Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

Synopticallly the Model output has been pants this winter but even so, if you look at the snow charts, if you could bank runs, i still would probably have had my snowiest winter ever!!   

[PiscesStar]

An absolute snorefest for anyone aways from Scotland and the North West of the country. Any interesting stuff ie snow for these areas only. Otherwise it's rain and distinctly average temperatures elsewhere. Vortex looking fierce as per.... Just crap really...... 

[Mr Frost]

Incredibly windy GFS 18z run - second half especially. 

This would be noteworthy - check out those insane predicted gusts!

 

Bonkers stuff - hard to imagine this run would become reality! We shall see!

Edited January 31, 2020 by Mr Frost

[PiscesStar]

If its wind and rain its bound to manifest... If it was snow absolutely not on your Nellie....  

[Cuban Zebra]

We’re going to have to batten down the hatches!! Some extreme figures for some here!

There seems to be something at play now, I think we’ll start to see some cracking charts appear for extreme weather hunters!!

[PiscesStar]

Cracking in what sense do you mean?? 

[PiscesStar]

15 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

We’re going to have to batten down the hatches!! Some extreme figures for some here!

There seems to be something at play now, I think we’ll start to see some cracking charts appear for extreme weather hunters!!

Cracking in what sense? 

[Cuban Zebra]

10 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Cracking in what sense? 

Probably should have said interesting! I reckon a good cold shot will materialise soon!

[Geordiesnow]

Think it's far too early to talk about deep lows despite some hints in the output. What is looking more certain is the remarkable mild temperatures we will see after the high ridges over us and heads eastwards. 

Next week looks interesting in that we could start off with limited snowfall and night frosts and a few days later spring like conditions looks likely. 

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

What is looking more certain is the remarkable mild temperatures we will see after the high ridges over us and heads eastwards. 

I wonder if we will see 70f breached again like last year before February is out?

[Kentspur]

Visiting York/Yorkshire from 9th to 11th Feb assuming these charts this particular example from latest GEM 0z run- are close to true i.e snow over high ground in the North if I'm to see any of the white stuff would I be best taking a trip to the pennines bearing in mind I'll be staying in York itself?

[IDO]

Yesterday's D10 ECM chart was puzzling as it had a different take on the Pacific region than the GFS. The latter had been consistent with the high/ridge for sometime. This morning the ECM moves inline with the GFS take. 

That helps with the probability of that nasty storm around D8-D10 and both have Scotland at risk ATM:

The uppers are more in line with what we expect, ECM 12z D10 chart was seemingly overdoing as usual. Though subject to change as even subtle kinks in the flow could affect the potency.

The GFS op in FI maybe effected by algorithms from a background signal again:

op> mean>

With the tPV less organised and heights in higher-lat, though not really of help for the UK in the short-term. These charts do pop up now and then and have been false dawns so far this winter; garbage-in, garbage-out. We need a few runs to see if the ghost in the machine is up to its old tricks.

After D10 less forcing in our locale from the tPV chunk so the pattern could edge north, as of the mean, but that is just probability as the op keeps the jet close to the post D8 charts. The ensembles are fluid in scope so difficult to be confident post-D10, nothing cold yet but a split between cooler and milder options in my locale:

Hopefully the GFS is onto something for late February. Next week looking dry and cool down here before the potential stormy conditions for the north and much wetter down south for 4-5 days.

Edited February 1, 2020 by IDO

[shaky]

Hmmm more amplification increased on all 3 models last 24 hours!!!starting early on as well!!obviously not enough for snow but makes a difference to the position of the high!!its now forecast to be a little further north between 96 and 144 hours which means instead of the mild dross coming around it we now get a few crisp days and frosty nights!!just thought id mention it lol!

[SouthLondonCold]

While it's far too early to be talking about the specifics of any deep low, it looks like something could come up. With an incredibly strong vortex feeding cold air into the Atlantic and the jet stream running more south than usual, it looks kind of inevitable something nasty is going to crop up in the jet stream.

 Just look at that jetstream on the GFS!!

Edited February 1, 2020 by SouthLondonCold

[IDO]

Interesting, the GFS 06z adds more weight to the kink in the flow supporting a more potent attack around D8:

06z>0z>

[Methuselah]

Another GFS run packed with potential:

    

Maybe it's time to consider investing in a new barbecue!?

[carinthian]

The far out run of the GFS still keeps that one heck of a slab of mid-latitude blocking right across the Northern Hemisphere. No wonder those cyclonic storms further north just bounce off keeping much of the good folk in the Land of Ode to Joy and Star Spangled Banners with Spring Like conditions.

C

Edited February 1, 2020 by carinthian

[Mr Frost]

Wild charts showing up in la la land (just for fun) again this morning - some of the weather highlights from the latest ECM and GFS run below:

 

 

I would certainly bank some of that!

Two months of Meteorological Winter down the drain for us all with barely any lowland snow to be seen! February is beginning with a frost in places tonight - it’s a start! 

Have a good Saturday all!

Edited February 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[E17boy]

Good afternoon peeps

Feels like a very springlike day today here in Walthamstow.  We had a bit of cloud this morning which cleared to give some lovely blue sky and it feels very mild in the southwesterly. 

From the models it all seems a bit of a mixed bag going forward. Looks as if there will be weather systems crossing us in the next few  days then a brief cold encounter before high pressure comes over for a few days. There after indications are that the jet is likely to fire up again and we will be back to the onslaught of the Atlantic. The models seem to be toying around with the pattern in the next week after this it all seems a bit messy, but we will see where things go. Could we still have time left just to see a snowflake especially us down here in the south. I think for me it's come to this that even seeing a few flakes fall will at least satisfy my desire and frustration, taking into account what the winter has so far delivered.

Alas I say this with a deep sigh today is 1st of February my memory goes back to 2009 it was a Sunday exactly on this date and was there so much excitement in the air for us coldies then. We had strong Easterly winds coming from Siberia and snow showers started packing from the east. By that evening a lot of the Southest was a whiteout. The next day the bus system in London even came to a halt and there was so much to enjoy with a wonderful winter wonderland scenery.  Look at today where we are so many years later .

anyway peeps that was just a short visit to memory lane, when we will be able to see the reality of that again who knows. Time is now running out the days are getting longer and the suns strenght is picking up. If we are to even see something remotely wintry something has to give now in the next few weeks. Otherwise non of us will want to remember this winter. We will always live in that hope which is the word MAYBE and we will cling on to the final couple of weeks that will mark the end of our search for this season.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IS ALMOST NEAR THE END

wishing you all a great afternoon stay safe 

regards

 

[Zak M]

Blimey!

Edited February 1, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

ECM 0z clusters are an absolute shocker!  Here at T216, T240:

It's pretty much guaranteed we're going to get pummelled, the angle of attack is still open to some latitude, with  cluster 3 perhaps pulling in the coldest air.  But the blue border on all of them says it all - this is +NAO on speed...

Moving on, T300, T360:

Some respite with cluster 2 possibly, and it's mid Feb by then.

It will be interesting to see how any storm systems actually present in the reliable, and whether back edge snow is a possibility for some, if colder uppers can be drawn in.  Obviously, this more likely the further north and with altitude.  

Interesting times, although not quite what I'd wanted for February.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Got to agree with Mike's post above... Things look like being stired up quite alot over the next couple of weeks... Infact it looks down right stormy at times, but what interests me is the possibility of a W/NW airstream at times which could pack a punch going by the deep cold situated directly above us. Yes it could be marginal with higher areas favoured, but perhaps at least something more notable than so far this miserable winter!! Expect a few surprises in the coming week or 2.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Lowest pressure values from the latest GEFS for here

936 hpa   949 hpa   947 hpa   950 hpa   

945 hpa   there are also quite a few around 950/955 hpa on the GEM ensembles.

[Nick F]

28 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Infact it looks down right stormy at times, but what interests me is the possibility of a W/NW airstream at times which could pack a punch going by the deep cold situated directly above us. Yes it could be marginal with higher areas favoured, but perhaps at least something more notable than so far this miserable winter!! Expect a few surprises in the coming week or 2.

Depends where the upper trough axis digs, if it digs over Europe, then yes we would be exposed to cold zonality at least, but if the trough axis digs further west over the Atlantic, then we are more likely to end up in Tm airmass in SWly flow.

Ensemble means indicating the TPV extended out from the arctic towards NW Europe, some quite low height anomalies over NE Atlantic/NW Europe on medium-extended range. GFS especially is often keen to model the cold uppers in the medium range, but as many are aware it has a cold-bias at this range, so would be wary of the prolonged cold Pm airmasses it shows, because often the GFS ends up correcting the trough axis further west, with the UK ending up on the mild side of the baroclinic zone. But we'll see ...

[Allseasons-Si]

The MJO quickly moving into Phase 6 then hopefully amplify into Phase 7

 @Kirkcaldy Weather,that first one is a real crisp packet blower^