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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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gfs-0-66.png?6
A low pressure crossing the country was picked up on the 1st, of course people talking about it in this thread where mocked but alas its gonna happen (not as originally forecast but it never was 10 days away) 

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Surprised by MetOffice wind warning for Thursday for my area (Notts) - predicted winds for my area (Notts) even on their own website are higher today than Thursday. 

Now if the warning was for Monday night/Tuesday early hours I could understand it but guess that is too far out at the moment.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Surprised by MetOffice wind warning for Thursday for my area (Notts) - predicted winds for my area (Notts) even on their own website are higher today than Thursday. 

Now if the warning was for Monday night/Tuesday early hours I could understand it but guess that is too far out at the moment.

Presumably because they have the developing frontal wave as quite an intense feature as it tracks north east

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ffca033a161944561c0aa1dbfc53daa1.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.4a42cd9d1c86073c52420f0783aaea48.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.d324c7b4310298d17954c363d924f671.gif

Edited by knocker

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In the shorter term there could be a few Wintry surprises for those in parts of the North at elevation on Thursday according to Euro4  ( and parts of Ireland too )

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1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

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In the shorter term there could be a few Wintry surprises for those in parts of the North at elevation on Thursday according to Euro4  ( and parts of Ireland too )

Unfortunately, ever since the Euro 4 precipitation graphics changed, they are overdoing the wintry precipitation. You can easily see it in the above images as it shows snow falling even over the sea despite the not particularly cold uppers. I don't know why they had to mess it up as up to last winter i found it quite reliable regarding the type of precipitation. 

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20 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

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In the shorter term there could be a few Wintry surprises for those in parts of the North at elevation on Thursday according to Euro4  ( and parts of Ireland too )

That would be lovely, but instinctively, it seems overstated for here in East Lothian at least. I'll believe it when I see it.

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20 minutes ago, karyo said:

Unfortunately, ever since the Euro 4 precipitation graphics changed, they are overdoing the wintry precipitation. You can easily see it in the above images as it shows snow falling even over the sea despite the not particularly cold uppers. I don't know why they had to mess it up as up to last winter i found it quite reliable regarding the type of precipitation. 

This is more like it, Arpege 06z, may be over doing the snow accumulations there a bit though.

arpegeuk-42-45-0.png

arpegeuk-42-53-0.png

arpegeuk-45-57-0.png

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39 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, what do we have here, then; an intense anticyclone in entirely the wrong place?:shok: Though one can't rule out a few stonkers within the ensembles. Obviously!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, lest we forget, T+384 weather charts are only a little more reliable than the Trump Administration's mail service!:oops:

Certainly not unusual for mid Jan but wow - 1048mb!! At this stage - just nice to look at. Until then though, looks like a lot of water to pass under the bridge (or over it depending on rainfall intensity...)

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29 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

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In the shorter term there could be a few Wintry surprises for those in parts of the North at elevation on Thursday according to Euro4  ( and parts of Ireland too )

It would need to be at elevation according to the 06 ecm. Dew points too high north of the front

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-dew2m_f-8574800.thumb.png.a9f0d19cc8b92b18c1113acc4512a46c.png

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Looking like that @Dennis. Late January is the next potential opportunity. 

I've also got a horrible feeling that we're going to see another slow trickle down final warming like last year and have a terrible -NAO late spring spring and summer again. That's a long way in the distance, but will probably be here before we know it.

Well I must say last Summer wasn't too bad at all especially July, now that was very dry. 

Doesn't a -NAO mean low to the south and high to north though? if so it managed to bring us a reasonable Summer here in South Wales and across southern England but I'm sure the high was close to the south and lows were further north so I assumed that meant a +NAO

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Certainly not unusual for mid Jan but wow - 1048mb!! At this stage - just nice to look at. Until then though, looks like a lot of water to pass under the bridge (or over it depending on rainfall intensity...)

i must say there is some support for this uk heights,

and that's one of the strongest blocks i've seen for sometime if this is correct its a game changer.

get that cold plunge running round the back then heading towards the alps and if we get in far enough west then this could end up as a fairly robust homegrown northern block most likely eventually sitting round scandinavia possibly leading to the coldest part of this winter.

of coarse we still have the nightmare of the northeastern pacific ridge.

but with uk or scandi type block this wouldn't be such an issue.

maybe as the qbo increases into its easterly phase then this could throw up more possibilities.

in the meantime it reminds me of a 1998 zonal  february pattern of that year.

mild wet windy almost spring like down here.

but at least the models in fi will keep us checking from behind the sofa.

the most reliable charts shown most of the time seem to be the noaa charts john holmes posts.

but at the moment its ZONAL, vortex is slowly declining in strength but still pretty robust.

got a feeling maybe winter could be a back end club banger.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Unfortunately, it now looks like we will be totally reliant on the PV waning towards Winter's end for any chance of cold as the tropical influence from the MJO does not look like helping at all.

Latest forecasts have the MJO declining back into the COD before reaching the favorable 7-8-1 zones. Given that the IOD has gone, I don't know what other influence has caused this..

image.thumb.png.e361b1b3a56ac93d78a819777e8b6def.png  

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20 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Well I must say last Summer wasn't too bad at all especially July, now that was very dry. 

Doesn't a -NAO mean low to the south and high to north though? if so it managed to bring us a reasonable Summer here in South Wales and across southern England but I'm sure the high was close to the south and lows were further north so I assumed that meant a +NAO

Well...May was terrible, and the first half of June was awful too....with some of the strongest Greenland blocking ever recorded for that time of the year:

image.thumb.png.0f3ce586123ccac4ee054e0da681d436.png
 

WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV

Information on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low.

 
The NAO indexes for May/June/July/August 2019 were -2.62, -1.09, -1.43, -1.17, which is one of the worst data sets for summer recorded. 

As you correctly say - it wasn't all bad, and July wasn't a total write off. A -ve NAO doesn't mean every day will be a washout or even cold, it just massively increases the likelihood due to pressure distribution under that set up.

All very localised of course, Wales was much drier than the rest of the UK in May (55% vs 93%) & July (59% vs 114%) in 2019. 
 

uk_temp_rain_sun_anon_graph.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Anomaly graphs showing the monthly variation of temperature, rainfall and sunshine for the selected year

 

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My latest outlook doesn’t exactly bear very well for the UK, until perhaps mid-late February:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/07/europe-on-the-long-term-7th-january/

A little snippet about the current GWO forecast, more details in the outlook.

“The GWO is currently in Phase 8-1, and is forecast to proceed through the lower phases of GLAAM orbit over the middle two weeks of January. This is likely to keep the current +AO/+NAO phase in a holding pattern, waiting for the next GWO cycle through the positive phases. The past cycle has been so far inadequate in getting the momentum deposits in the right areas for a less zonal outlook. Positive cycle is expected in late January/early February

Frictional torque is currently negative, showing the ability for a negative orbit for the GWO, with the Mountain torque expected to follow“
 

ACCF7ED1-88E1-4323-8FBF-42F2398F80FE.thumb.jpeg.db3b887799242abc3cd65df50b8f9e28.jpeg

 

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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately, it now looks like we will be totally reliant on the PV waning towards Winter's end for any chance of cold as the tropical influence from the MJO does not look like helping at all.

Latest forecasts have the MJO declining back into the COD before reaching the favorable 7-8-1 zones. Given that the IOD has gone, I don't know what other influence has caused this..

image.thumb.png.e361b1b3a56ac93d78a819777e8b6def.png  

Can't link from my phone but there is a forecast trade burst in the central/east Pacific which is probably why the MJO signal dies back to the center.

We are forecast a convective burst in the West Pacific though which may result in a new MJO wave crossing the higher phases over the second half of January.

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15 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

My latest outlook doesn’t exactly bear very well for the UK, until perhaps mid-late February:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/07/europe-on-the-long-term-7th-january/

A little snippet about the current GWO forecast, more details in the outlook.

“The GWO is currently in Phase 8-1, and is forecast to proceed through the lower phases of GLAAM orbit over the middle two weeks of January. This is likely to keep the current +AO/+NAO phase in a holding pattern, waiting for the next GWO cycle through the positive phases. The past cycle has been so far inadequate in getting the momentum deposits in the right areas for a less zonal outlook. Positive cycle is expected in late January/early February

Frictional torque is currently negative, showing the ability for a negative orbit for the GWO, with the Mountain torque expected to follow“
 

ACCF7ED1-88E1-4323-8FBF-42F2398F80FE.thumb.jpeg.db3b887799242abc3cd65df50b8f9e28.jpeg

 

@Snowy Hibbo, in your last European Outlook from 16th December you have quoted the EPS 46 day model, which showed this in its outlook for 11-16th January(picture 1), reality is picture 2 - latest GEFS, so even the original window of opportunity for Europe has shrunk in to a non event almost universally 🙂

Capture.PNG

gfs-ens_z500aMean_eu_5.png

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1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

i must say there is some support for this uk heights,

and that's one of the strongest blocks i've seen for sometime if this is correct its a game changer.

get that cold plunge running round the back then heading towards the alps and if we get in far enough west then this could end up as a fairly robust homegrown northern block most likely eventually sitting round scandinavia possibly leading to the coldest part of this winter.

of coarse we still have the nightmare of the northeastern pacific ridge.

but with uk or scandi type block this wouldn't be such an issue.

maybe as the qbo increases into its easterly phase then this could throw up more possibilities.

in the meantime it reminds me of a 1998 zonal  february pattern of that year.

mild wet windy almost spring like down here.

but at least the models in fi will keep us checking from behind the sofa.

the most reliable charts shown most of the time seem to be the noaa charts john holmes posts.

but at the moment its ZONAL, vortex is slowly declining in strength but still pretty robust.

got a feeling maybe winter could be a back end club banger.

Indeed, we just need some more consistent support. Even if a block is not as strong as that, it would do. Funny you should mention 1998, around the same time, January 1998 experienced a cold block.

Looking back over the years, certainly between the mid 1990s and 2008, the final third of January was a blocky time of year, with slight variations exactly on where high pressure set up. Even the most Atlantic of winters like 2000 and 2007 featured such.

archives-1997-1-27-12-0.png archives-1998-1-24-0-0.png archives-2000-1-16-12-0.png archives-2005-1-23-12-0.png archives-2006-1-25-12-0.png archives-2007-1-27-12-0.png

Fingers crossed for further runs showing high pressure establishment. Anything to break the current mundanity.

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5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Looking like that @Dennis. Late January is the next potential opportunity. 

I've also got a horrible feeling that we're going to see another slow trickle down final warming like last year and have a terrible -NAO late spring spring and summer again. That's a long way in the distance, but will probably be here before we know it.

image.thumb.png.007c1289f7ece7125b75d41ce8e724e3.png

yes @mb018538 its a terrible start to a winter setup

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image.thumb.png.4bc40d6a6b75ba6c16f7a4ece4985953.pngstormseason is going to be open it looks

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14 minutes ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.4bc40d6a6b75ba6c16f7a4ece4985953.pngstormseason is going to be open it looks

Yes, perpetual Autumn continues

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Well...May was terrible, and the first half of June was awful too....with some of the strongest Greenland blocking ever recorded for that time of the year:

image.thumb.png.0f3ce586123ccac4ee054e0da681d436.png
 

WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV

Information on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low.

 
The NAO indexes for May/June/July/August 2019 were -2.62, -1.09, -1.43, -1.17, which is one of the worst data sets for summer recorded. 

As you correctly say - it wasn't all bad, and July wasn't a total write off. A -ve NAO doesn't mean every day will be a washout or even cold, it just massively increases the likelihood due to pressure distribution under that set up.

All very localised of course, Wales was much drier than the rest of the UK in May (55% vs 93%) & July (59% vs 114%) in 2019. 
 

uk_temp_rain_sun_anon_graph.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Anomaly graphs showing the monthly variation of temperature, rainfall and sunshine for the selected year

 

Well, regardless of those NAO data sets, as the link you've shown to the Met Office website, July and August were comfortably above average including incredible hot spells in both months. So whatever was going on in Greenland, it didn't really impact on the ground - for Southern England anyway

Anyway, never mind summer 2019, this is the winter thread. And, how things are turning out, I use the word 'winter' in the loosest possible sense of the word as we're looking at autumn conditions for the foreseeable. Really poor winter. Yet again. Thanks to the bloated Azores High ridging into Europe - an increasing trend over the last 30 years

image.thumb.png.d138eb8f3d38b8419539a2bd29c11053.png

Utterly awful...

image.thumb.png.401ff3451246f3febfb64e607e1d73d5.png

Edited by LRD

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some ideas to a change

 

image.thumb.png.dce5cec7b78315067744df3b60539b97.png

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