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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
17 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi ,different run from GFS in the outer time span. Fragments the winter jet in mid-Atlantic and shows westward advancement of a big Siberian High is progress. Winters final fling with a beast from the east ? Now that would be the biggest surprise of all ! 

C

 

 

Regarding the above, well the biggest surprise is that the GFS op continues to show a pattern change in 10 days. The Siberian high continues to build westward looking at the latest outer chart below with the UK being primed for a late beast from the east. Wishful thinking maybe but crumbs of comfort from GFS as opposed to the rotten ECM runs. Great if it still shows in 12z op run

 

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nowt much to get over-excited about on today's 06Z, almost no -10C T850s within striking distance:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Given the near 100% false-positive rate so far this winter, I think I'll just wait and see what happens!:search:

Yes, it's alright it showing things which are in never never land as that's where they inevitably end up!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS 6z looks nice enough for a later pattern change - bit of an outlier though if you look at Moscow ensembles:

image.thumb.png.f49ea61b8599054efc8bc0f6730a6829.pngimage.thumb.png.f8410606c82457e3ebdca90fdb071749.pngimage.thumb.png.bb7cb540cc6b4522d16537d2a58c26a6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK folks going to lock this thread and another is opened here.

 

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