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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That was my thought too General. There is no low pressure in the Med so the ridge would more than likely just collapse South East.

Or it could be the starting point to something more interesting?

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3 hours ago, legritter said:

Hi gang   ,i am more confident today that things are gradually  very slowly becoming more Wintry for the UK .a couple of days ago i did say that there was a possible that Atlantic lows would move on a more southerly track and that i was hoping we would see also lows moving south east .not rocket science i must admit , but I'm sure something to get our attention and may be cheer us all up .Gfs is sniffing out the possibility of high pressure to our n east in extended outlook, and Ecm showing an angry North Atlantic attack, but positioning of lows past 6 days will be very critical. Exeter yesterday hints at a cooling down ,wo der what today will bring. Some newsworthy weather on its way and not all mild mush .and its only jan 8th  , take care gang cheers .

I don't see it as anything other than a waking up of the jet stream with Atlantic fronts bringing wind and rain I'm afraid. A reset zonal pattern all the way with temps hovering around average, so yes - a cooling down of sorts but that's the best on offer. 

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Posted (edited)

if the 7 shows up then its from now between 2-3 weeks late January.... hope it for all winterfans  image.thumb.png.3f2b3321616bd17ec524c30819e15562.pngimage.thumb.png.2e32a424a35cf617e38684213d2b334d.png

Edited by Dennis

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

😍

AB0F057B-769B-4014-A6CA-7988CF7EC912.png

256FDEF9-2003-4C6E-BFE6-A78EC8CC54C2.png

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What could possibly go wrong 🤷🏻‍♂️ ...I’ll get my sledge ....

Merely for interest purposes only especially as its for 9 days away but the Nasa Geos5 model earlier this morning showed a rather similar scenario albeit with this low developing into a very intense feature bringing more of a wind threat but snow too. 

423825923_EUROPE_PRMSL_222(4).thumb.jpg.dd9ccddbaa64fae8b56ed91849c7c9f0.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_SNOW_222.thumb.jpg.4c4d24107791dcf8880efd93c3a8e466.jpg

1858893297_EUROPE_PRMSL_228(6).thumb.jpg.55a19c413bbc09ec3b44a90b7d5495dd.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_SNOW_228.thumb.jpg.acd94427e78273c355c090e479e21773.jpg

167877694_EUROPE_PRMSL_234(10).thumb.jpg.cfca51792939374a17317bb037315ce5.jpg

Westerly or southwesterly winds will likely be in control at this stage with low pressure to the west so this scenario very unlikely to happen. 

Edited by jordan smith

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I think the gfs past t216 is going off on one. Very different from previous runs.

9D8B9442-CD72-495E-9342-D84F95837108.png

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Posted (edited)

Nasty looking storm for Ireland and Scotland at the back end of next week:

gfs-0-198.png?12

ECM had it as a near miss to the north this morning, so will be interesting to see what this evening brings.

...and another a couple of days later:

gfs-0-240.png?12

 

 

Edited by Yarmy

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Now this really is starting to look more interesting: the possibility of something more wintry, from the NE, and some serious heat building, away to the SE...?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And to think that I was told yesterday that the models should not be taken seriously for the next three weeks, and was about to start paining the living room tomorrow, and smoking my pipe awaiting for better times to come, but was this fake news I'm now asking myself. So I don't know what to do, I can still smoke the old pipe but should I go back to watching the models 24/7 and s🙄d the living room, just in case they are actually onto something?😃

Anyway lets see what the ECM turns up.

Edited by snowray

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spacer.pngGFS 12z

 

spacer.pngUKMO 12z

spacer.png

Sunday morning is not without interest for some up North with elevation . Good uppers according to GFS 12z at t96

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26 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngGFS 12z

 

spacer.pngUKMO 12z

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Sunday morning is not without interest for some up North with elevation . Good uppers according to GFS 12z at t96

Not much in the way of precipitation though unfortunately. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not much in the way of precipitation though unfortunately. 

IF gfs is to be believed there is plenty for favoured spots.  It will change of course but..........👍

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BEBBE5B3-4446-4143-B7B6-18695AFDA934.png

Edited by That ECM

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Yes, hopefully today is the start of a more positive outlook with a possible major pattern change later in the month, but also if the current trend for the jet to move further south continues, then even more doors will be opened to cold and sooner than some seem to think.

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm feeling more optimistic today than I have for a long time with regards to weather prospects. 

We're finally seeing the jet move a tad further S over the next 5-7 days and that is pretty essential if we're to start lowering heights somewhat over Europe.

I'm not saying cold nirvana is on the way, far from it, but later Jan prospects MAY be picking up.

Yes - slow burner this - it is gonna be into February but that was always the case.

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Posted (edited)

This is a very intense Polar Vortex we’re seeing atm!

The PV visiting the UK with some very disturbed times ahead, certainly the risk of some severe windstorms.
 

B603A98E-4654-4C02-9936-BD98C494045E.jpeg

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Edited by DisruptiveGust

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

gens_panel_dxn6.png

 

11 is the magic number.😄

Quite a few of those runs are keen on the split scenario developing. Seasons rolling on..

Edited by Dorsetbred

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As others have pointed out so far today, tentative signs of a pattern change moving forward... Slowly but surely I feel a big change come the end of the month!! And it's nice to finally see some sub zeroe 850s at times from the ECM.... Onwards and upwards. 

12_168_thickuk.png

12_216_thickuk.png

12_240_thickuk.png

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

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