Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

yes please!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

To Me it looks like we will eventually get a battle between the bitter cold in the North vs the mild uppers in the south for a time and then I really do think we could end with something more cold than just a polar maritime zonal flow. It does nothing for my area a zonal flow has the pennies get in the way lol. Where has an Easterly we get convection of the north sea. When we get something more colder is the question. This year i won't throw in the pram until at least the 1st of April. Due to the fact the vortex looks angry this year. Roll on the 6z gfs run. 

[Methuselah]

Are @Bristle boy and yours truly imagining things, or is everyone-else in denial? Tell me there's not an exceptional amount (for the time of year) of warm uppers, away to the SW, S and SE...?

    

Edited January 31, 2020 by General Cluster

[E17boy]

THANKS EUROPE 

So many times we have relied on you to go into a deep freeze but you have not done it this time. Even Mr Beast from the East has not managed to get anywhere across near us. You have already restricted the free movement of cold because of this the price we have had to pay for the mild wind and rain from the Atlantic this winter has been high. 

Just like to give you a final thank you for our trade and goods you sent to us from Siberia in late February 2018 and not forgetting 2009 and 2010. Our coldie customers in the U.K. Had their demands fulfilled . 

Seeing our trade agreement this year has not worked there are many dissatisfied coldies who have waited since autumn for Siberian imports and the rest of the season looks bleak for cold imports. With this in view it's with great regret we accept Brexit us coldies are out tonight.

thanks from campaigners for free movement of cold

[Mr Frost]

35 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Are #Bristle boy and yours truly imagining things, or is everyone-else in denial? Tell me there's not an exceptional amount (for the time of year) of warm uppers, away to the SW, S and SE...?

    

It is Winter though Pete - most of us are looking NW, N and NE. 

In Summer we don’t look NW, N and NE for cold uppers... (Well apart from @ANYWEATHER - hope you are well mate)

As usual we are on the edge when it comes to anything wintry or Spring like (warmth/sunshine) - joys of living in the UK and Ireland at this time of year.

Others have summed up the outlook so not much too add - only annoying thing for me is that the mild temperatures this Winter have always brought low cloud, rain and dull/dank days. (Warm rain/cold rain - I’ll pass on both)

Today for example it’s currently 11c and absolutely hosing down with rain! I would have no issue with the milder weather if it brought sunshine and pleasant feeling days! (Never seems to happen IMBY at this time of year)

In the meantime I shall pray that these latest GFS charts become reality! 
 

Even in a crap Winter like this - small windows of opportunity do arrive now and then! 

I bet snow lovers living in the South West/South of England wish they could turn back the clock to this time/day last year...

Have a good day everyone!

Edited January 31, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

It is Winter though Pete - most of us are looking NW, N and NE. 

In Summer we don’t look NW, N and NE for cold uppers... (Well apart from @ANYWEATHER - hope you are well mate)

As usual we are on the edge when it comes to anything wintry or Spring like (warmth/sunshine) - joys of living in the UK and Ireland at this time of year.

Others have summed up the outlook so not much too add - only annoying thing for me is that the mild temperatures this Winter have always brought low cloud, rain and dull/dank days. (Warm rain/cold rain - I’ll pass on both)

Today for example it’s currently 11c and absolutely hosing down with rain! I would have no issue with the milder weather if it brought sunshine and pleasant feeling days! (Never seems to happen IMBY at this time of year)

In the meantime I shall pray that these latest GFS charts become reality! 
 

Even in a crap Winter like this - small windows of opportunity do arrive now and then! 

I bet snow lovers living in the South West/South of England wish they could turn back the clock to this time/day last year...

Have a good day everyone!

Sorry Mr F...I think I'd forgotten!

[Snowy L]

This is why I laugh at those who say winter hasn't even started yet when people complain I'm December. History tells us if it's a bad start, it's overwhelmingly likely to be a bad middle and ending too. You just knew it would be a write off when the PV got its act together in late November and perfectly synchronized with the troposphere.

Worrying signs for future winters when background signals like deep solar minimum and transition to east QBO haven't even made a fraction of a dent on the vortex. There is another big player that we are completely oblivious to. Who knows what it is.

Edited January 31, 2020 by Snowy L

[jules216]

The northerly that was forecast for UK few days ago will be gladly received by us next week. Mind you it will be transient, now in a state where I am happy to pick up crumbs  this poor winter gives.

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

This is why I laugh at those who say winter hasn't even started yet when people complain I'm December. History tells us if it's a bad start, it's overwhelmingly likely to be a bad middle and ending too. You just knew it would be a write off when the PV got its act together in late November and perfectly synchronized with the troposphere.

Worrying signs for future winters when background signals like deep solar minimum and transition to east QBO haven't even made a fraction of a dent on the vortex. There is another big player that we are completely oblivious to. Who knows what it is.

It's not oblivious - the Met/ECM etc all put out their long range winter forecasts for a mild +NAO winter mainly based on the record IOD event in late autumn/early winter. There was a tweet floating round somewhere that reference this, and it's proved to be bang on. Perhaps at the strength it was it's a major factor to consider in the future if it should materialise again. It simply overpowered everything else and primed the atmosphere for low pressure over the pole.


 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's not oblivious - the Met/ECM etc all put out their long range winter forecasts for a mild +NAO winter mainly based on the record IOD event in late autumn/early winter. There was a tweet floating round somewhere that reference this, and it's proved to be bang on. Perhaps at the strength it was it's a major factor to consider in the future if it should materialise again. It simply overpowered everything else and primed the atmosphere for low pressure over the pole.


 

I think that even the record IOD event can't fully explain the complete lack of cold spells so far this winter and we only have one month left but the outlook is very poor. Until recently, I was using winter 1997/8 as the benchmark of a horrid winter but even that did give a cold spell or two and some snow in December. 

Looking at the 6z gfs, it looks like the best we can hope for now is some cool zonality which can give some snow on the hills from time to time.

[IDO]

Amazing how consistent the models become when we are stuck in groundhog-day, when major NH features dominate. The GFS 0z and 06z:

I could post yesterday's charts as well. So those expecting anything to change quickly are going to be disappointed I would think. The Pacific High oscillating, so quasi-ridge, but enough to sustain a wedge of heights in the Arctic region to maintain that twin-tPV. We can see the omnipotent westerly undercurrent with the stream of HP cells circulating the low-lats feeding the two-pronged highs (Pacific and Iberian) in the ebb and flow. Possibly joined by the returning Russian/Siberian high further in FI.

Looks stormy, wet at times, alternating cool and average, once the HP cell falls in the westerly flow late next week. For crofters and mountain goats maybe some white stuff, Scotland primed for some sustained heavier stuff if not downgraded (north/south split of sorts).

The big question is how quickly will the tPV lose its power, they say the bigger they are, the bigger they fall, so there is hope that mid-February after raging for over 6-weeks it may call it quits quicker than we expect? That is my crumb of comfort at the moment!

[mb018538]

In times such as these, you have to look to the longer term to find a way out.....unfortunately there doesn't seem to be one at the moment.



ECM (and the GFS too) long range locked in on a deep trough for the next 15 days. We've probably got 2 weeks of winter left to salvage something.

 

[Man With Beard]

This is not pretty. A low with central pressure below 940mb!!

Very unusual to see such widespread gales - could be problems if verified

What's a bit scary is that it is not likely to be an outlier - the ECM D10 got below 940mb just north of Scotland, and what about this for a mean; 965mb MEAN pressure at D10 - really not seen that before. There'd probably be "runners" along the southern flank that could cause trouble.

 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is not pretty. A low with central pressure below 940mb!!

Very unusual to see such widespread gales - could be problems if verified

What's a bit scary is that it is not likely to be an outlier - the ECM D10 got below 940mb just north of Scotland, and what about this for a mean; 965mb MEAN pressure at D10 - really not seen that before. There'd probably be "runners" along the southern flank that could cause trouble.

 

It would be nice if a runners could bring some wintry interest to break up the boredom. 

Again, incredible charts for February - very 2014esque! Seems the polar night is lasting longer this year.... Even with downgrades to the strength of these turno lows, they’d still be significant in wind terms. The only plus side is that rain belts would move through pretty quickly rather than get stuck over the country like in the stagnant southwesterly setups.

[That ECM]

If it’s not going to be cold then let it be calm and mild please. No, after next week it looks like blowing a gale and hammering down often in 14 I had to ask the neighbour for my daughters trampoline back I fear i might need to repeat that request. The only good news? It’s probably time I had another conversation with the neighbours

[Methuselah]

Och well, it looks like my chionophilia will have to go unrequited for another year. 

But, looking on the bright side, should the tPV shrink poleward by only 500 miles or so, we could find ourselves looking forward to one of the warmest March-September periods on record?

    

 

 

[Tim Bland]

One of these lows could be a snow maker if they dig far enough south?...#straws #clutching 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

One of these lows could be a snow maker if they dig far enough south?...#straws #clutching 

That would have a very good chance of causing blizzards with 500mb heights that low and 850s just about good enough. Never going to happen, but interesting none the less!

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

In times such as these, you have to look to the longer term to find a way out.....unfortunately there doesn't seem to be one at the moment.



ECM (and the GFS too) long range locked in on a deep trough for the next 15 days. We've probably got 2 weeks of winter left to salvage something.

 

That's the trouble on a winter like this.The light at the end of the tunnel turns out to be a (zonal) train coming the other way.

[nick sussex]

For those hoping for some PM flows .

For that you need a PV which is more disrupted with some small wedges of heights normally towards the ne to help direct the jet more se .

A rounded PV blob isn’t going to deliver anything , regardless of what the GFS might show at longer range .

The bias is well known regarding the GFS in these set ups and also applies to a lesser degree with the other longer range outputs.

Edited January 31, 2020 by nick sussex

[frosty ground]

Random ensemble alert, posed because the 850's are incredible considering he pattern it is showing.

[Tim Bland]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For those hoping for some PM flows .

For that you need a PV which is more disrupted with some small wedges of heights normally towards the ne to help direct the jet more se .

A rounded PV blob isn’t going to deliver anything , regardless of what the GFS might show at longer range .

The bias is well known regarding the GFS in these set ups and also applies to a lesser degree with the other longer range outputs.

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

35 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Random ensemble alert, posed because the 850's are incredible considering he pattern it is showing.

Interesting chart. Maybe it’s really an Easterly flow disguised as a Westerly.

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

One of these lows could be a snow maker if they dig far enough south?...#straws #clutching 

And even better, your roof will get blown off so you won't even need to go outside to experience the blizzard. Mean winds verging on Cat 2 hurricane strength just a stones throw from Cornwall 6 hours earlier:

I have a bad feeling about the week after next - somewhere is going to get a mighty storm I feel. 

 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Nothing at all for fans of deep cold and prolonged wintry weather in the current output for much of February and indeed into March contrary to my first thoughts and hopes.

We do see an intriguing change in the jet stream as it moves further south to be moving across southern Britain which would mean more frequent colder PM incursions into northern Britain and the likelihood of some considerable snowfall for Scottish mountains. Lower down and further south just rain and wind for most.

The Azores HP cells push up from the SW but cannot progress north because of the strength of the jet fuelled by the TPV so collapse across southern Britain into the continent.

I'm not enthused by the strat either - warmings simply push the TPV back into its usual home where it currently looks fixed into March.

The interest will be if we can get periods of negative alignment in the trough to bring in some colder PM air but as the HP heads east the tilt turns back positive and TM air returns.