Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

By that theory in 10 years time it won't have time to get itself together at all before it starts it's final warming. 

We can all dream ey

sorry I meant the weather patterns in general won’t last forever and will change but it could be 2 or 10 years before they change ( if they do at all )

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Usually with the upper westerlies not downwelling early in the season i would have thought and the trop just being allowed to do its own thing, i don't think we had an SSW in 2010-11 and think we didn't get one until Feb 8th in 2009-10 and we had had blocking almost 2 months before then lasting a whole month.

Yes in 2009-2010 I think it was el nino that was the main factor for the cold, dont always need a SSW. 

[snowray]

Just noticed some somewhat better ens runs, not seen anything much of interest in the last couple of days so a bit of an improvement there. I'll go for Pb 14 please.

[phil nw.]

A mid-Winter mobile Atlantic pattern in all it's glory--- UK charts at t72hrs

A deeply cold vortex feeding a strong jet -a breeding ground for low after low running across the Atlantic.Our resident Azores high ridging extending heights towards mainland Europe.Thus keeping the UK in a west or south westerly flow with just brief flirtations of polar maritime air. 

Nothing much to add to what others have just to say that  i doubt we could get a much more positive nao/ao pattern than currently modeled over the next couple of weeks.

I can appreciate this is thoroughly frustrating period of model outputs for cold and snow lovers as January ticks away.

 

 

[snowray]

Although not looking all that mild after this week, Ens for central England and the Scottish Borders there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes in 2009-2010 I think it was el nino that was the main factor for the cold, dont always need a SSW. 

Yes, ideally we want to see a moderate (not strong) ENSO event next year and further N in the Pacific we need to see the anomalous warmth toned down. 

I've noticed when ENSO is near neutral we get stuck in the doldrums of repeated mid latitude HP (Summer 2018 being a case in point).

[snow mad]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My mate said there was gonna be snow in Devon, said there was a yellow warning, i told him there definitely will not and there probably wont be snow anywhere habitable throughout January, cant find out where he got that info from, first port of call was the express but couldn't find anything there.

Believe The Sun online did a bit about uk being buried soon.

[Don]

56 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, ideally we want to see a moderate (not strong) ENSO event next year and further N in the Pacific we need to see the anomalous warmth toned down. 

I've noticed when ENSO is near neutral we get stuck in the doldrums of repeated mid latitude HP (Summer 2018 being a case in point).

Ideally a Modoki (central based) El Niño like winter 2009/10 featured.  That anomalous warmth in the North Pacific does appear to have waned recently, albeit still warm?

Edited January 7, 2020 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Ideally a Modoki (central based) El Niño like winter 2009/10 featured.  That anomalous warmth in the North Pacific does appear to have waned recently, albeit still warm?

I think a Modoki would be ideal, yes. 

As for the N Pacific warmth, I think the damage was already done earlier on with regards to feedback. 

[Daniel*]

Models firming up on rather cold Pm air flow taking hold this weekend for north U.K, looks like it will sustain will bring frequent wintry showers even to lower levels to Scotland, Ireland and N England. GFS 00z displaces the vortex more towards Eurasia and this helps with cold air availability. All this talk of winter being over but wintry interest right in front of your eyes perhaps not nationwide and quite normal for January but it is a start to winter for some! 

[Daniel*]

Much less of a thermal gradient compared to pub run 

Better N Atlantic profile resulting in ridge not being blasted away so effortlessly picking up an increasingly cool continental flow for a time.

The westerlies blast through but it is not all doom and gloom, notice Alaska ridge feeding up WAA voila Arctic high splitting the vortex, also block over Scandi gravitating, this is a hemispheric pattern to a major perturbation to vortex. This is certainly something we want to see more of.

[nick sussex]

Interesting GEM op run which is almost a carbon copy of GEFS ensemble 10 with the upstream pattern give or take a day .

In terms of the GFS op that does try and dig some energy south to the west of the UK at day ten but can’t get the ridge sufficiently north ahead of that .

Will be interesting to see what the ECM does .

Edited January 7, 2020 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting GEM op run which is almost a carbon copy of GEFS ensemble 10 with the upstream pattern give or take a day .

In terms of the GFS op that does try and dig some energy south to the west of the UK at day ten but can’t get the ridge sufficiently north ahead of that .

Will be interesting to see what the ECM does .

That’s the next window nick though it does seem likely to be one of those ones you see in a medieval castle rather than the type on grand designs .......

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting GEM op run which is almost a carbon copy of GEFS ensemble 10 with the upstream pattern give or take a day .

In terms of the GFS op that does try and dig some energy south to the west of the UK at day ten but can’t get the ridge sufficiently north ahead of that .

Will be interesting to see what the ECM does .

Here's the Ecm day 10.

Another view of it Gem out on its own with the high cell to the north. 

Upper air temperatures between 8-10 days.. 

Rain/snow.. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s the next window nick though it does seem likely to be one of those ones you see in a medieval castle rather than the type on grand designs .......

Yes, to be honest i cannot see one of those priceless stained glass ones in the best churches until February.

[mb018538]

Not much change this morning....

Staying above average for the next 10 days with plenty of wind and rain - especially in the NW of England, W Wales and W/NW Scotland, with some eye-watering totals (100-200mm) possible:



Drier the further S/E you head, which is fairly typical of the +NAO pattern we are in. GEM and ECM perhaps showing a break by day 10:

 

[Man With Beard]

Away from the cold hunt... It might be interesting to monitor Dublin's temperature today. Several models show an impressive fohen effect, and the AROME even gets it up to the 18/19C category by 1pm. No idea what the January record is there? 

14Cs also looking likely for favoured parts of the north, too. 

[Jordan S]

The system for tomorrow night Thursday is still varying a little in intensity and exact positioning especially as the Gem really deepens it but i feel its overdoing this system. 

I think that the Icon has the best handle on this low and although the track is similar the intensity is much less. 

On the northern edge of this low there's a possibility of some mostly hill snow this track would take this risk across northern England, perhaps into southern Scotland later tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Outbreaks of quite heavy rain likely to develop through tomorrow evening into the night for central, southern and western areas giving 10-20mm fairly widely, strong winds perhaps gales in exposure accompanying the rain across England and Wales.

Looking a little ahead to the weekend it's looking very unsettled particularly for Scotland with the likelihood of further persistent rainfall for Western Scotland for much of Friday night into Saturday this extending into northern England and northern Ireland at times accompanied by some very strong winds in these areas perhaps gusting 60-70mph in a few places, the weather front responsible eventually begins to make its way southeastwards across more of the UK this perhaps forming a wave depression which may delay the clearance of the rain and enhance wind gusts for a time during Saturday for many especially across the pennines behind this for Sunday wintry showers likely for Scotland. 

A look at the jet stream for this weekend.. 

Rainfall and synoptic pressure pattern..

Wind gusts

Early next week looks very unsettled for the uk.. 

Jetstream for Monday.. 

A powerful jetstream just to the east of newfoundland and moving into the north Atlantic will aid in rapid cyclogeneses such as with this low for Monday..

bringing  potentially a stormy spell to all early next week along with more persistent rain but as its a very mobile pattern there will be drier and brighter days especially for central and southern areas.

Towards day 10 If we put the Ecmwf, Gem and Gfs average output together..

Likely to remain mostly mild and unsettled. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by jordan smith

[Dennis]

Its a trend now  it takes a few weeks to see any pattern change -maybe late Jan 

 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Its a trend now  it takes a few weeks to see any pattern change -maybe late Jan 

 

Looking like that @Dennis. Late January is the next potential opportunity. 

I've also got a horrible feeling that we're going to see another slow trickle down final warming like last year and have a terrible -NAO late spring spring and summer again. That's a long way in the distance, but will probably be here before we know it.

[snowblizzard]

11 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Its a trend now  it takes a few weeks to see any pattern change -maybe late Jan 

 

Alas, more than a trend I think!

It looks like a long term locked-in pattern with proper mid latitude cold a rarity throughout the Northern hemisphere.

But, I guess miracles do occasionally happen. 

[northwestsnow]

27 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Alas, more than a trend I think!

It looks like a long term locked-in pattern with proper mid latitude cold a rarity throughout the Northern hemisphere.

But, I guess miracles do occasionally happen. 

The pattern is of course locked in, and has been since early Dec.

While the profile remains like this to the North west it will be a long road to cold.

[snowray]

I'm starting to give up on the Scandi high idea for now, but surely there is a chance of a decent northerly, cold enough for snow too at times even this week.

[snowray]

Scottish ski resorts getting a dumping.

[frosty ground]

A low pressure crossing the country was picked up on the 1st, of course people talking about it in this thread where mocked but alas its gonna happen (not as originally forecast but it never was 10 days away)