Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has record breaking AO & NAO at +7.5 & + 6 😮

A52C2919-3D82-4288-A748-0E4509CD46B6.thumb.jpeg.22ed244cbfe315441ed4acf08c3388b6.jpeg

5B893D3D-EF52-46A1-BEB4-F96038E276BA.thumb.jpeg.04037d4e08a0f1d252d70c9a48982c96.jpeg

 

😥

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

image.thumb.png.a0af9ac95e3e658766992007518ac7d9.png

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

gfsnh-0-270.thumb.png.4dcda5c8291bcf719fca84020a86ac7c.pnggfsnh-1-288.thumb.png.53fd2de4d986cf56300c83c2fb3cafdf.png

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

 

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

Only thing is by then it wont be seasonal because we will be in spring, it will be unseasonal!  - still take it though.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here comes the change as we head towards spring again,record cold outbreak wouldn’t surprise me ,😃

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our last hopes for this winter go the gfs. Ecm is horrendous

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

image.thumb.png.a0af9ac95e3e658766992007518ac7d9.png

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

I suspect you're probably correct.  Early March cold outbreaks don't usually float my boat for my area, however given the amount of cold bottled up in the Arctic, I would imagine that any polar incursions would probably have a bit more bite than usual?  

And right on cue, the GFS is throwing out something to whet the appetite, right out in deepest FI.  Interesting, somewhat similar to CFS charts from late February that was posted earlier!? Something to keep an eye on.

image.thumb.png.2fe8eb90d128d4869def5e2ffdd57a2f.pngimage.thumb.png.65e3a05f88808f42086a76d66db1c503.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi ,different run from GFS in the outer time span. Fragments the winter jet in mid-Atlantic and shows westward advancement of a big Siberian High is progress. Winters final fling with a beast from the east ? Now that would be the biggest surprise of all ! 

C

 

 

Regarding the above, well the biggest surprise is that the GFS op continues to show a pattern change in 10 days. The Siberian high continues to build westward looking at the latest outer chart below with the UK being primed for a late beast from the east. Wishful thinking maybe but crumbs of comfort from GFS as opposed to the rotten ECM runs. Great if it still shows in 12z op run

 

Edited by carinthian
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

Yes, it's alright it showing things which are in never never land as that's where they inevitably end up!! 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 6z looks nice enough for a later pattern change - bit of an outlier though if you look at Moscow ensembles:

image.thumb.png.f49ea61b8599054efc8bc0f6730a6829.pngimage.thumb.png.f8410606c82457e3ebdca90fdb071749.pngimage.thumb.png.bb7cb540cc6b4522d16537d2a58c26a6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK folks going to lock this thread and another is opened here.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Michael Fish: 21c this weekend? But windy with it

    Michael Fish brings us his latest weekly forecast, looking ahead to a warm weekend with highs up to 21c possible. Next week sees one or two swings in temperature and some rain at times, but there'll be plenty of mild, often sunny weather on offer. Watch the video here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Weather forecasting concerns as number of aircraft observations plummet

    Changes in the weather world as observations reduce from aircraft and on land in the time of global pandemic. Less initial data to input into the computer models. AMDAR AIREP Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...