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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

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Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

image.thumb.png.a0af9ac95e3e658766992007518ac7d9.png

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

gfsnh-0-270.thumb.png.4dcda5c8291bcf719fca84020a86ac7c.pnggfsnh-1-288.thumb.png.53fd2de4d986cf56300c83c2fb3cafdf.png

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

 

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

Only thing is by then it wont be seasonal because we will be in spring, it will be unseasonal!  - still take it though.

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

image.thumb.png.a0af9ac95e3e658766992007518ac7d9.png

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

I suspect you're probably correct.  Early March cold outbreaks don't usually float my boat for my area, however given the amount of cold bottled up in the Arctic, I would imagine that any polar incursions would probably have a bit more bite than usual?  

And right on cue, the GFS is throwing out something to whet the appetite, right out in deepest FI.  Interesting, somewhat similar to CFS charts from late February that was posted earlier!? Something to keep an eye on.

image.thumb.png.2fe8eb90d128d4869def5e2ffdd57a2f.pngimage.thumb.png.65e3a05f88808f42086a76d66db1c503.png

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17 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi ,different run from GFS in the outer time span. Fragments the winter jet in mid-Atlantic and shows westward advancement of a big Siberian High is progress. Winters final fling with a beast from the east ? Now that would be the biggest surprise of all ! 

C

 

 

Regarding the above, well the biggest surprise is that the GFS op continues to show a pattern change in 10 days. The Siberian high continues to build westward looking at the latest outer chart below with the UK being primed for a late beast from the east. Wishful thinking maybe but crumbs of comfort from GFS as opposed to the rotten ECM runs. Great if it still shows in 12z op run

 

Edited by carinthian
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Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

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11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

Yes, it's alright it showing things which are in never never land as that's where they inevitably end up!! 

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