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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
5 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.

But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.

forget about Feb not going to happen just take a look at the AO that's the only thing you really need to look at as it's very accurate.

ao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Where is the Siberian high this year?

On a summer holliday  

Sry but im very disappointed also that this season nothing can go good ......a weird idea

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .

The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA  low .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .

The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .

Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .

Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! 

I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .

Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold ! 

 

Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet.

So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable  weather.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

No back to 88/89 ! That was a horror show of epic proportions . 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
8 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

Screenshot_20200130_222702_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.e3de4d61cadc97d1c18f9dacf9f46247.jpg

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

The chart below this week produced the image below, so the above i say yes please sir 4 bags full.

gfsnh-2020012712-0-6.png

Knock 270120.jpg

gfs-1-228.png

gfsnh-0-222.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No back to 88/89 ! That was a horror show of epic proportions . 

 

10 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. 

 

Have I travelled back in time to december?? 

Yes Nick - these charts showing NW flows whilst they don't really float my boat as it usually ends up 2 inches of slush here, you could get lucky and get snow as far south as London with Cheshire gap streamers and a 6 inch fall not out the question here if i got very lucky so at least snow is showing, but as you say they rarely verify thats the problem, but the charts you see on GFS around 216 sometimes where the prevailing wind direction is N of West are maybe not the best but not as bad as 88/89 or 13/14.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
56 minutes ago, Dennis said:

still time to go to look better.....

 

image.thumb.png.aa71be6d2648323299819afb1d95c2ff.png

Thanks Dennis

as you are the only one to touch up on this

the ICON is more amplified at 120 than the 12z

18z 120 v's 126 12z

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.ad8a2c6f248a75356bbbae547d4f74fd.pngiconnh-0-126.thumb.png.09f16752eaa0fec9334aca16e888320d.png

maybe there is leg room in those trousers.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

The below chart this week produced the image below, so the above i say yes please sir 4 bags full.

 

This one gives you a right belting.

image.thumb.png.f88b8e7bd7e3c0c9bd6a667194367364.png

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks Dennis

as you are the only one to touch up on this

the ICON is more amplified at 120 than the 12z

18z 120 v's 126 12z

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.ad8a2c6f248a75356bbbae547d4f74fd.pngiconnh-0-126.thumb.png.09f16752eaa0fec9334aca16e888320d.png

maybe there is leg room in those trousers.

thnx -the ICON model 18z showed the ideas of GFS6z and a EC model this morning

hope to make a block longer than 1 day

image.thumb.png.cd20d4cefdad5b6553265788e94f65db.pngimage.thumb.png.453d36fe38011a39fe9c8232936fbde3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Where is the Siberian high this year?

It's in the making on this run,it would force the jet more southerly on a NW>SE trajectory i would of thought

watch this space.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
28 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet.

So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable  weather.

Andy

The 18z is a good example of true cold zonality, some mouthwatering snow totals for Northern Ireland and Cumbria and the North Pennines.

image.thumb.png.2d57e08874c206d450dab89aee7aa462.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 18z is a good example of true cold zonality, some mouthwatering snow totals for Northern Ireland and Cumbria and the North Pennines.

image.thumb.png.2d57e08874c206d450dab89aee7aa462.png

This is probably the closest the UK is getting towards a winter for the foreseeable. The Ski resorts may finally have some positive trade over the coming weeks.

This winter so far has been incredible, with the beginning starting way back in October and nothing much changing since then... an extended Autumn!

Like other have said, there is a lot of cold air bottled over the Arctic and eventually it will head towards us and the low latitudes as the sPV and tPV breakdown for their season end. Whether this comes in time for the end of February or March remains to be seen.

One increasing chance is that spring may end up on the cool side, which I think would be the final nail in the coffin...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

I no not model related but this gives you an idea of our climate and others been mild. My stepdad has an apartment in southern Spain place called benalmedina near malaga. Average temp for April is 17oC and yesterday it was 23oC so it ain't just us experiencing the mild weather. Also they had high winds last week due to high pressure been in control here. And lows going south towards Spain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
25 minutes ago, Dean E said:

This is probably the closest the UK is getting towards a winter for the foreseeable. The Ski resorts may finally have some positive trade over the coming weeks.

This winter so far has been incredible, with the beginning starting way back in October and nothing much changing since then... an extended Autumn!

Like other have said, there is a lot of cold air bottled over the Arctic and eventually it will head towards us and the low latitudes as the sPV and tPV breakdown for their season end. Whether this comes in time for the end of February or March remains to be seen.

One increasing chance is that spring may end up on the cool side, which I think would be the final nail in the coffin...

My thoughts on this never ending winter crap train is we will keep getting cold zonal flows thru the first half of Feb. Maybe a few sleet showers if your lucky then boom. Winter will start like never before. And we will be begging for the snow to melt. I can just see it happening. Have faith coldies it will happen soon. Longer range predictions MJO. AO etc go out of the window in this day and age. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

Lmfao with WINTERS DONE for frog sake I am 49 and I seen some very good harsh winters back in the 70s 80s and the majority of the good cold spell were in February exepet 78, 79... Also 82 I believe, as for 2010 the beast from the east that was an other small cold snap in my area Powder snow and the biggest drift in a ritual area about 4 foot ?️bring back a proper easterly with 12 foot drifts and proper snowball snow, it will come... When? But Winters not over yet at all..... In my trained . Its a coming ?️?️?️?️?️ in Winter we trust ❄️☃️?️?️?️

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Still lots of spread on the ens for South Yorkshire my area from the 6th of Feb etc some hitting the - 8 850hpa cold enough for snow if conditions are correct dew point etc. This is from the cold zonal I'd suggest so probs be downgraded by then. 

t850South_Yorkshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I so hope for a lovely cold and snowy period in winter.

Never mind reality, I don't think I've ever known a winter like this where even the models in FI have offered so little promise.

Maybe the models are improving?

Nonetheless, on those occasions where they do offer up the prospect of something mode Narnia-like, I find the recent history leading up to what they are portraying plays a big part in their credibility.  To me, if models start portraying WAA invading Greenland when it's failed to get anywhere near it in the previous weeks, they are not to be believed,   Like  the experience of 1947 tells us, something magical can happen out of the mildest of winter periods.  But that winter was not without its previous cold spells, arising from temporarily successful attempts  to introduce a pattern of weather that eventually established itself.

These potential cold spells the models have flirted with, as far and few between as they have modeled this winter, do not stand up to scrutiny when you consider they portray something that has consistently failed to materialize to any degree in the previous weeks, let alone to the 'tipping point' degree of what would drastically change the weather on a long term basis.

Once I thought the existence of so much high pressure consistently around gave us a shot of a real winter.  It just fell in the wrong place.  Nothing to do with climate change or anything. The UK has had plenty such winters  in the past and will again in the future.  

I think we might get a couple of very late cold snaps this time around, but I see this winter as stuck in a rut. What we have is what we will have more or less for the majority of it.

C'est la vie.  Next year will be very very different!

 

 

 

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
16 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Fun and games in NE Canada/Hudson Bay. 500mb heights !!

 

image.thumb.png.36d2a42bd539bfbe865c8af8d28e1e20.png

Thats good to know for us in the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Another day and no real change. Zonal for the next 16-days, bar the brief mini-ridge/topple in the flow. Subtle changes in FI; the Pacific high moderates after D13, the Russian high is filling and Iberian heights remain on the op and mean. So any NW’ly from around then is better sourced rather than earlier which is moderated by a westerly influence, though within that ebb and flow of milder sectors. All out in la-la land so subject to variability. I would say that reasonable confidence in the next 2-weeks.

Post-mid-February if extrapolating the D16 mean doesn’t look promising:

1968073676_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.54d321eba22e6b6021a1908a9e455b8a.png  graphe6_1000_298_152___.thumb.png.b0c2d8ec9be5849fe7de52ae88981162.png

^^^ The 2m temps for my locale sums it up sadly, this being peak-winter potential!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I so hope for a lovely cold and snowy period in winter.

Never mind reality, I don't think I've ever known a winter like this where even the models in FI have offered so little promise.

Maybe the models are improving?

Nonetheless, on those occasions where they do offer up the prospect of something mode Narnia-like, I find the recent history leading up to what they are portraying plays a big part in their credibility.  To me, if models start portraying WAA invading Greenland when it's failed to get anywhere near it in the previous weeks, they are not to be believed,   Like  the experience of 1947 tells us, something magical can happen out of the mildest of winter periods.  But that winter was not without its previous cold spells, arising from temporarily successful attempts  to introduce a pattern of weather that eventually established itself.

These potential cold spells the models have flirted with, as far and few between as they have modeled this winter, do not stand up to scrutiny when you consider they portray something that has consistently failed to materialize to any degree in the previous weeks, let alone to the 'tipping point' degree of what would drastically change the weather on a long term basis.

Once I thought the existence of so much high pressure consistently around gave us a shot of a real winter.  It just fell in the wrong place.  Nothing to do with climate change or anything. The UK has had plenty such winters  in the past and will again in the future.  

I think we might get a couple of very late cold snaps this time around, but I see this winter as stuck in a rut. What we have is what we will have more or less for the majority of it.

C'est la vie.  Next year will be very very different!

 

 

 

I used to think that when we had these sorts of winters in the late eighties, but the next year often proved to be the same.

 

We will probably see this sort of pattern set in by the end of November and one of the experts will say 'this was always going to be a backloaded winter'.....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

A colder day or two Tuesday/Wednesday next week before normal service resumes.

image.thumb.png.90898dc30617414ba090064f8ddbbdac.png


Back to mild, wet and windy. Strong to very strong vortex as we head towards mid February.


image.thumb.png.0841b233f4924739afef39c5bfb80484.pngimage.thumb.png.44ea85e23715dfb4bbf5ca390128ac86.pngimage.thumb.png.dd597f506fcdeffdb930a69b59138102.pngimage.thumb.png.63d8897d3de59a58d082a0cd632d0d2b.png
 

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