Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

UKMO at t144 on board, GFS brings cold thrust a tad earlier compared to previous runs, ECMon board.....but!  It’s t168 onwards.  I got my ass bitten re December when favouring the cold outlook compared to my much less cold alternative.  Jan has turned out mild as was my favoured thoughts but  now I’ve committed to a mild Feb with HP in the wrong place.....weather gods please bite my ass again!!!! ?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

Posted Images

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thank god!!!

ecm at 168.

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.e452b07c01477038994f3e2d3e0d7e9c.gif

lets hope it counts down to this^

Looks better than the GFS with less energy escaping East round the Greenland tip ?

It could be all systems go in the Ecm ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

One day Northerly Toppler from ECM,tremendous stuff again.What an truly epic winter this has been.

Not a standard toppled that high isn’t going straight to Europe 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

Yes, disappointing ECM.  Has been signposted by the EPS - the pattern quickly flattening out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

At least that chart is dry. 
 

Lots of “boredom” needed around here with months of soaking. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

Probably still quite cold as well. Looks like the high will re-amplify to give us another toppler. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite the fact the Northerly on that run looks to brief for the UK with the Atlantic High collapsing, the 12Z ECMWF is no friend of the ICON and its flatter Atlantic ridge (the ridging of which doesn’t gain much Northwards latitude at all).

Enough room still I feel for any possible Northerly to be longer lasting, though a (fairly) brief one wouldn’t be too surprising. Further Northerly attempts could always happen, though. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m pleasantly surprised to see the ECM on board...it’s going to be a loooooonnnnng wait 

Yes a long wait alright, but this is already a big upgrade for the ECM, it's pretty rare that it sides with the GFS when cold is showing so it's looking more likely that there will be some interest for coldies in around a weeks time, so not complete and utter la la land. I would be extremely happy with a halfway house between GFS and ECM on this occasion.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

*chewing  fingernails *..

let's await the 12th suits  gefs/Eps-500'so. .

then perhaps  boots won't be selling out of -non biting  finger fluid-...

 

and prozac! !..

the alarm bells  are a-calling. ...and cold is ringing! !!..

hp  place. .fickle. ..

yet the eye  and mind can see the end is nigh. ...for continuous  miss-format. ..evolution. ..

winter AWAITS! !!

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m pleasantly surprised to see the ECM on board...it’s going to be a loooooonnnnng wait 

On board for what?  For most it’s no more exciting than today, 1-2 cold days with the odd flake in the east ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, disappointing ECM.  Has been signposted by the EPS - the pattern quickly flattening out.

I'd argue check suite/suite members. ..runs..as the minors will see the pattern change b4. .the massh dialogue  of data  long perms! !..

to which will  then  switch  us quick. ..but in them updating  beyond  what is by  then occur. ...

seen it MANY TIMES! !

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Things now look to be firming up on a good chance of a colder flow from the north this time next week, but whether it turns out to be a brief toppler and is quickly followed by HP settling back near the UK turning things milder again, or it brings a colder few days is all very much up in the air.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the ECM 'flattening the high' or is the pattern still developing? 

ECH1-216.GIF?28-0 ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

Why don't we wait and see, is it that difficult just to wait for another 12hrs?

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Better output, keep it coming. But it’s nothing amazing in terms of prolonged cold. Just shows how poor this winter has been that people are excited!

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...