Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[nick sussex]

The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .

The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA  low .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .

The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .

Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .

Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! 

I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .

Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold ! 

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

Waiting to see when the pattern change shows in the models.. 

Been waiting since November

[ALL ABOARD]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before .

The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA  low .

In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks .

The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify .

Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold .

Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! 

I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north .

Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold ! 

 

Absoluetly insane nick. 

Not to say it will come off mind you, but flicking through the GFS the PV is a monster. 

Low solar activity and above average sea ice the main factors ? 

[nick sussex]

39 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Absoluetly insane nick. 

Not to say it will come off mind you, but flicking through the GFS the PV is a monster. 

Low solar activity and above average sea ice the main factors ? 

Our pain is at least helping the polar bears ! The PV looks like it’s going into over drive .

At some point it will relent and when it does there’s a lot of cold bottled up in the Arctic , whether some of that gets released before the end of February hard to say .

Its not looking good at the moment but too soon to completely write the month off .

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z @ 120

ECM 12z @ 120

UKMO 12z @ 120

GEM 12z @ 120

Comparing the main 4 @ t120 . It is not great viewing . All we have is a 24 hour cold shot on 4th Feb ( maybe stretching into 5th ) . Cold down the East coast for a time but that is about it. All over by Feb 6th and back to South Westerlies thereafter, 

[Daniel*]

A kick in the gut for coldies westerlies travelling thousands of kilometres and look at that baroclinic zone. 

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A kick in the gut for coldies westerlies travelling thousands of kilometres and look at that baroclinic zone. 

Quite incredible stuff for February. The PV should’ve started its collapse quite a while ago yet if anything it’s returning to December strength! Can’t see this AND a high pressure dominated February a la UKMO forecast unless the jet pulls well north!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 12z @ 120

ECM 12z @ 120

UKMO 12z @ 120

GEM 12z @ 120

Comparing the main 4 @ t120 . It is not great viewing . All we have is a 24 hour cold shot on 4th Feb ( maybe stretching into 5th ) . Cold down the East coast for a time but that is about it. All over by Feb 6th and back to South Westerlies thereafter, 

Yes, was just about to post something similar, yes there is a small window next Tuesday on most models with cool, I'd hardly say cold, uppers.  And that's your winter folks.

It's been hard work watching the models this winter, I mean we knew from the seasonal modelling that we were up against a headwind from the get go, but once the trop and strat vortexes coupled mid Dec, there hasn't really been anything cold in the reliable worth talking about.  

The one glimmer of hope was the possibility of a split SSW that showed up a week or so ago, but that went west as well, and there is currently no hope of any help from the strat, GFS and GEFS T384 now shows diddly squat:

I think my next post in here may well, unfortunately, be first thoughts on summer 2020, in a little while.  

[booferking]

Polar North-Westerly looks to be the only chance of snow this year delivers for northern & western regions unfortunately no good elsewhere sure been tough winter snow wise.

[mb018538]

What a terrible set of runs. We’ve all had enough of wind, rain and endless grey skies and westerlies....and it looks like we’re all set for another fortnight at least of the stuff. ECM clusters all  +NAO, very unsettled with a deep trough close to the UK right out to day 15. Buckle up.

[Mark wheeler]

Oh well! At least the last few days have been intriguing from a coldies point of view , Of course getting it to verify is much better , for now it’s not meant to be . Let’s hope another opportunity comes soon . Been great watching the last few days even if for some of us we have not got the result we want .

[Jordan S]

Well the next few days are unsettled and mild for most. There is the risk of some snow to lower levels of Scotland for a time on Sunday this could be quite heavy too as a weather front heads erratically northeast snow possible for the hills of Northern England and northern Ireland for a time aswell elsewhere rain some of it quite heavy moving eastward. 

Dwd Icon..

 

Arpege.. 

Gfs.. 

Into next week a cold north westerly wind expected to begin the week with wintry showers effecting mainly the Northwest of England, Northern Ireland and Scotland through Monday and Tuesday with then a shift to more Northern and Eastern England by Wednesday with a brief northerly though by this stage the high pressure to the west slipping south and east cutting this cold flow off and by the end of next week becoming much milder again but likely becoming more settled for central and southern parts of the country with northern areas remaining unsettled.

Monday..

Tuesday.. 

Wednesday.. 

Friday 7th..

Saturday 8th..

Sunday 9th..

Although a while away the following week towards mid February there is at present a strong signal for it to become very unsettled perhaps stormy more widely with a very strong jetstream  across the Atlantic. 

[Mr Frost]

From my West of Scotland point of view this is exactly what I want to see/happen!

ECM 240

 

GFS selected snow charts (Too many to choose from - very snowy run after these below)

 

I will take a Polar North Westerly everyday of the week - personal favourite! 

Only problem is they get watered down quite a bit when they arrive! These look our best shot of bringing wintry conditions within the next couple of weeks and beyond at the moment.

This would do for now and a nice warm up for the beast from the East arriving in March. 

Keep the faith UK and Ireland cold/snow lovers - only way is up after the crud we have had to endure so far! Keep those sledges to hand you just never know what could happen over the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Mr Frost

[mulzy]

37 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

From my West of Scotland point of view this is exactly what I want to see/happen!

ECM 240

 

GFS selected snow charts (Too many to choose from - very snowy run after these below)

 

I will take a Polar North Westerly everyday of the week - personal favourite! 

Only problem is they get watered down quite a bit when they arrive! These look our best shot of bringing wintry conditions within the next couple of weeks and beyond at the moment.

This would do for now and a nice warm up for the beast from the East arriving in March. 

Keep the faith UK and Ireland cold/snow lovers - only way is up after the crud we have had to endure so far! Keep those sledges to hand you just never know what could happen over the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

Modelling of the jet is always overplayed (i.e. modelled too far south) in these set-ups.

The ext EPS is horrific.  Very low heights in the Greenland locale along with significant Euro heights.  Pattern incredibly strong for a day 15 mean.  First half of Feb is a write off (quite likely all of Feb).

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by mulzy

[damianslaw]

So where are we this evening? somewhere different to where we were yesterday, and more akin to what was being shown early on the week, less of an amplified flow early next week, thanks to a projected less deepening of low pressure out of NE USA. We are left with a flatter solution with heights ridging through and into UK more quickly, perhaps a colder flow for 24 hrs or so 4-5 Feb. Thereafter, that PV looks to want to move into turbo gear as others have pointed out, which can only mean a very unsettled period then ahead, with strong winds/gales, bouts of heavy rain and generally mild.. some signs may see some colder polar maritime air at times, but as we've seen recently the potency of such blasts seems to have been reduced come nearer the time, with cold air digging down into the mid atlantic and jet riding more on a SW-NE path.

Would welcome thoughts from others reasons why PV wants to gain strength again, effects of MJO perhaps.

[Dennis]

still time to go to look better.....

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Dennis

[shaky]

Gfs 18z ouch!!!!!!!amplification completely gone at just 96 hours!!!

[nick sussex]

Just now, shaky said:

Gfs 18z ouch!!!!!!!amplification completely gone at just 96 hours!!!

Thankfully the stakes weren’t that high for coldies . The difference really is extending the mammoth cold spell from around one day to barely two !

 

[Bristawl Si]

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

Vile

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is the most zonal i have ever seen for 4 weeks until week 5 shows a very very slight signal for a ridge starting to move North into Scandi - this is the best i can do im afraid.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

And the rest....

[shaky]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is the most zonal i have ever seen for 4 weeks until week 5 shows a very very slight signal for a ridge starting to move North into Scandi - this is the best i can do im afraid.

Yup winter is done mate!!!!even with that higher anomaly to the east wont really make much of a difference it shall be start of.march by then and knowing our luck it will probably bring in warm south east winds from the med instead!!think we should be looking more forward to the warmth of spring now than any meaning full.cold and snow!!

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Early warm Spring beckons.

Many on here have ignored the warmth building to the South and South West of mainland Europe, instead focussing on the Usual cold to our North.

16c in Southern England come mid-Feb.

that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.

But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup winter is done mate!!!!even with that higher anomaly to the east wont really make much of a difference it shall be start of.march by then and knowing our luck it will probably bring in warm south east winds from the med instead!!think we should be looking more forward to the warmth of spring now than any meaning full.cold and snow!!

Agree winter is done but wouldn't go as far as that - still worth going right through to early April - April 6th (ish) 2012 brought 2 inches (admittedly slush) of snow - my biggest ever April fall possibly excluding Late April 81 but was too young to remember that - that was a royal dumping even as far South as the South Midlands.