Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, we have been put on alert for next week to save as much snow as possible. To warm above the inversion to operate snow cannon feed. Poor outlook for snow lovers across much of Eouroland.

C

might be a blessing for me to be living in the inversion hot spot in Europe, last week for example one day managed only -8C Tmax, at least the lakes will freeze properly here so we can go out playing ice hockey if poor snow in mountains.sorry for of topic comments 

Capture.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The QBO is in the easterly descending phase, and all looks fairly normal:

qbo_plot.png?v=20200106

Source: 

ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV

Scientific and technical content intended for our scientific colleagues

 

 

The usual single figure quoted for the QBO index is the zonal mean at 30hPa. That number peaked quite high in May/June, but not excessively or unusually so. As others have alluded to, I suspect the Pacific profile and the +IOD are the more likely culprits for the lack of any meaningful amplification so far this winter.

 

So maybe a change in our luck by late February/March then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, we have been put on alert for next week to save as much snow as possible. To warm above the inversion to operate snow cannon feed. Poor outlook for snow lovers across much of Eouroland.

C

Can’t remember a year with such a poor outlook for snow in the Alps in mid winter! Glad I got my skiing in at Christmas this year! Even some Scandinavia and the Eastern European resorts will be struggling at this rate! 

839D148E-F928-44C6-B72D-2B3F469EDAFC.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

We must be closing in on the +5C uppers' minimum extent already?:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Oh dear, that's half of winter over!:help:

Edited by General Cluster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Morning. 🙂

The outputs haven't got much to offer in terms of snow for most apart from some wintry showers for parts of western Scotland on Wednesday and the system on Wednesday night/Thursday which as well as bringing alot of rainfall for southern parts of England as I mentioned yesterday this system could bring some snow to hills of Northern England and perhaps northwales its a low risk atm and this depends on the development and track of the low ofcourse. :oldgood:

Here's the Ecm.. 👇

overview_20200106_00_075.thumb.jpg.6585fa31fb1fb9d50884d0d35bf86df6.jpg

overview_20200106_00_078.thumb.jpg.34ae2a670e4a122f2208c4f53acd4a9e.jpg

Gfs.. 👇

overview_20200106_06_072.thumb.jpg.d9a1fe7fd2f6306707bada568ff1f3bf.jpg

Arpege.. 👇

06_69_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.5a4894edd330ec3d92ef3a7fd0c67d0b.png

06_71_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.67afd4d72eb4f372f3690bc62e5aed9f.png

Icon.. 👇

2029127889_06_75_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.de4186630bd68a5637604dda770f2300.png

06_78_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.563782b5414be8787510c35641541fcc.png

Western Scotland looking very wet tomorrow with heavy and persistent rainfall accompanied by very strong perhaps damaging gusts of wind, I have already discussed the wind gusts so no need to repeat the detail on that atm. As much as 40-60mm of rain is likely quite widely there with possibly as much as around 80mm over hills. 

06_27_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.380ca103da75bc5848eae9c4320dbc8a.png

1480986406_06_33_ukpreciptype(3).thumb.png.71763c87f6502eb5799374940ba3a660.png

Edited by jordan smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unusual to see 100% agreement on ECM clusters at day 10-15:

image.thumb.png.61c1d15e599b19d0dc4100985f66ba0c.png           image.thumb.png.659179489bc4b3ba24dff422826d8167.png

Bullish in building an anticyclone in our vicinity between day 10-15.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Unusual to see 100% agreement on ECM clusters at day 10-15:

image.thumb.png.61c1d15e599b19d0dc4100985f66ba0c.png           image.thumb.png.659179489bc4b3ba24dff422826d8167.png

Bullish in building an anticyclone in our vicinity between day 10-15.

Indeed, and that takes out to the 21st January, so we can 100% write of January for any cold at all.

 Just February left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed, and that takes out to the 21st January, so we can 100% write of January for any cold at all.

 Just February left.

Got more chance of Liverpool slipping up than getting a decent cold spell in January! 😳
Even a pattern change in the last third could take a while to deliver cold temperatures to Europe before any snowfall!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t remember a year with such a poor outlook for snow in the Alps in mid winter! Glad I got my skiing in at Christmas this year! Even some Scandinavia and the Eastern European resorts will be struggling at this rate! 

839D148E-F928-44C6-B72D-2B3F469EDAFC.png

we are struggling hanging on to precious snow cover and transient snowfall from a day long northerlies like on Sunday which brought 5-15cm to northern regions,managed to scrape 4cm myself and then rushed to get some skiing done,now hoping for inversion cold to keep some form of winter going,but its not a great outlook

20200105_124250.jpg

20200105_081643.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Unusual to see 100% agreement on ECM clusters at day 10-15:

image.thumb.png.61c1d15e599b19d0dc4100985f66ba0c.png           image.thumb.png.659179489bc4b3ba24dff422826d8167.png

Bullish in building an anticyclone in our vicinity between day 10-15.

Actually just for once I'm happy to bin the clusters this morning. I checked the individual ensembles and they in no way reflect the overall picture - it's pretty much as before, a split between sceuro highs and bartlett highs, with a strong chance of surface cold for SE parts, but little in the way of snow potential.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Unusual to see 100% agreement on ECM clusters at day 10-15:

image.thumb.png.61c1d15e599b19d0dc4100985f66ba0c.png           image.thumb.png.659179489bc4b3ba24dff422826d8167.png

Bullish in building an anticyclone in our vicinity between day 10-15.

Pretty sure someone said before on here ( might of been @bluearmy) that when there’s only one cluster don’t believe em . But then again I might be talking 💩. Probably the lack of wintry weather we’ve had , driving me crazy 😝 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Actually just for once I'm happy to bin the clusters this morning. I checked the individual ensembles and they in no way reflect the overall picture - it's pretty much as before, a split between sceuro highs and bartlett highs, with a strong chance of surface cold for SE parts, but little in the way of snow potential.

we need some trigger low pressure to bring something interesting re.cold weather, otherwise we are in no mans land, doesn't matter to have higher heights in Scandinavia if they spread across whole of Europe. For next 15 days there is very little prospect of snowfall for most of Europe let alone UK, our local mean T850hPa only drops below zero for the last day of EPS outlook, that sums up January very well

Capture.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Pretty sure someone said before on here ( might of been @bluearmy) that when there’s only one cluster don’t believe em . But then again I might be talking 💩. Probably the lack of wintry weather we’ve had , driving me crazy 😝 

was me …. looking through the ouput, it might be a fair call between day 8 and day 13 but approaching day 15 it doesn't add up as the mean ridge is sourced from the azores whilst the single cluster shows an upper ridge centered n Denmark supported from the south

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Unusual to see 100% agreement on ECM clusters at day 10-15:

image.thumb.png.61c1d15e599b19d0dc4100985f66ba0c.png           image.thumb.png.659179489bc4b3ba24dff422826d8167.png

Bullish in building an anticyclone in our vicinity between day 10-15.

Please would you explain what that means if it is favourable please for wintry conditions thank you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

69-574UK.GIF?06-12

 

Well at least it's something! *sigh*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Please would you explain what that means if it is favourable please for wintry conditions thank you

My first post as a newbie, but I feel I’ve learned enough that I can say the clusters are not favourable for wintry conditions for UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, DavidS said:

My first post as a newbie, but I feel I’ve learned enough that I can say the clusters are not favourable for wintry conditions for UK.

Hideous and typical. And they will no doubt verify 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In fairness its usually the hope that is the enemy on here. The models have responded by removing any hope this season 🤣

Looking through the models today still no sign of anything wintry for most of us. From looking through the 06 GEFS more chance of a Spanish plume than deep cold. It wouldn't take much to pull up some real warmth from the south with this set up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Please would you explain what that means if it is favourable please for wintry conditions thank you

They are best ignored as I suspect there is too much spread for any meaningful output and this is the default option That is my best guess but you certainly shouldn't attempt to read anything into it vis UK weather. Wait for an update is probably the best advice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DavidS said:

My first post as a newbie, but I feel I’ve learned enough that I can say the clusters are not favourable for wintry conditions for UK.

Yes I'm afraid for cold fans , the Outlook is as poor as possible

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

Please would you explain what that means if it is favourable please for wintry conditions thank you

In a word - not for the next couple of weeks at least. Last week of January still up for grabs, but at the moment the chances are on the low side I’m afraid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gefs are in the same ball park around day 12 as the eps in having a fair cluster driving a new ridge from the azores with the atlantic trough digging against it with resultant WAA - that's the next timescale to be looking at for coldies with a small chance that this can get a ridge far enough north …...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...