Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, Dean E said:

This is probably the closest the UK is getting towards a winter for the foreseeable. The Ski resorts may finally have some positive trade over the coming weeks.

This winter so far has been incredible, with the beginning starting way back in October and nothing much changing since then... an extended Autumn!

Like other have said, there is a lot of cold air bottled over the Arctic and eventually it will head towards us and the low latitudes as the sPV and tPV breakdown for their season end. Whether this comes in time for the end of February or March remains to be seen.

One increasing chance is that spring may end up on the cool side, which I think would be the final nail in the coffin...

My thoughts on this never ending winter crap train is we will keep getting cold zonal flows thru the first half of Feb. Maybe a few sleet showers if your lucky then boom. Winter will start like never before. And we will be begging for the snow to melt. I can just see it happening. Have faith coldies it will happen soon. Longer range predictions MJO. AO etc go out of the window in this day and age. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lmfao with WINTERS DONE ?for frog sake I am 49 and I seen some very good harsh winters back in the 70s 80s and the majority of the good cold spell were in February exepet 78, 79... Also 82 I believe, as for 2010 the beast from the east that was an other small cold snap in my area Powder snow and the biggest drift in a ritual area about 4 foot ??️bring back a proper easterly with 12 foot drifts and proper snowball snow, it will come... When? But Winters not over yet at all..... In my trained ?. Its a coming ??️?️?️?️?️ in Winter we trust ❄️☃️?️?️?️?

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still lots of spread on the ens for South Yorkshire my area from the 6th of Feb etc some hitting the - 8 850hpa cold enough for snow if conditions are correct dew point etc. This is from the cold zonal I'd suggest so probs be downgraded by then. 

t850South_Yorkshire.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I so hope for a lovely cold and snowy period in winter.

Never mind reality, I don't think I've ever known a winter like this where even the models in FI have offered so little promise.

Maybe the models are improving?

Nonetheless, on those occasions where they do offer up the prospect of something mode Narnia-like, I find the recent history leading up to what they are portraying plays a big part in their credibility.  To me, if models start portraying WAA invading Greenland when it's failed to get anywhere near it in the previous weeks, they are not to be believed,   Like  the experience of 1947 tells us, something magical can happen out of the mildest of winter periods.  But that winter was not without its previous cold spells, arising from temporarily successful attempts  to introduce a pattern of weather that eventually established itself.

These potential cold spells the models have flirted with, as far and few between as they have modeled this winter, do not stand up to scrutiny when you consider they portray something that has consistently failed to materialize to any degree in the previous weeks, let alone to the 'tipping point' degree of what would drastically change the weather on a long term basis.

Once I thought the existence of so much high pressure consistently around gave us a shot of a real winter.  It just fell in the wrong place.  Nothing to do with climate change or anything. The UK has had plenty such winters  in the past and will again in the future.  

I think we might get a couple of very late cold snaps this time around, but I see this winter as stuck in a rut. What we have is what we will have more or less for the majority of it.

C'est la vie.  Next year will be very very different!

 

 

 

Edited by Timmytour
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Fun and games in NE Canada/Hudson Bay. 500mb heights !!

 

image.thumb.png.36d2a42bd539bfbe865c8af8d28e1e20.png

Thats good to know for us in the UK ?

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another day and no real change. Zonal for the next 16-days, bar the brief mini-ridge/topple in the flow. Subtle changes in FI; the Pacific high moderates after D13, the Russian high is filling and Iberian heights remain on the op and mean. So any NW’ly from around then is better sourced rather than earlier which is moderated by a westerly influence, though within that ebb and flow of milder sectors. All out in la-la land so subject to variability. I would say that reasonable confidence in the next 2-weeks.

Post-mid-February if extrapolating the D16 mean doesn’t look promising:

1968073676_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.54d321eba22e6b6021a1908a9e455b8a.png  graphe6_1000_298_152___.thumb.png.b0c2d8ec9be5849fe7de52ae88981162.png

^^^ The 2m temps for my locale sums it up sadly, this being peak-winter potential!

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I so hope for a lovely cold and snowy period in winter.

Never mind reality, I don't think I've ever known a winter like this where even the models in FI have offered so little promise.

Maybe the models are improving?

Nonetheless, on those occasions where they do offer up the prospect of something mode Narnia-like, I find the recent history leading up to what they are portraying plays a big part in their credibility.  To me, if models start portraying WAA invading Greenland when it's failed to get anywhere near it in the previous weeks, they are not to be believed,   Like  the experience of 1947 tells us, something magical can happen out of the mildest of winter periods.  But that winter was not without its previous cold spells, arising from temporarily successful attempts  to introduce a pattern of weather that eventually established itself.

These potential cold spells the models have flirted with, as far and few between as they have modeled this winter, do not stand up to scrutiny when you consider they portray something that has consistently failed to materialize to any degree in the previous weeks, let alone to the 'tipping point' degree of what would drastically change the weather on a long term basis.

Once I thought the existence of so much high pressure consistently around gave us a shot of a real winter.  It just fell in the wrong place.  Nothing to do with climate change or anything. The UK has had plenty such winters  in the past and will again in the future.  

I think we might get a couple of very late cold snaps this time around, but I see this winter as stuck in a rut. What we have is what we will have more or less for the majority of it.

C'est la vie.  Next year will be very very different!

 

 

 

I used to think that when we had these sorts of winters in the late eighties, but the next year often proved to be the same.

 

We will probably see this sort of pattern set in by the end of November and one of the experts will say 'this was always going to be a backloaded winter'.....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A colder day or two Tuesday/Wednesday next week before normal service resumes.

image.thumb.png.90898dc30617414ba090064f8ddbbdac.png


Back to mild, wet and windy. Strong to very strong vortex as we head towards mid February.


image.thumb.png.0841b233f4924739afef39c5bfb80484.pngimage.thumb.png.44ea85e23715dfb4bbf5ca390128ac86.pngimage.thumb.png.dd597f506fcdeffdb930a69b59138102.pngimage.thumb.png.63d8897d3de59a58d082a0cd632d0d2b.png
 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

yes please!

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To Me it looks like we will eventually get a battle between the bitter cold in the North vs the mild uppers in the south for a time and then I really do think we could end with something more cold than just a polar maritime zonal flow. It does nothing for my area a zonal flow has the pennies get in the way lol. Where has an Easterly we get convection of the north sea. When we get something more colder is the question. This year i won't throw in the pram until at least the 1st of April. Due to the fact the vortex looks angry this year. Roll on the 6z gfs run. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are @Bristle boy and yours truly imagining things, or is everyone-else in denial? Tell me there's not an exceptional amount (for the time of year) of warm uppers, away to the SW, S and SE...?:crazy:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Are #Bristle boy and yours truly imagining things, or is everyone-else in denial? Tell me there's not an exceptional amount (for the time of year) of warm uppers, away to the SW, S and SE...?:crazy:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It is Winter though Pete - most of us are looking NW, N and NE. ?

In Summer we don’t look NW, N and NE for cold uppers...? (Well apart from @ANYWEATHER - hope you are well mate)

As usual we are on the edge when it comes to anything wintry or Spring like (warmth/sunshine) - joys of living in the UK and Ireland at this time of year.

Others have summed up the outlook so not much too add - only annoying thing for me is that the mild temperatures this Winter have always brought low cloud, rain and dull/dank days. (Warm rain/cold rain - I’ll pass on both)

Today for example it’s currently 11c and absolutely hosing down with rain! I would have no issue with the milder weather if it brought sunshine and pleasant feeling days! (Never seems to happen IMBY at this time of year)

In the meantime I shall pray that these latest GFS charts become reality! ?
 

4926889A-A2A8-4FA6-8C16-E6F77891A3B0.thumb.png.7ffb0a9f62b81fca1d5cd350d6f20b1e.pngDBFD9D11-45B5-4E6D-81D8-E3706C29FBEE.thumb.png.5d01f5490d3a8596064dde4d22d07fa1.pngD394B7C6-4AEE-4D1D-A8C7-F4CC03DC4701.thumb.png.c0cb7dca1cf9c5919f24bd58bceacdda.png

Even in a crap Winter like this - small windows of opportunity do arrive now and then! 

I bet snow lovers living in the South West/South of England wish they could turn back the clock to this time/day last year...☃️

Have a good day everyone!

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

It is Winter though Pete - most of us are looking NW, N and NE. ?

In Summer we don’t look NW, N and NE for cold uppers...? (Well apart from @ANYWEATHER - hope you are well mate)

As usual we are on the edge when it comes to anything wintry or Spring like (warmth/sunshine) - joys of living in the UK and Ireland at this time of year.

Others have summed up the outlook so not much too add - only annoying thing for me is that the mild temperatures this Winter have always brought low cloud, rain and dull/dank days. (Warm rain/cold rain - I’ll pass on both)

Today for example it’s currently 11c and absolutely hosing down with rain! I would have no issue with the milder weather if it brought sunshine and pleasant feeling days! (Never seems to happen IMBY at this time of year)

In the meantime I shall pray that these latest GFS charts become reality! ?
 

4926889A-A2A8-4FA6-8C16-E6F77891A3B0.thumb.png.7ffb0a9f62b81fca1d5cd350d6f20b1e.pngDBFD9D11-45B5-4E6D-81D8-E3706C29FBEE.thumb.png.5d01f5490d3a8596064dde4d22d07fa1.pngD394B7C6-4AEE-4D1D-A8C7-F4CC03DC4701.thumb.png.c0cb7dca1cf9c5919f24bd58bceacdda.png

Even in a crap Winter like this - small windows of opportunity do arrive now and then! 

I bet snow lovers living in the South West/South of England wish they could turn back the clock to this time/day last year...☃️

Have a good day everyone!

Sorry Mr F...I think I'd forgotten!:oldlaugh:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is why I laugh at those who say winter hasn't even started yet when people complain I'm December. History tells us if it's a bad start, it's overwhelmingly likely to be a bad middle and ending too. You just knew it would be a write off when the PV got its act together in late November and perfectly synchronized with the troposphere.

Worrying signs for future winters when background signals like deep solar minimum and transition to east QBO haven't even made a fraction of a dent on the vortex. There is another big player that we are completely oblivious to. Who knows what it is.

Edited by Snowy L
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The northerly that was forecast for UK few days ago will be gladly received by us next week. Mind you it will be transient, now in a state where I am happy to pick up crumbs  this poor winter gives.

oeuAv3BSNW.gif

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

This is why I laugh at those who say winter hasn't even started yet when people complain I'm December. History tells us if it's a bad start, it's overwhelmingly likely to be a bad middle and ending too. You just knew it would be a write off when the PV got its act together in late November and perfectly synchronized with the troposphere.

Worrying signs for future winters when background signals like deep solar minimum and transition to east QBO haven't even made a fraction of a dent on the vortex. There is another big player that we are completely oblivious to. Who knows what it is.

It's not oblivious - the Met/ECM etc all put out their long range winter forecasts for a mild +NAO winter mainly based on the record IOD event in late autumn/early winter. There was a tweet floating round somewhere that reference this, and it's proved to be bang on. Perhaps at the strength it was it's a major factor to consider in the future if it should materialise again. It simply overpowered everything else and primed the atmosphere for low pressure over the pole.

image.thumb.png.b71b96a7828b750f1edf52185436f38c.png
 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's not oblivious - the Met/ECM etc all put out their long range winter forecasts for a mild +NAO winter mainly based on the record IOD event in late autumn/early winter. There was a tweet floating round somewhere that reference this, and it's proved to be bang on. Perhaps at the strength it was it's a major factor to consider in the future if it should materialise again. It simply overpowered everything else and primed the atmosphere for low pressure over the pole.

image.thumb.png.b71b96a7828b750f1edf52185436f38c.png
 

I think that even the record IOD event can't fully explain the complete lack of cold spells so far this winter and we only have one month left but the outlook is very poor. Until recently, I was using winter 1997/8 as the benchmark of a horrid winter but even that did give a cold spell or two and some snow in December. 

Looking at the 6z gfs, it looks like the best we can hope for now is some cool zonality which can give some snow on the hills from time to time.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing how consistent the models become when we are stuck in groundhog-day, when major NH features dominate. The GFS 0z and 06z:

gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.f6c99dea6c0376069cae78e5cde742d0.pnggfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.f3caa3d4f1c6eb9937615cb3e38281be.png

I could post yesterday's charts as well. So those expecting anything to change quickly are going to be disappointed I would think. The Pacific High oscillating, so quasi-ridge, but enough to sustain a wedge of heights in the Arctic region to maintain that twin-tPV. We can see the omnipotent westerly undercurrent with the stream of HP cells circulating the low-lats feeding the two-pronged highs (Pacific and Iberian) in the ebb and flow. Possibly joined by the returning Russian/Siberian high further in FI.

Looks stormy, wet at times, alternating cool and average, once the HP cell falls in the westerly flow late next week. For crofters and mountain goats maybe some white stuff, Scotland primed for some sustained heavier stuff if not downgraded (north/south split of sorts).

The big question is how quickly will the tPV lose its power, they say the bigger they are, the bigger they fall, so there is hope that mid-February after raging for over 6-weeks it may call it quits quicker than we expect? That is my crumb of comfort at the moment!

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In times such as these, you have to look to the longer term to find a way out.....unfortunately there doesn't seem to be one at the moment.

image.thumb.png.0e597841446e0dbc231f26fe24753348.pngimage.thumb.png.93631ac842575e20ad9fe2fc2eb7ef68.png

ECM (and the GFS too) long range locked in on a deep trough for the next 15 days. We've probably got 2 weeks of winter left to salvage something.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is not pretty. A low with central pressure below 940mb!!

216-515UK.GIF?31-6

Very unusual to see such widespread gales - could be problems if verified

216-289UK.GIF?31-6

What's a bit scary is that it is not likely to be an outlier - the ECM D10 got below 940mb just north of Scotland, and what about this for a mean; 965mb MEAN pressure at D10 - really not seen that before. There'd probably be "runners" along the southern flank that could cause trouble.

EDM1-240.GIF?31-12

 

It would be nice if a runners could bring some wintry interest to break up the boredom. 

Again, incredible charts for February - very 2014esque! Seems the polar night is lasting longer this year.... Even with downgrades to the strength of these turno lows, they’d still be significant in wind terms. The only plus side is that rain belts would move through pretty quickly rather than get stuck over the country like in the stagnant southwesterly setups.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it’s not going to be cold then let it be calm and mild please. No, after next week it looks like blowing a gale and hammering down often? in 14 I had to ask the neighbour for my daughters trampoline back? I fear i might need to repeat that request. The only good news? It’s probably time I had another conversation with the neighbours ?

1108E065-4A99-4051-B7F0-89C12BC66317.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Och well, it looks like my chionophilia will have to go unrequited for another year.:oldsad: 

But, looking on the bright side, should the tPV shrink poleward by only 500 miles or so, we could find ourselves looking forward to one of the warmest March-September periods on record?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...