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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Oh dear GFS, you really have not covered yourself in glory, total backtrack to a brief northerly then cold high on the 18z.

But will there be more twists and turns in the morning? 

Edited by Nick F
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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes you did and welcome that but if the low off the eastern states was to deepen and a secondary trough forms to the base of it like the latest gfs is showing then surely it would throw up more WAA ahead of it,this is what i am looking out for

and just as i type that secondary trough elongates further south amplifying it more,good run this

circled here at 132 

which leads to this

 

 

Yes - agree on the face of it, i would even go a stage further - knowing the GFS as i do, you wouldn't rule out even a proper high latitude block developing on subsequent runs, but contrary to popular opinion this would have been signposted for a while continuously on ensemble suites, these magic spells do not just pop up in the 96 to 144 range without any signal, could of course be a Northerly but it will be a few marginal flakes down the East coast and some night time frosts most probably.

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Gfs loves shortwaves, at 168 hr it shows a developing scandi high then throws in a shortwave to sink it away in less than 24 hrs.. no model at such range can be expected to model shortwavea correctly.. so yes every chance might see a bit more of a sustained high in future runs but probably one that sits more over UK whilst initially ridging ne.. a few days under a cold high possible.

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27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I expect further corrections west in the coming day or two,the 18z is def more amplified

the more amplified the more corrections west ie:- slowing the pattern down

i would even go on to call a scandi block if amplified enough

just my hunch. 

OH YOU TEASE!

Everything is on the table right now post day 7/8. Big scatter.

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There’s going to be plenty more ups and downs in the coming days before it all becomes clearer over the weekend. Will we finally get a taste of winter or will it be the famous garden path walk? We will find out soon enough, I for one think we might actually be in for a little surprise this time after all I think after this shocking winter so far we are due one.

keep up the great posts people and remember this weather hobby makes fools of us all most of the time, we just need to try and enjoy what we all have in common on here

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9 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

There’s going to be plenty more ups and downs in the coming days before it all becomes clearer over the weekend. Will we finally get a taste of winter or will it be the famous garden path walk? We will find out soon enough, I for one think we might actually be in for a little surprise this time after all I think after this shocking winter so far we are due one.

keep up the great posts people and remember this weather hobby makes fools of us all most of the time, we just need to try and enjoy what we all have in common on here

Lol nice post but if I had a pound for every time someone says:

• Looks like anything can happen!

• However I have a feeling that ____ will happen ?

• But the weather will do what it wants, so let’s enjoy the ride!

... I would have enough money to enjoy the actual winters and summers that happen everywhere else, all over the world ?

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lol nice post but if I had a pound for every time someone says:

• Looks like anything can happen!

• However I have a feeling that ____ will happen ?

• But the weather will do what it wants, so let’s enjoy the ride!

... I would have enough money to enjoy the actual winters and summers that happen everywhere else, all over the world ?

True but at the end of the day we are all on here for the same thing, we are all weather interested folk whether it’s cold or hot we generally like the extreme end of it. And the models do have a habit of throwing up the unexpected at times

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Just last week the GFS was consistently showing run after run a very deep area of low pressure passing by the West of the UK but the UKMO and ECM weren't interested in that idea and slowly but surely after about 3 runs the GFS backed away from that idea in a similar time-frame to which we're seeing here. So it will be interesting to see whether the 00z run continues this or not.

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Despite the GFS criticisms, the UKMO and ECM outputs are not that far away from being flatter and it is very fine margins either way. And if we are honest, the ECM is less amplified than previous runs, not to say it can't change in the morning but I don't see a lengthy cold snap on the way and most runs sends most of the cold unstable northerly flow to our east so snowfall looks limited. Hopefully than change in future runs. 

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1 hour ago, Zenarcher said:

Just last week the GFS was consistently showing run after run a very deep area of low pressure passing by the West of the UK but the UKMO and ECM weren't interested in that idea and slowly but surely after about 3 runs the GFS backed away from that idea in a similar time-frame to which we're seeing here. So it will be interesting to see whether the 00z run continues this or not.

Or maybe its best not to look at the gfs at all, considering how useless it's been the past 48 hours lol. What's the point of it going out to 384 hours when at 96 hours it gets it hopelessly wrong. 

Remember the met Office don't incude it when making their forecasts , they just glance at it, so I have heard. 

Edited by SLEETY
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4 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Despite the GFS criticisms, the UKMO and ECM outputs are not that far away from being flatter and it is very fine margins either way. And if we are honest, the ECM is less amplified than previous runs, not to say it can't change in the morning but I don't see a lengthy cold snap on the way and most runs sends most of the cold unstable northerly flow to our east so snowfall looks limited. Hopefully than change in future runs. 

Spot on! Sadly the amplification from the UKMO has vanished this morning with a toppling high.

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A pathetic 24 hour NW'ly on the UKMO and then this dross...

image.thumb.png.20c66fa2935279dc0bda177e5bc1f9cd.png

Setting up for a boring UK high or even a Euro High there. Energy piling over the top. What a wretched, insult of a winter this is.

Edited by LRD
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3 minutes ago, LRD said:

A pathetic 24 hour NW'ly on the UKMO and then this dross...

image.thumb.png.20c66fa2935279dc0bda177e5bc1f9cd.png

Setting up for a boring UK high or even a Euro High there. Energy piling over the top

Yes after all the hyping over it last night it changes?? Maybe it will change back but the average outlook continues moving into February altho at least it will be dry

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Pffff just like that my prediction from the other day comes to light this morning!!flat as a pancake lol!!love tight isobars positivity but we gota be realistic and this was always gona happen after all the let downs this winter!!

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42 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, another kick in the teeth from winter 19/20.

It's Paul I feel sorry for, the website is very quiet compared to normal! Such a shame to not have the usual buzz, like being on TWO ;)

Again, the UKMO at D6 is deemed useless when there is amplification in the mix. It seems to be 24h behind the game and now showing what the GFS showed most of yesterday; hopeless all winter in such scenarios for D6.

Looks like after D4 a brief 2-day topple giving us a burst of NW'lys. 

After this, ECM and GFS meet at D10 with a return to zonal, possibly of the colder variety (for favoured areas), sourced from the NW, but for the S/SE not much use:

graphe9_1000_301_152___.thumb.png.e4fc1d78bdff11bc24f6c7cdc07796b6.pnganim_zxo6.gif

^^^The sine wave activity of a zonal setup clear. Above the D16 tPV looks as strong as it has ever been this winter and clearly it has won this time and now it is heading home, the opportunity for the ebb and flow to bring us some high-lat block in our region has lessened. Zonal of some variety for the next 16-days would be a good call with the ongoing status quo since late December.

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1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, another kick in the teeth from winter 19/20.

It's Paul I feel sorry for, the website is very quiet compared to normal! Such a shame to not have the usual buzz, like being on TWO ;)

TWO is dead for a reason other than the weather though.  

It’s a pretty miserable outlook this morning, barely a cold NW’ly now if we’re lucky.  We knew GFS would probably roll back, but it’s still annoying even when it does what you expect it too! 

 

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18 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again, the UKMO at D6 is deemed useless when there is amplification in the mix. It seems to be 24h behind the game and now showing what the GFS showed most of yesterday; hopeless all winter in such scenarios for D6.

Looks like after D4 a brief 2-day topple giving us a burst of NW'lys. 

After this, ECM and GFS meet at D10 with a return to zonal, possibly of the colder variety (for favoured areas), sourced from the NW, but for the S/SE not much use:

graphe9_1000_301_152___.thumb.png.e4fc1d78bdff11bc24f6c7cdc07796b6.pnganim_zxo6.gif

^^^The sine wave activity of a zonal setup clear. Above the D16 tPV looks as strong as it has ever been this winter and clearly it has won this time and now it is heading home, the opportunity for the ebb and flow to bring us some high-lat block in our region has lessened. Zonal of some variety for the next 16-days would be a good call with the ongoing status quo since late December.

Ext EPS paints a similar story.  Very positive AO / NAO.

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4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Yes the truth is that when one model shows a less cold outcome compared to other models or downgrades a cold snap that sadly most often verifies.

There wasn’t ever a cold snap modelled though, this is what people forget. It showed up in a few op runs and ensembles, but was also countered by a significant number of mild ensemble members. Face facts, a weak high coming up before it flattens out to more zonality through the middle of February. That’s just how it is folks.

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15 minutes ago, Beanz said:

TWO is dead for a reason other than the weather though.  

It’s a pretty miserable outlook this morning, barely a cold NW’ly now if we’re lucky.  We knew GFS would probably roll back, but it’s still annoying even when it does what you expect it too! 

What was the reason? Always wondered why TWO went so quiet? PM me if it's easier as it's off topic.

Cheers, Andy

15 minutes ago, Beanz said:

 

 

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