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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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GEFS still trucking nicely at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8. EC/EPS not been updated yet on the RMMs, but be interesting to see if it's still killing the MJO wave in 6 - which may explain the lack of amplification and appetite of building a ridge N over Northern Europe.

NCPE_phase_21m_small.thumb.gif.b549a00329c20e475c9da3689d3347b9.gif

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GEFS still trucking nicely at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8. EC/EPS not been updated yet on the RMMs, but be interesting to see if it's still killing the MJO wave in 6 - which may explain the lack of amplification and appetite of building a ridge N over Northern Europe.

NCPE_phase_21m_small.thumb.gif.b549a00329c20e475c9da3689d3347b9.gif

I think the ECM has updated, the dates the same as the GEFS anyway. It is not as good as the GEFS but significantly better than it was yesterday. Even a half way house between them would be decent.

image.thumb.png.436521f0add84e03b58534f184d2e1bc.png

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Starting with a possibly very mild Saturday:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I have high hopes for this run...When will it snow, and where?:yahoo:

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Posted (edited)

That looks a bit tasty for Scotland and the North 

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Griff

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gfs-0-216.png?12

A rather cold couple of days this time next week with snow down to low levels in the north

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Could that wee trough develop just enough to cause some transient wintriness eastwards, across much of the country? Uppers are somewhat marginal, though.🤔

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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Can we trust the GFS? Or another over amplified solution which gets watered down as per winter thus far

anim_jqt0.gif

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Big northerly incoming of the 12z 😎

4B8355CB-231F-4548-8228-9721097BC06F.png

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Big northerly incoming of the 12z 😎

4B8355CB-231F-4548-8228-9721097BC06F.png

Vastly different from the previous run

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Big northerly incoming of the 12z 😎

4B8355CB-231F-4548-8228-9721097BC06F.png

Think its gonna be a North Westerly.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Think its gonna be a North Westerly.

MJO response if GEFS correct?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think its gonna be a North Westerly.

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would. 

436E73DD-583D-476E-B0EB-7ECFFA75A32A.png

BFB56814-E178-40A7-919C-9B170A41C3C3.png

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would. 

 

 

Still w2ould be good though - would be or may still be a potent NW flow if it went out further.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would. 

436E73DD-583D-476E-B0EB-7ECFFA75A32A.png

BFB56814-E178-40A7-919C-9B170A41C3C3.png

Close but no cigar as they say, but at least we have ingredients now, we had nothing a day or so ago.😎

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still w2ould be good though - would be or may still be a potent NW flow if it went out further.

It's giving it a second try though.

gfseu-0-384.thumb.png.f90a1e7c3c464e68bda5f870ccb8face.pnggfseu-1-384.thumb.png.b7d98fe1cfabf3dee4c8feace7197742.png

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The cold air is getting in later on the GFS 12 run, not a good sign if this continues

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Close but no cigar alright! Not only do we have some 'nearly cold' prospects, there's a chance of some 'nearly unseasonably warm' chances too?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Does one look north:cold:? Or does one look south🔆? HTF would I know!:unknw:

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Posted (edited)

Quite a positive GFS run with snow opportunities ...esp north with altitude i would suggest.

Less promising news on the MJO front though according to marco petanga..

Edited by northwestsnow

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42 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Finally the wretched heights in Europe are disappearing,could be a big 2nd half of winter coming up,as predicted by some weather experts and some retired experts.😀

Even if the Bartlett/Euro gives way, it is by no means a given that it will lead to anything cold. If the Atlantic becomes more active, it will be storms that we should be more concerned about. 

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I think the ECM has updated, the dates the same as the GEFS anyway. It is not as good as the GEFS but significantly better than it was yesterday. Even a half way house between them would be decent.

image.thumb.png.436521f0add84e03b58534f184d2e1bc.png

Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday.

Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday.

Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.

Whilst in the tweets thread, a different view

 

 

Edited by Dorsetbred

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7 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Whilst in the tweets thread

 

 

I'm glad someone noticed 😂

I'm still too new to know the etiquette as somethings seem relevant to several threads, but I guess a tweet is a tweet. 

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