d267a943b5b77719f561158d4e10.jpg

A very strong jetstream above it and with that the potential for a rapidly developing low as it potentially crosses the uk on Tuesday bringing not only more rain but the risk of widespread gales for England and Wales.

Here the Gem, Gfs and Ukmo on that system.. 

Gem.. ?

1164680594_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(15).thumb.jpg.ba51d645e46e4c831514e8a0a6bb435b.jpg

GFS.. ?

276330116_EUROPE_PRMSL_108(10).thumb.jpg.3fb98f6a972229230ff4769bf74fbd09.jpg

Ukmo.. ?

445704673_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_120(11).thumb.jpg.a2af5c60ab8e4a72569970d34af447c1.jpg

Throughout the rest of next week like I mentioned a couple days ago with a jetstream continuing to be strong across the Atlantic into the UK the weather will remain unsettled with more wet and windy spells mabye another deep low at the end of next week again.

1803393533_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_132(1).thumb.jpg.53bfcb0ed2b619e608936985240eb214.jpg

1390882619_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_180(5).thumb.jpg.c874c0041170ac00ab2a1abaa7c8ca3e.jpg

A blend of the Ecmwf, Gem and Ecm output below.. 

Wednesday 15th..?

144442895_EUROPE_PRMSL_138(10).thumb.jpg.4f34642497b2caa565f36fa6766b9b15.jpg

16th..?

2063342833_EUROPE_PRMSL_162(7).thumb.jpg.3a2f375892486db21a495b86373d669d.jpg

17th..?

1213659604_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(12).thumb.jpg.c885364ccf3165890673ec1add1b3699.jpg

So upto the end of next week it's unsettled and mostly mild although colder air will effect the uk at times with some wintry showers for Scotland perhaps more significant snow on high ground on the northern edge of systems moving in. 

18th..?

1511536106_EUROPE_PRMSL_210(8).thumb.jpg.aed55fffc74614f6f94a5da6dbe704d3.jpg

20th..?

137278774_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(29).thumb.jpg.696581f99daf2e2df1b2b32890025b80.jpg

Then by next weekend to day 10 signs now of high pressure ridging northeast over the uk bringing a quiter drier and colder spell for a time although signs are it won't last too long before milder westerly winds return but that's too far out for much confidence now. 

Edited by jordan smith
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

If someone offered me that day ten ECM chart I would happily take it .

Of course there are concerns with a chunk of the PV hanging around over northern Canada but we don’t know exactly where that ends up .

If it’s more towards Hudson’s Bay that would be fine . The main PV heading towards Siberia does leave a window of opportunity .

Given some of the horror charts coldies have been subjected to the day ten ECM indicates a pattern change .

Indeed the last few days the Ecm projections have been somewhat zonal all the way. Gefs had some lovely charts towards the end yesterday. I've not seen GFS runs today yet but yesterday did show changes. It's also good idea to keep an eye on the jet and depth and strength of heights and depth of lows plunging down to our east. I mark down 17th to 20th of this month for a pattern change. Still have high hopes that a cold back end winter. But before this the thorn being the blocking of the northeastern side of the Pacific. Its been a monster year in year out for some time. But time will tell. 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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As we are quite closely matching 2003 with progression of QBO I had a look at historical MJO data for what it was doing in Jan 03. We can detect low amplitude RMM phases 7 and 8 between 12 - 18.01. Then I plotted 500mb height anomaly between 20.01 and 15.02 and it gave a cold pattern for Eastern US and Europe. Perhaps we won't need such a high amplitude MJO in phases 7 and 8 for positive result

200301.phase.90days.gif

compday.v3R7zzMijS.gif

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ECM 00z clusters:

Day 10                                                             Day 12                                                           Day 15
image.thumb.png.ec3020032d2c56134b1e15a64281ed77.png        image.thumb.png.4963fb701f76ac89ea4a14a84c6bfe3d.png      ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011000_360.

Not very inspiring - most seems to have the high in the wrong place, with a continuation of something westerly based. Looks like too much energy piling across the Atlantic as usual.

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31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 00z clusters:

Day 10                                                             Day 12                                                           Day 15
image.thumb.png.ec3020032d2c56134b1e15a64281ed77.png        image.thumb.png.4963fb701f76ac89ea4a14a84c6bfe3d.png      ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011000_360.

Not very inspiring - most seems to have the high in the wrong place, with a continuation of something westerly based. Looks like too much energy piling across the Atlantic as usual.

I think you're pretty much on the money there - the message from ECM ensembles in the past few days is, expect a big high to appear somewhere not far from the UK, but they have no idea where - west, south-west, south, south-east or east are all possible. The most likely answer remains a high over the UK before a renewal of westerlies. But I have lower than usual confidence in these clusters at the moment, and at the very least, the uncertainly means we cannot rule out a colder pattern emerging.

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We are getting to that stage now, where we need to see things a changing. So I'm looking for at least cold pools to be gathering momentum in the right places! I still feel a more seasonal 2nd half of winter is on the cards. Latest thoughts from Jon hammond look positive... The IOD which appears to have scuppered winter so far by ramping up the jet, and bringing major heat to Australia is now on the wane and returning back to normal. Hopefully this would implie a weaker more meandering jet again.. We need a bif February now... A little more patience required.. All good things to those that wait.. 

gens-10-0-264.png

gens-11-0-264.png

gens-6-0-288.png

gens-13-0-300.png

gens-18-0-336.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We are getting to that stage now, where we need to see things a changing. So I'm looking for at least cold pools to be gathering momentum in the right places! I still feel a more seasonal 2nd half of winter is on the cards. Latest thoughts from Jon hammond look positive... The IOD which appears to have scuppered winter so far by ramping up the jet, and bringing major heat to Australia is now on the wane and returning back to normal. Hopefully this would implie a weaker more meandering jet again.. We need a bif February now... A little more patience required.. All good things to those that wait.. 

gens-10-0-264.png

gens-11-0-264.png

gens-6-0-288.png

gens-13-0-300.png

gens-18-0-336.png

Let's hope so. As you say, the IOD has returned to neutral now. All it's done is just put tropical forcing in a really long holding phase that has zero benefit to the UK - hence one of the reasons why the seasonal LRFs correctly went mild and +NAO. Hopefully late January and February can deliver the goods.

Edited by mb018538
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Still remains a dire outlook for cold lovers it really must be said, the jet stream is on that WSW'ly to ENE'ly trajectory so even any polar airmasses won't be that cold either. 

Not overly stormy either, the same old story of whether that secondary low will deepen enough as it gets picked up by the jet stream as it heads towards the UK is the only interest for me. Today's runs would suggest it will be more of a run of the mill type than anything particularly interesting which rather sums up this winter unfortunately. 

Still no sign of any blocking appearing on the charts and it's a long old way before any significant cold heads our way. 

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49 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think you're pretty much on the money there - the message from ECM ensembles in the past few days is, expect a big high to appear somewhere not far from the UK, but they have no idea where - west, south-west, south, south-east or east are all possible. The most likely answer remains a high over the UK before a renewal of westerlies. But I have lower than usual confidence in these clusters at the moment, and at the very least, the uncertainly means we cannot rule out a colder pattern emerging.

Thing is MWB what we really need is a high to the northwest or Northeast and none of the clusters are suggesting that in any meaningful way at all. We can but hope something somewhere will change the pattern but I think it will be Feb before anything remotely cold in the real sense of the word  shows up.

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now would be a good time to hear some of @Glacier Point views on where we are heading in the second half of the winter weather or not he thinks we might get benefits down the line from MJO wave if it hits phase 7 with decent amplitude 

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The GEFS 6Z have come up with this anomaly. I don't get it if they have MJO arriving in phase 7 in strong amplitude and looking at that phase composite for January its total opposite of what GEFS are indicating for Europe, its like Euro high vs Euro through. It couldn't be farther apart. I am preparing to bin this teleconective tool if GEFS turns out correct for sure

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0018400.png.3a3d823a92f51ee548d4cdea0a0b5565.png

ensplume_small.gif.5f6d66d1c38ee8f245abaa089cbe3bd3.gif

Capture.PNG

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13 minutes ago, jules216 said:

now would be a good time to hear some of @Glacier Point views on where we are heading in the second half of the winter weather or not he thinks we might get benefits down the line from MJO wave if it hits phase 7 with decent amplitude 

Today's RRM GFS plot has the MJO entering phase 7 at a very good amplitude but quickly fading into the COD. image.thumb.png.9de27b2eb4956997c89e3a33f1557f60.png

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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The GEFS 6Z have come up with this anomaly. I don't get it if they have MJO arriving in phase 7 in strong amplitude and looking at that phase composite for January its total opposite of what GEFS are indicating for Europe, its like Euro high vs Euro through. It couldn't be farther apart. I am preparing to bin this teleconective tool if GEFS turns out correct for sure

 

Jules, you cannot just use one teleconnection to forecast.

The PV might just be far to powerful and the MJO wave just cannot impact it enough to give us proper Northerly blocking.

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4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The GEFS 6Z have come up with this anomaly. I don't get it if they have MJO arriving in phase 7 in strong amplitude and looking at that phase composite for January its total opposite of what GEFS are indicating for Europe, its like Euro high vs Euro through. It couldn't be farther apart. I am preparing to bin this teleconective tool if GEFS turns out correct for sure

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0018400.png.3a3d823a92f51ee548d4cdea0a0b5565.png

ensplume_small.gif.5f6d66d1c38ee8f245abaa089cbe3bd3.gif

Capture.PNG

You have to bear in mind the composite is an average and additionally one has to bear in mind that there will be cases in which the jet stream is too strong to be broken much.

I can see how the composite would develop from that chart if the Atlantic high amplifies.

 

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10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

You have to bear in mind the composite is an average and additionally one has to bear in mind that there will be cases in which the jet stream is too strong to be broken much.

I can see how the composite would develop from that chart if the Atlantic high amplifies.

 

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

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12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

Which, jules, is why I don't trust forecasts based on analogues: the composites will never be identical. IMO, we will never find an analogue that matches last summer's IOD/European HP combination, and I doubt we'll find one comparable to the present situation, either; the presence, in January, of >20C T850s might even be unprecedented...??

Edited by General Cluster
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10 minutes ago, jules216 said:

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

You have to bear in mind that there is usually a 10-12 day lagged response to the phase of the MJO, so unlikely to see the effects on the upper patterns over N Atlantic as far as the GFS/GEFS goes for now. 

However, as the composites are a blend of different pressure/height patterns in response to phase 7 in different ENSO modes in a particular month with no reflection of the base state of the atmosphere, e.g very strong but increasingly stretched PV, we cannot expect the pattern change to exactly what is shown in the Jan or Feb composites.

Edited by Nick F
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