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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Just now, shaky said:

Gfs 18z ouch!!!!!!!amplification completely gone at just 96 hours!!!

Thankfully the stakes weren’t that high for coldies . The difference really is extending the mammoth cold spell from around one day to barely two !

 

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Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

Vile

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EC46 is the most zonal i have ever seen for 4 weeks until week 5 shows a very very slight signal for a ridge starting to move North into Scandi - this is the best i can do im afraid.

image.thumb.png.a2a8a897852db1cd8c2abd46ac6a5f29.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is the most zonal i have ever seen for 4 weeks until week 5 shows a very very slight signal for a ridge starting to move North into Scandi - this is the best i can do im afraid.

image.thumb.png.a2a8a897852db1cd8c2abd46ac6a5f29.png

Yup winter is done mate!!!!even with that higher anomaly to the east wont really make much of a difference it shall be start of.march by then and knowing our luck it will probably bring in warm south east winds from the med instead!!think we should be looking more forward to the warmth of spring now than any meaning full.cold and snow!!

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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.

But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup winter is done mate!!!!even with that higher anomaly to the east wont really make much of a difference it shall be start of.march by then and knowing our luck it will probably bring in warm south east winds from the med instead!!think we should be looking more forward to the warmth of spring now than any meaning full.cold and snow!!

Agree winter is done but wouldn't go as far as that - still worth going right through to early April - April 6th (ish) 2012 brought 2 inches (admittedly slush) of snow - my biggest ever April fall possibly excluding Late April 81 but was too young to remember that - that was a royal dumping even as far South as the South Midlands.

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5 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.

But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.

forget about Feb not going to happen just take a look at the AO that's the only thing you really need to look at as it's very accurate.

ao.sprd2.gif

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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Where is the Siberian high this year?

On a summer holliday ? 

Sry but im very disappointed also that this season nothing can go good ......a weird idea

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4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .

The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA  low .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .

The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .

Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .

Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! 

I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .

Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold ! 

 

Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet.

So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable  weather.

Andy

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If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

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1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

No back to 88/89 ! That was a horror show of epic proportions . 

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8 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

The chart below this week produced the image below, so the above i say yes please sir 4 bags full.

gfsnh-2020012712-0-6.png

Knock 270120.jpg

gfs-1-228.png

gfsnh-0-222.png

Edited by booferking
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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No back to 88/89 ! That was a horror show of epic proportions . 

 

10 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

 

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

Yes Nick - these charts showing NW flows whilst they don't really float my boat as it usually ends up 2 inches of slush here, you could get lucky and get snow as far south as London with Cheshire gap streamers and a 6 inch fall not out the question here if i got very lucky so at least snow is showing, but as you say they rarely verify thats the problem, but the charts you see on GFS around 216 sometimes where the prevailing wind direction is N of West are maybe not the best but not as bad as 88/89 or 13/14.

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56 minutes ago, Dennis said:

still time to go to look better.....

 

image.thumb.png.aa71be6d2648323299819afb1d95c2ff.png

Thanks Dennis

as you are the only one to touch up on this

the ICON is more amplified at 120 than the 12z

18z 120 v's 126 12z

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.ad8a2c6f248a75356bbbae547d4f74fd.pngiconnh-0-126.thumb.png.09f16752eaa0fec9334aca16e888320d.png

maybe there is leg room in those trousers.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

The below chart this week produced the image below, so the above i say yes please sir 4 bags full.

 

This one gives you a right belting.

image.thumb.png.f88b8e7bd7e3c0c9bd6a667194367364.png

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks Dennis

as you are the only one to touch up on this

the ICON is more amplified at 120 than the 12z

18z 120 v's 126 12z

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.ad8a2c6f248a75356bbbae547d4f74fd.pngiconnh-0-126.thumb.png.09f16752eaa0fec9334aca16e888320d.png

maybe there is leg room in those trousers.

thnx -the ICON model 18z showed the ideas of GFS6z and a EC model this morning

hope to make a block longer than 1 day

image.thumb.png.cd20d4cefdad5b6553265788e94f65db.pngimage.thumb.png.453d36fe38011a39fe9c8232936fbde3.png

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29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Where is the Siberian high this year?

It's in the making on this run,it would force the jet more southerly on a NW>SE trajectory i would of thought

watch this space.

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28 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet.

So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable  weather.

Andy

The 18z is a good example of true cold zonality, some mouthwatering snow totals for Northern Ireland and Cumbria and the North Pennines.

image.thumb.png.2d57e08874c206d450dab89aee7aa462.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 18z is a good example of true cold zonality, some mouthwatering snow totals for Northern Ireland and Cumbria and the North Pennines.

image.thumb.png.2d57e08874c206d450dab89aee7aa462.png

This is probably the closest the UK is getting towards a winter for the foreseeable. The Ski resorts may finally have some positive trade over the coming weeks.

This winter so far has been incredible, with the beginning starting way back in October and nothing much changing since then... an extended Autumn!

Like other have said, there is a lot of cold air bottled over the Arctic and eventually it will head towards us and the low latitudes as the sPV and tPV breakdown for their season end. Whether this comes in time for the end of February or March remains to be seen.

One increasing chance is that spring may end up on the cool side, which I think would be the final nail in the coffin...

 

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I no not model related but this gives you an idea of our climate and others been mild. My stepdad has an apartment in southern Spain place called benalmedina near malaga. Average temp for April is 17oC and yesterday it was 23oC so it ain't just us experiencing the mild weather. Also they had high winds last week due to high pressure been in control here. And lows going south towards Spain. 

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