Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Well ECM delivers the worse winter chart of the season across virtually the whole of Europe (for lovers of cold anyway ) and there has been plenty. Just hope this is the extreme of its output.

C

Sadly the mslp on ECM ens shows this worse scenario. Mild westerly flow powering from Canada well into deepest Russia. All this follows possibly the mildest ever January for many European countries. 

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Sadly the mslp on ECM ens shows this worse scenario. Mild westerly flow powering from Canada well into deepest Russia. All this follows possibly the mildest ever January for many European countries. 

It’s not quite as mild fest there is returning Pm air from Baffin Bay which is extremely cold but incredible how far westerlies penetrate.

[feb1991blizzard]

Stretching of the vortex right up into the mid to high strat on 18z.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Stretching of the vortex right up into the mid to high strat on 18z.

I think the PV will prove too resilient.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I think the PV will prove too resilient.

I reckon yes this time but an SSW too late - around early to mid March.

[Don]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I reckon yes this time but an SSW too late - around early to mid March.

Won't that be a final winter warming?  Hopes for a cold early spring look to be fading now?

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Won't that be a final winter warming?  Hopes for a cold early spring look to be fading now?

"Hopes"? "Cold early spring"? No such "hopes" here. A warm early Spring, yes.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

Won't that be a final winter warming?  Hopes for a cold early spring look to be fading now?

Might be but not always, sometimes the FW is late April, Still thing possibilities for cold spring there but not sure many on here are like me and want one. The reason i say March SSW is because a good few GEFS are showing a more amplified trop pre-cursor pattern in the semi reliable.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Might be but not always, sometimes the FW is late April, Still thing possibilities for cold spring there but not sure many on here are like me and want one. The reason i say March SSW is because a good few GEFS are showing a more amplified trop pre-cursor pattern in the semi reliable.

Well I sure as hell do after the winter so far!!

[SMU]

I wasnt go to login again this Winter however I just thought I would because we are on the verge ( possibly ) of breaking records for extreme weather > sadly not cold.

The arctic oscillation has recorded 16 days since 1950 at +5 or higher. We have never in ~2100 days of measuring hit +6.

Here is the record date +5.9.

Yesterdays 12z ECM peaked off the at around 7/7.5 AO -   

Totally unheard of shattering the record. 

Again noting that this has been unforecast by many although the seasonal models blended across the 3 months highlighted a very positive AO mean.

Here is the ECM data. CRAZY.

For the UK around the 10th / 11th this would mean the PV close by towards Iceland > Stormy conditions & Possible blizzards tup North. with the westerly flow blowing all the way through to Russia.

I noted on twitter yesterday Southern Norway & Finland are snowless- !

Edited February 2, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Newberryone]

Well the overnight Ecm still showing signs of windy weather, specifically the dates of the 10th, 11th and 12th with Scotland potentially in the firing line for the strongest of these winds come day 10 in particular. In general though heights to the south seem even more prevalent in this run so perhaps we might see a further toning down of this predicted stormy period in subsequent runs.

[tight isobar]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I wasnt go to login again this Winter however I just thought I would because we are on the verge ( possibly ) of breaking records for extreme weather > sadly not cold.

The arctic oscillation has recorded 16 days since 1950 at +5 or higher. We have never in ~2100 days of measuring hit +6.

Here is the record date +5.9.

Yesterdays 12z ECM peaked off the at around 7/7.5 AO -   

Totally unheard of shattering the record. 

Again noting that this has been unforecast by many although the seasonal models blended across the 3 months highlighted a very positive AO mean.

Here is the ECM data. CRAZY.

For the UK around the 10th / 11th this would mean the PV close by towards Iceland > Stormy conditions & Possible blizzards tup North. with the westerly flow blowing all the way through to Russia.

I noted on twitter yesterday Southern Norway & Finland are snowless- !

unprecedented  tbh. .

all pointing  are set ..and have been ..

we just cannot  win !!!..

[Iceaxecrampon]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

unprecedented  tbh. .

all pointing  are set ..and have been ..

we just cannot  win !!!..

I thought SM said sadly not cold - sounds like an apocalyptic post to be fair - but what do I know.

[Sky Full]

Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the final third of this winter judging by the current output and many of the recent posts reflect this.  So, in order to cheer a few people up (whilst bracing myself for a backlash from the purists), I am posting two sequences from the CFS covering the last week of February into the first week of March......

500s                                                             850s

   

This sequence, if it happened, would certainly bring long awaited wintry conditions to every part of the country at last.   I don't for one minute think these charts are going to verify, but the reason for posting them is to illustrate that, starting from the conditions prevailing today, it is still perfectly possible for the UK to experience another very cold easterly in late winter/early spring.  It's happened before.  The CFS is a model, like any other, and although the accuracy at this range is laughable the CFS does not generally display extremes of any kind because it is a Climate model, not a Weather model.  So, there may yet be a nip in the tail of this winter - nothing's over till it's over.....

 

[carinthian]

Morning all still trying to find crumbs of hope for you many lovers of cold winter weather. Sadly, especially ECM is at the rotten end of the scale, followed closely by where the UKMO model is heading. Our rescue beacon this morning lies with our American friend. At day 10 , again shows some kind of disruption of the relentless train of low pressure systems as they hit the Siberian block. It may be a rogue run but is still being shown , this despite the mean run pushing the westerly flow far into Russia. I know its grasping at straws but just hope the GFS run succeeds and the ECM fails at day 10 as a NWly could at least deliver some welcome snowfakes for you lot.

C

[Nick F]

00z ECMWF gone off the scale on the +AO index, GFS not quite so strong. Both deterministic runs of EC and GFS bit wayward from the ensemble pack though in FI.

Looking at the 10-15 day H500 mean in the extended EPS, looks like we have to get used to anomalously low heights over the N Atlantic and northern Europe. Upper ridge pushing poleward across Alaska, keeping the TPV pinned over Greenland and Iceland. Going to be a rough ride through early Feb for sure.

Edited February 2, 2020 by Nick F

[SMU]

ECM has record breaking AO & NAO at +7.5 & + 6

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has record breaking AO & NAO at +7.5 & + 6

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

Edited February 2, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[IDO]

Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Another run showing a pattern change with regard to the tPV losing its grip, at least for a time:

 

This reminds me of early winter, the three-wave trifecta that left the UK in the milder sector most of the time, UK high, Russian high and Pacific high/ridge!

Certainly better than the tPV cycling to our north as it has potential down the line for something more seasonal, though with the main tPV over to our NW far from perfect.

The GEFS on the 0z gave no help post-D10, and clearly we are in a state of flux awaiting model clarification as to FI. One to watch for the next few days.

Only thing is by then it wont be seasonal because we will be in spring, it will be unseasonal!  - still take it though.

[SLEETY]

here comes the change as we head towards spring again,record cold outbreak wouldn’t surprise me ,

[topo]

Our last hopes for this winter go the gfs. Ecm is horrendous

[mb018538]

Any hints of pattern change in the longer term yet?

Day 10 looking potentially very stormy:



Day 15 - Perhaps a bit less stormy, but still very unsettled. Perhaps a bit more ridging into the south, but very limited in nature:

 

[Ice Day]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice NH pattern, SSW guaranteed at this time of year if we could get there.

And very probably resulting in another March 2018.

I suspect you're probably correct.  Early March cold outbreaks don't usually float my boat for my area, however given the amount of cold bottled up in the Arctic, I would imagine that any polar incursions would probably have a bit more bite than usual?  

And right on cue, the GFS is throwing out something to whet the appetite, right out in deepest FI.  Interesting, somewhat similar to CFS charts from late February that was posted earlier!? Something to keep an eye on.