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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

One of these lows could be a snow maker if they dig far enough south?...#straws #clutching 

EF8D7E75-3C0B-4404-8B93-65A514B7DA6A.png

7794F060-BBDA-46E5-8578-9DA1D5D3DF35.png

That would have a very good chance of causing blizzards with 500mb heights that low and 850s just about good enough. Never going to happen, but interesting none the less!

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

In times such as these, you have to look to the longer term to find a way out.....unfortunately there doesn't seem to be one at the moment.

image.thumb.png.0e597841446e0dbc231f26fe24753348.pngimage.thumb.png.93631ac842575e20ad9fe2fc2eb7ef68.png

ECM (and the GFS too) long range locked in on a deep trough for the next 15 days. We've probably got 2 weeks of winter left to salvage something.

 

That's the trouble on a winter like this.The light at the end of the tunnel turns out to be a (zonal) train coming the other way.

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For those hoping for some PM flows .

For that you need a PV which is more disrupted with some small wedges of heights normally towards the ne to help direct the jet more se .

A rounded PV blob isn’t going to deliver anything , regardless of what the GFS might show at longer range .

The bias is well known regarding the GFS in these set ups and also applies to a lesser degree with the other longer range outputs.

Edited by nick sussex
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33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For those hoping for some PM flows .

For that you need a PV which is more disrupted with some small wedges of heights normally towards the ne to help direct the jet more se .

A rounded PV blob isn’t going to deliver anything , regardless of what the GFS might show at longer range .

The bias is well known regarding the GFS in these set ups and also applies to a lesser degree with the other longer range outputs.

 

88279789-3A95-4B57-94BB-87EE466DC027.jpeg

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35 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSP20EU06_198_2.png

Random ensemble alert, posed because the 850's are incredible considering he pattern it is showing.

Interesting chart. Maybe it’s really an Easterly flow disguised as a Westerly. ?

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Afternoon all ?

Nothing at all for fans of deep cold and prolonged wintry weather in the current output for much of February and indeed into March contrary to my first thoughts and hopes.

We do see an intriguing change in the jet stream as it moves further south to be moving across southern Britain which would mean more frequent colder PM incursions into northern Britain and the likelihood of some considerable snowfall for Scottish mountains. Lower down and further south just rain and wind for most.

The Azores HP cells push up from the SW but cannot progress north because of the strength of the jet fuelled by the TPV so collapse across southern Britain into the continent.

I'm not enthused by the strat either - warmings simply push the TPV back into its usual home where it currently looks fixed into March.

The interest will be if we can get periods of negative alignment in the trough to bring in some colder PM air but as the HP heads east the tilt turns back positive and TM air returns.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

And even better, your roof will get blown off so you won't even need to go outside to experience the blizzard. Mean winds verging on Cat 2 hurricane strength just a stones throw from Cornwall 6 hours earlier:

 

 

Just spat my coffee all over my keyboard, too funny!!   God help Cornwall if that verifies!!

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Don't bother with the GFS 12z FI, more of the same, just a different take, with the uppers weaker so mostly cold rain for England:

anim_vfp7.gif

More likely than the better cold NW/W/ly flows, but too early for clarity, though something in that synoptic envelope looks highly probable.

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The fat lady and the towel are ready...... I never throw in one or wait for the other - I’m normally ever the optimist - however this winter has been the worst for cold and snow for many years, and it’s not looking like anything is about to change!

Yes we still have February and some of March (so there is still a chance of a wintry spell) but models looking as they have all winter....rubbish!

 

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Christ!!looking at the models is pretty uninspiring .front loaded ,back loaded winter seems there is zero escape from that loaded PV to the north west!!!one sleet shower here since November .anyone got a positive today barring the heating bills been ok.is there anything in regard to a ssw???

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Looking at the control, op and mean way out in FI, rarely are they so aligned:

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.27b7ed331e035ee8a2bb2ea33cabb357.pnggfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.1897b26c78fd0b97672cb81df934f922.png326568334_gensnh-21-1-384(10).thumb.png.ebe429718736412cb32bf18ca23bcbc0.png

One or two noisy members but the ensembles reflect the mean well.

My region shows only a couple of days (out of 16) where the mean uppers fall below the seasonal average:

graphe9_1000_304_153___.thumb.png.603c1af809813fb542af5a33c1d5c71b.png

January at +2.6c above the average was a warm one, at least Feb looks likely to be closer to the climate average.

Look at the jet crossing the Atlantic:

D6 to D8> anim_nxf6.gif D8-D16> anim_rxx2.gif

Little chance of any heights building with the westerly jet powering through, so pretty much confirms the underlying atmospheric drivers that are preventing forcing, with the double whammy of the tPV being a monster, and keeping this winter under lock and key.

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8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the control, op and mean way out in FI, rarely are they so aligned:

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.27b7ed331e035ee8a2bb2ea33cabb357.pnggfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.1897b26c78fd0b97672cb81df934f922.png326568334_gensnh-21-1-384(10).thumb.png.ebe429718736412cb32bf18ca23bcbc0.png

One or two noisy members but the ensembles reflect the mean well.

My region shows only a couple of days (out of 16) where the mean uppers fall below the seasonal average:

graphe9_1000_304_153___.thumb.png.603c1af809813fb542af5a33c1d5c71b.png

January at +2.6c above the average was a warm one, at least Feb looks likely to be closer to the climate average.

Look at the jet crossing the Atlantic:

D6 to D8> anim_nxf6.gif D8-D16> anim_rxx2.gif

Little chance of any heights building with the westerly jet powering through, so pretty much confirms the underlying atmospheric drivers that are preventing forcing, with the double whammy of the tPV being a monster, and keeping this winter under lock and key.

Does make you wonder whether that key to something cold and snowy UK-wide will be found at all this Winter. Otherwise, perhaps the models might find the key in Spring ?

(By then, might not be too shocking to see some of us going after warmer weather).

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Holy schmoley!  ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.57c7fc6cc39bbdac9e87cb40b5698c51.jpg

Looks like a NW'ly draw for some time after too, with cold air in there too:

image.thumb.jpg.eebae3c36d19cd2b5e6b2d5b9ff82890.jpg

Edit: beaten to it!!

This winter has been awful for cold, but so far, at least down south it hasn't been a storm fest, maybe a really unsettled stormy phase coming up for the country...

Edited by Mike Poole
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4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Wow, I do not think I have ever seen a cyclonic circulation as huge as this one from ECM at 240t.

 C

ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

That's a monster!! .. 935mb any closer to the UK with 1035mb over the Azores , would present a new angle on a UK Wide "White Out" ...............  an "Isobar White Out"  Pressure differential across the UK would be unprecedented

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Once again, interesting to see the GFS 12Z OP taking the jet just along the Channel coast so the possibility of extended periods of PM air for northern Britain and snowfall for higher ground.

The ECM 12Z OP ends with a monster LP centred over (I think) western Norway - the MSLP would threaten the record for Norway which is 938 MB set in February 1907. Curiously, the record high MSLP for Norway is 1061 MB also set in 1907 (January). I have to say the winds associated with that monster would be country-wide and serious for the UK (fortunately the woodshed in the far SW should remain intact)

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2 hours ago, IDO said:

Don't bother with the GFS 12z FI, more of the same, just a different take, with the uppers weaker so mostly cold rain for England:

anim_vfp7.gif

More likely than the better cold NW/W/ly flows, but too early for clarity, though something in that synoptic envelope looks highly probable.

looks like another potentially very cold Feb here..just like last year

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10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

That's a monster!! .. 935mb any closer to the UK with 1035mb over the Azores , would present a new angle on a UK Wide "White Out" ...............  an "Isobar White Out"  Pressure differential across the UK would be unprecedented

Just tried to trace back to the isobar line from Sussex , thousands of miles of equal cyclonic pressure. Got lost ! Yes, looking at the overview picture from ECM at day 10 , plenty of wintry showers packing into the NW with snow lying on hills with those winds , plenty of drifting. Hope it comes to fruition and then spread down to the Eastern Alps.

C

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