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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  With all due respect Steve winter 1920 didn’t even start here there is no game to be over because we were never in the game to start with all that has been is just some false dawns.  

You posting from the grave

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, FI and GFS switching between an Iberian or Euro high anomaly as the westerly flow drags HP cells from the Pacific ad infinitum. Subtle differences for the UK, but for southern UK pretty poor either option.

0z:gfsnh-0-342.thumb.png.ce1b0a19f6cabc038653308381e997c3.png 06z:gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.dc4be9afa48f8340ee3cc476575f8c9e.png

I don't think the Pacific is the 'problem' IDO; the last 12-month-or-so's weather has been dominated by a quasi-persistent European anticyclone: IMO, northward WAA into mainland Europe is what's been making the difference...?

h500slp.png    image.thumb.png.bd68e188e1849535855912be3878ac30.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I don't think the Pacific is the 'problem' IDO; the last 12-month-or-so's weather has been dominated by a quasi-persistent European anticyclone: IMO, northward WAA into mainland Europe is what's been making the difference...?

h500slp.png    image.thumb.png.bd68e188e1849535855912be3878ac30.png

image.png

Yes, the chicken or egg conundrum, a Pacific high by nature will lead to a sympathetic high in the euro region and then a further one in the Russian area. Cause and effect but who is the real culprit? Leave that to greater minds than mine and of course you are right, for me and you, all that matters is that "quasi-persistent European anticyclone" ruining the chances of longer-term cold.

The control and mean not really supportive of the more amplified GFS 06z ridge, no surprise, as it is at the extreme end of the envelope:

NW>graphe4_0000_232_10___.thumb.png.1ff68bc9b1757c80475c71c3cf4303fb.pnggraphe3_0000_232_10___.thumb.png.6535c5cc6386e46d444277ae66bc1e99.pnggens-21-1-120.thumb.png.bf7c4245f96bac7da44e22b7ee3b7f2d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
1 hour ago, Chris101 said:

Still plenty of time for the inevitable tweaks in all of the outputs in the next few days.

Any small change could lead to a bit of longevity, slightly colder feed.

When the ridge builds it will do as it wants and not what the models say it should.

Well put mate

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

At some point in the next few weeks the extreme cold north of our shores will move somewhere and give somebody a battering after the mild we are having. Let's hope its our shores that cop it. Regarding what is happening at the moment. I still don't think any of the models especially gfs has decided what the winter storm in North East usa will do. Fantasy island for meis at 96hrs nothing more. We should I hope have clarification by this evening I should hope. Its Thursday today and we are talking about what will. Happen next Tuesday. Too far off for me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Models pretty much on the same page now a brief window of cold spanning a couple of days -

However the overwhelming trend from the GFS is to work towards another extreme +AO event 

Some +4 to +6 values appearing around day 10 onwards.

That almost seals the deal on winter 19/20 for the SE / E - The pattern may be a bit more favourable for the NW / NI & Scotland but I fear it game over for here.

The AO has been bonkers since the start of 2020:

image.thumb.png.bea719ab65d8b036334dab0811856b0d.png

2 weeks of +3/+4 sigma, a lull, followed by another extreme uptick into February.

Charts like this below at day 11/12 are ridiculous for mid February, and would certainly fit into the +5/+6 sig category. About as angry a PV/+AO event as you can get for this stage of winter.

image.thumb.png.501293a053a8021a88e48eda82b8127e.png

71% or above members of GFS ensembles are going for a strong vortex in the next 2 weeks. A large number of days are at 90-100% too.


image.thumb.png.70b5eb9b5df94456fb6994f2e629d194.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
45 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It's been notable how bottled up the Arctic cold has been this season and not just here.It is no consolation I know but a fair portion of mid latitude regions have seen this scenario also, hence warmer temperatures over NA and much of Europe and Scandinavia. 

The thing is though Phil...Northern Scandinavia has been in the freezer most of Winter. (As one would expect)

Scandinavia and parts of North America also had record breaking snowfalls at the beginning of Winter. (See @Kirkcaldy Weather Snow and Ice thread pictures/reports)

I know you are not comparing us to them...but even in a Winter with temperatures above average these areas still have big Winter snowfalls and well below freezing temperatures most of the time.

Current temperatures in most of Scandinavia.

3FBCEB40-7758-4637-BA3B-3A20B61AE4E7.thumb.png.c4a7d9328cc304b2262a7a0f37a1ccc6.png
 

Latest snow and ice cover.

C5CCFB2C-8B3D-44B9-B907-084E2BDAD690.thumb.gif.823f24787d10633f60b5286b526ea114.gif
 

I would sell my gran for just a day of those temperatures and snow cover over Northern Scandinavia and Iceland. 

As we all know the UK and Ireland basically feed off the scraps when it comes to cold/snow most years - this Winter so far it’s been down to the bare bones! 

Latest GFS run for example and this is the most UK and Ireland widespread snowfall chart I could find...

B7C8BE35-093D-4792-8D46-4CF155B82EAE.thumb.png.b2e3e3d01d30ad70d1abe2fbfa665cad.png
 

Winter up here in Scotland so far has been a mostly 400 meters and above affair - low ground snowfall has been slim pickings.  

We all have February/March left for a late Winter/early Spring UK/Ireland wide snow event - hopefully it delivers. (Bring on the warmth/convective weather from April 1st - that would be great!)

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

The thing is though Phil...Northern Scandinavia has been in the freezer most of Winter. (As one would expect)

Scandinavia and parts of North America also had record breaking snowfalls at the beginning of Winter. (See @Kirkcaldy Weather Snow and Ice thread pictures/reports)

I know you are not comparing us to them...but even in a Winter with temperatures above average these areas still have big Winter snowfalls and well below freezing temperatures most of the time.

Current temperatures in most of Scandinavia.

3FBCEB40-7758-4637-BA3B-3A20B61AE4E7.thumb.png.c4a7d9328cc304b2262a7a0f37a1ccc6.png
 

 

But pop a little south east

H/t Mike Rantanen

137 years of January temperatures in the island of Utö, Baltic sea. With two days left in the month, we can already say that the old record from 1930 will not only be broken, but totally shattered by about 1.4°C (2.52°F).

EPdpZiZX4AYMBr6.thumb.jpg.7fe3aa7815ab253dd6207b8973a4312f.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Just now, knocker said:

But pop a little south east

H/t Mike Rantanen

137 years of January temperatures in the island of Utö, Baltic sea. With two days left in the month, we can already say that the old record from 1930 will not only be broken, but totally shattered by about 1.4°C (2.52°F).

EPdpZiZX4AYMBr6.thumb.jpg.7fe3aa7815ab253dd6207b8973a4312f.jpg

 

Yes - read that.

My point is North America and Scandinavia still see big snowfalls and well below freezing temperatures as has happened this Winter. (Even in above average Winter months - mean temperatures)

The UK and Ireland just goes from one mild spell to a slightly less milder spell...

Anyways best leave it at that as I don’t want to take the thread off track...(I have realised it is now an extension of the Winter Moans/Ramps thread )

Look forward to you posting in here again come Spring/Summer @knocker

Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
16 minutes ago, knocker said:

But pop a little south east

H/t Mike Rantanen

137 years of January temperatures in the island of Utö, Baltic sea. With two days left in the month, we can already say that the old record from 1930 will not only be broken, but totally shattered by about 1.4°C (2.52°F).

EPdpZiZX4AYMBr6.thumb.jpg.7fe3aa7815ab253dd6207b8973a4312f.jpg

 

Indeed @knocker. Daytime max temperatures of -10c in the far north of Scandinavia aren't anything to write home about in the middle of winter. Most of Scandi has been miles above normal all winter, as charts like this show.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Indeed @knocker. Daytime max temperatures of -10c in the far north of Scandinavia aren't anything to write home about in the middle of winter. Most of Scandi has been miles above normal all winter, as charts like this show.

Pretty sad state of affairs.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

The thing is though Phil...Northern Scandinavia has been in the freezer most of Winter. (As one would expect)

Scandinavia and parts of North America also had record breaking snowfalls at the beginning of Winter. (See @Kirkcaldy Weather Snow and Ice thread pictures/reports)

I know you are not comparing us to them...but even in a Winter with temperatures above average these areas still have big Winter snowfalls and well below freezing temperatures most of the time.

Current temperatures in most of Scandinavia.

3FBCEB40-7758-4637-BA3B-3A20B61AE4E7.thumb.png.c4a7d9328cc304b2262a7a0f37a1ccc6.png
 

Latest snow and ice cover.

C5CCFB2C-8B3D-44B9-B907-084E2BDAD690.thumb.gif.823f24787d10633f60b5286b526ea114.gif
 

 

 

On 23/01/2020 at 12:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Agree with @Mattwolves a great post @Catacol from late autumn and through winter (so far) there have been either record cold temperatures or record snowfall or both in - parts of USA, Newfoundland, Scandinavia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, also snowfall events in Iceland and New Mexico / Arizona (desert areas) and below average temperatures in India so whilst we see the warm side of the climate change story too these cold events are still possible and IMO it is only a matter of time before the UK will see cold / snowfall events again, the million pound question will be when and that is often part of the enjoyment the thrill of the chase although this winter it does appear that the IOD and the coupling of the strat have scuppered our chances though with the IOD having weakened somewhat and an upcoming PV displacement likely hopefully we can salvage something that resembles winter.

add Kazakhstan to the list 

kazakhstan-nur-sultan-snow-jan-29-2020.j
WATCHERS.NEWS

Heavy snowfall and blizzard in Kazakhstan's capital city Nur-Sultan in January 2020 equaled the weather record in 1964, according to Kazgidromet Alua Sakhanova, the chief of the department...

  Not to get embroiled in a climate change debate but I think some tend to focus purely on the mild events when the fact is cold events are still happening, as I mentioned in the Scotland thread I am approaching a year without seeing snow here (1st Feb 2019) and current temperature here is 11.1 C (average for here in January should be 6.7 C ) so I am as desperate as any other coldie / snow lover for snowy charts to come to fruition. Also as I mentioned before the Norway record temperature was followed the next day by nearly a foot of snow in the same area.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just Model Output Discussion please in here, Thankyou.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Models pretty much on the same page now a brief window of cold spanning a couple of days -

However the overwhelming trend from the GFS is to work towards another extreme +AO event 

Some +4 to +6 values appearing around day 10 onwards.

That almost seals the deal on winter 19/20 for the SE / E - The pattern may be a bit more favourable for the NW / NI & Scotland but I fear it game over for here.

Pretty sure if I'd posted this id have been hung,drawn and three quartered?anyway I actually agree with Steve and his comments.the Pacific ridging and relentless PV are going no where.that said the med looks great watch for a southerly jet in june

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

Fingers crossed the 

12 z gfs UK mo and the ECM 

All show the high slightly more west 

Not impossible to have slight upgrades

So atleast some of us have a chance of some snow

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I think we are now at the range where the ICON (similar to 06z GFS) is going to model that ridge topple well:

anim_hnk1.gif

So nothing unusual within the context of this mediocre winter. I suppose just getting even more confirmation of the following post pattern is all we are looking at now. Whether is is a euro or Iberian high or combo?

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Probably another 4 weeks of this wretched pattern to continue over much of Europe, then as spring arrives the pattern will probably go into the complete opposite and another cold spring with March CET lower than January and February. 

Waiting to see when the pattern change shows in the models.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

12z gfs is showing possible wintery showers maybe evening some snow showers Eastern side of England and also south east England it’s no big freeze but some parts of south east England could see there first snow of the winter season.

D2FB0B0D-5F6B-448D-BF92-5EF81019627E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

At D10 with the strong Pacific high and a wedge of heights over the Arctic, different to the 06z, with the main vortex squeezing further within the Canadian region and could mean a stormier outlook:

1823025711_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.468efb0a41ed3e627736b7b7cc306cde.png 

Of course the modelling of any Arctic heights changes every run so JFF. Not sure this scenario will lead to any blocking in our region but another possible route towards mid February.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, IDO said:

At D10 with the strong Pavific high ane a wedge of heights over the Arctic, different to the 06z, with the main vortex squeezing further within the Canadian region and could mean a stormier outlook:

1823025711_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.468efb0a41ed3e627736b7b7cc306cde.png 

Of course the modelling of any Arctic heights changes every run so JFF. Not sure this scenario will lead to any blocking in our region but another possible route towards mid February.

It has pushed the colder air further south in the zonal flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Just now, frosty ground said:

It has pushed the colder air further south in the zonal flow.

Yes, I never comment on the uppers at that range as they can be over-amped. However, potential for snow showers for the usual suspects in that type of flow is taken. As for the S and SE, too early to speculate assuming it verifies like it is showing?

gfseu-1-282.thumb.png.9bbf793a5035fecd238fa3e188bb88f2.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, I never comment on the uppers at that range as they can be over-amped. However, potential for snow showers for the usual suspects in that type of flow is taken. As for the S and SE, too early to speculate assuming it verifies like it is showing?

gfseu-1-282.thumb.png.9bbf793a5035fecd238fa3e188bb88f2.png

It was only a few days ago you posted a comparison of Cold uppers at that range.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It was only a few days ago you posted a comparison of Cold uppers at that range.

For easterlies and Northerlies I like to mention them (IMBY'ism), but not from a NW'ly, as by the time they cross the ocean, then the UK, us in the south are usually feeding off scraps. But yes, not a bad run for the NW, N and West as the uppers stand, but 250h to go, and they rarely get colder as we get closer, the upcoming ridge highlights this. 

I must admit I am a bit bias towards my locale when cold and snow is concerned so I might not be politically correct in my comments viz the whole UK. For me, NW'lys are a bit underwhelming and I dismiss them rather easily. But in Oldham they may be more interesting so not a bad run for you. Though probably all change by the 18z! 

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