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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GEFS still trucking nicely at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8. EC/EPS not been updated yet on the RMMs, but be interesting to see if it's still killing the MJO wave in 6 - which may explain the lack of amplification and appetite of building a ridge N over Northern Europe.

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I think the ECM has updated, the dates the same as the GEFS anyway. It is not as good as the GEFS but significantly better than it was yesterday. Even a half way house between them would be decent.

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would. 

 

 

Still w2ould be good though - would be or may still be a potent NW flow if it went out further.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep didn’t go as I thought it would. 

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Close but no cigar as they say, but at least we have ingredients now, we had nothing a day or so ago.?

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still w2ould be good though - would be or may still be a potent NW flow if it went out further.

It's giving it a second try though.

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Close but no cigar alright! Not only do we have some 'nearly cold' prospects, there's a chance of some 'nearly unseasonably warm' chances too??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Does one look north:cold:? Or does one look south?? HTF would I know!:unknw:

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Quite a positive GFS run with snow opportunities ...esp north with altitude i would suggest.

Less promising news on the MJO front though according to marco petanga..

Edited by northwestsnow
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42 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Finally the wretched heights in Europe are disappearing,could be a big 2nd half of winter coming up,as predicted by some weather experts and some retired experts.?

Even if the Bartlett/Euro gives way, it is by no means a given that it will lead to anything cold. If the Atlantic becomes more active, it will be storms that we should be more concerned about. 

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I think the ECM has updated, the dates the same as the GEFS anyway. It is not as good as the GEFS but significantly better than it was yesterday. Even a half way house between them would be decent.

image.thumb.png.436521f0add84e03b58534f184d2e1bc.png

Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday.

Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.

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34 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Beat me to it. Yep, ECM has moved to GFS / GEFS from where it was yesterday.

Assuming convection survives through the Asia Maritimes (never a given), things could get very interesting down the line.

Whilst in the tweets thread, a different view

 

 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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7 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Whilst in the tweets thread

 

 

I'm glad someone noticed ?

I'm still too new to know the etiquette as somethings seem relevant to several threads, but I guess a tweet is a tweet. 

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