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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Sorry for being a little dull.....what does it show??

 

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Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being a little dull.....what does it show??

 

An amplified MJO heading into cold phases 7-8-1

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Just to add to the more upbeat mood in here :) 

Screenshot_20200108-213302.png

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About time one of these cold blue control runs came off. 

Screenshot_20200108-213654.png

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Always worth looking at jet stream profile forecasts for signs of possible pattern change. Gfs forecast showing a split flow with heights building inbetween around the 20th which ties in with 12z forecast 

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53 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just to add to the more upbeat mood in here 🙂

Screenshot_20200108-213302.png

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

Yes also curious, I know I'm like a stuck record, but a bit of an explanation would be really appreciated, thanks. 

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More amplification on the 18z up towards Scandi, can the high build and more importantly can we get an undercut? Lots of cold air to our NE waiting to pounce...

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfs-1-234.png

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Posted (edited)

 

2-3 weeks and we know more .....the charts are promising to see cold and easterlies - im still worried of that strong PV sign

image.thumb.png.124d077220c54de22b1fa71cc352e929.pngimage.thumb.png.b20fa9c3ec3be8614c4c8d40c15f6879.pngimage.thumb.png.8519026eae37908497b7f0d5c9da524a.png

Edited by Dennis

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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I'm puzzled with that remark, why will it do as you suggest please?

Because we see a transition from quite a zonal 6 - 10 chart (see attached) to a much drier 8 - 14 day chart which also gives more chance and indeed hope of a scandi high forming. Please note the words 'chance' and 'hope'. 

Screenshot_20200108-223903.png

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15 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes also curious, I know I'm like a stuck record, but a bit of an explanation would be really appreciated, thanks. 

Please see my reply to Mr Holmes. 

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Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!😟

gfseu-0-288.png

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!😟

gfseu-0-288.png

Important difference is the development of low heights over the med trough squeeze through scandi sending heights NW end result split jet flow..

Edited by damianslaw

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12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Blinking Euro hight won"t go and do one!😟

gfseu-0-288.png

It’s good the important thing is pressure has fallen to SE will not sink this ridge is pushing north not too dissimilar to 12z GFS really is going to town with pattern change to colder conditions day 10-16.

E7651737-93CC-4B81-9C10-FAFD01D939D5.thumb.png.6b250d5d323e6fe7f280a73a20fc3c36.png

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Latest fax chart for Monday shows a bit more movement in the Atlantic heading our way, let's hope this is a kick start to something more colder down the line🤞

20200108_224351.jpg

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P17 goes down the December 2010 route (when that section of PV dropped down across the UK) 1544977937_gensnh-17-1-384(1).thumb.png.6898cc966546d608644543f4b9057c01.png  certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities but GEFS seem keen on ridging and higher pressure from the Pacific side just the question if the higher pressure over our side can link up possibly splitting the tpv (think that is what GP was eluding to re bottom up split) gensnh-13-3-336.thumb.png.a9b19d743e19e29e7c6c0af578bb4da9.png  I cant seem to get the gif link working but if you run through the GEFS height anomalies you will see what I mean 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

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For P17 to verify, we need a conveyor belt of LPs to cross into Scandinavia/W Russia, a very cold pool to develop and then the HP to develop NW and advect the very cold pool SW to us.

Quite a sequence!

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5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

P17 goes down the December 2010 route (when that section of PV dropped down across the UK) 1544977937_gensnh-17-1-384(1).thumb.png.6898cc966546d608644543f4b9057c01.png  certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities but GEFS seem keen on ridging and higher pressure from the Pacific side just the question if the higher pressure over our side can link up possibly splitting the tpv (think that is what GP was eluding to re bottom up split) gensnh-13-3-336.thumb.png.a9b19d743e19e29e7c6c0af578bb4da9.png  I cant seem to get the gif link working but if you run through the GEFS height anomalies you will see what I mean 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

I see your P17 and I'll raise you P12 looks just about right for this winter so far.

gensnh-12-1-384.png

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GFS keeps dishing out the eye candy and not in an outrageous timeframe lows diving southeast into Europe the catalyst, weak heights to north supporting this, also see this on ECM

2C6CCF29-1D17-4ED7-A78A-BC397FA31269.thumb.png.f15580fe29d93474310e7a3a1263cd0f.png952E8EC6-4654-4CDB-804C-8D91947CF6AE.thumb.png.9a4a78141b901774c0985b3f73576967.png

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Support for mid latitude block certainly growing following unsettled and stormy polar maritime, very intense HP here centred over N U.K. 1050mb! 18z GEFS had plenty in there bringing cold and dry conditions. I don’t think this suite is going to be an exception.

AAC9D1CB-465D-46C3-87AB-9021AB5A3A03.thumb.png.08acaef9b7e60abdca3e9d13e7c8240d.png

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No suprise to see EC looking very  different to GFS by day 10..

image.thumb.png.e9d070bac9fbbb30e5a37e490e522bbd.png

 

 

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